Eventual

California is continuing to deregulate insurance markets, a critical step to ensure sufficient supply of insurance for property owners. On Friday, the state provisionally approved another outsized insurance price increase, this time for State Farm, the state's largest insurance company. This trend continues to paint a clear picture for the future: Insurance pricing will remain stressed, while insurance availability will improve. Eventual and Premium Lock directly protects real estate owners against these stresses.

Pretty strange that people own real estate for a decade but have to settle for volatile monthly/annual operating expenses. Everyone loves fixed-rate debt, shouldn't operating expenses be predictable too?

Eventual just finished training our latest machine learning model this weekend and it's now twice as good at predicting property insurance growth compared to a commercial real estate analyst benchmark. Check out our 2024 Data Report to learn more about how we approach predicting the future.

Insurance unavailability impacts 3% of US homes. Fortunately, this number is falling (improving) as states deregulate pricing. At Eventual, we're focused on the more permanent, durable problem in climate and real estate: Insurance volatility and unaffordability. Premium Lock mitigates much of this stress, enabling real estate owners to have greater cash flow predictability and profitability.

Modeling premium growth without considering construction cost inflation is like cooking steak without 65% of the steak. What matters to real estate owners, insurance carriers and analysts is not inflation-agnostic rate, but actual dollars: what will premiums be next quarter, next year, and beyond? Based on first-of-its-kind data, Eventual is building the world's best multi-year projections of property insurance volatility.

I'm excited to welcome Daniel Lee to Eventual as Founding Software Engineer. Daniel previously developed software at Skilljar after earning his masters and bachelors from Georgia Tech. At Eventual, Daniel builds our transactions platform, which handles Premium Lock quoting, closing and payouts. Welcome to Eventual, Daniel!

California has some of the cheapest homeowners insurance in the country. For real estate owners, this reveals a fundamental truth: Rates (and therefore premiums) have a lot of room to grow in the coming years as regulators try to incentivize private carriers to return to writing new policies. Access these new data and more in Eventual's 2024 Data Review.

There's no free lunch in climate change, and California just proved it. As we've expected for the past month at Eventual, earlier today the state insurer-of-last-resort just received approval for a $1.0bn cash injection from private insurers to remain solvent after the January fires in Los Angeles. In the near-term, this great news for homeowners awaiting payouts to rebuild their lives. Medium-term, the math remains the same: Insurance premiums will rise as carriers face losses. Homeowners will be charged temporary supplemental fees to partially recoup insurer losses. Eventual is building Premium Lock for exactly this reason: Enabling long-term financial predictability and affordability in the face of climate change.

Amelia Dobronyi, CFA has joined Eventual, leading our pricing model design and deployment. Amelia previously traded options at Citadel and is now working closely with our data science functions. Welcome to the team, Amelia!

US real estate owners should be paying closer attention to tariffs for a surprising reason: Property insurance may get a lot more expensive. Insurance premiums typically increase in two ways: Higher coverage limits, or higher rates. From 2016-2023, construction cost inflation accounted for 70% of homeowners premium growth. Rate increased faster than limit only in 2024. With new tariffs on construction materials, replacement costs of structures will accelerate at the same time that rates are growing. Eventual solves this problem with Premium Lock, enabling multi-year insurance predictability without swapping carriers.