Enduring Investments

People seem to really like this one. If you know anyone at DOGE who should hear it, please forward it!

Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the Fed-Congress quid-pro-quo that has existed for decades now puts the FOMC in a sticky situation. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://lnkd.in/eU54Cg-C To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eNhpPMAB ???(we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://lnkd.in/eDA683EF

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October?2024)

I haven't posted a blog in a while, because I've been working on something. Something I think is pretty interesting.

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September?2024)

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy. Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic. ? NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://lnkd.in/eZQZQfqF) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eNhpPMAB ???(we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://lnkd.in/eDA683EF

The Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio. Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast! ? NOTES David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. (https://lnkd.in/ezMiRKnx ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://lnkd.in/eMAs58xx ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eNhpPMAB ???(we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://lnkd.in/eDA683EF

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is. ? NOTES Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012) ?(https://lnkd.in/eju3BDqc ) Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://lnkd.in/efgbK23H ) Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index????? (https://lnkd.in/eGr2iZJP ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://lnkd.in/eMAs58xx ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eNhpPMAB ???(we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://lnkd.in/eDA683EF

It's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode, the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's decision about whether to cut rates by 25bps or 50bps next week. Listen to find out why! ? NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://lnkd.in/eMAs58xx ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eNhpPMAB ???(we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://lnkd.in/eDA683EF

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August?2024)