DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd

Yesterday, the Ethiopian National Defense Force announced that it had eliminated over 300 fighters of the Amhara-based Fano militia. In the past years, I have met many people who have asked about the situation in Ethiopia. They wonder why one of the largest economies in Africa with great potential still has "centrifugal" forces that challenge the federal government in armed conflicts. In August 2022, I wrote the piece below to explain a major structural factor that may explain Ethiopia's challenge. Kindly take a read: "Ethiopia: Actually a "Confederation"; Officially a Federation. 1. Yesterday, BBC reported that a plane suspected to be delivering weapons to Tigrayan rebels in Northern Ethiopia was shot down by Ethiopian forces. 2. This is not the first time the central government of Ethiopia has fought a rebellion by one of its autonomous nations. Eritrea rebelled and subsequently broke away. 3. Ethiopia is one of the oldest states in the world. It traces its roots to the ancient Aksum civilization. Except for a short period when Italy under Benito Mussolini invaded, it was not colonized by any external power. It is a founder member of the UN. 4. For millennia, the country has had its own potent national security planning. This was proven in modern history when it defeated the Italian military in the battle of Adwa in the late 19th century. 5. However, the political structure of the state over the years presents a unique case for political scientists. The state has had its nationalities at the periphery wielding much political power relative to the center. 6. Regional interests, therefore, seem to trump state interests at the center. Interestingly, this is supported explicitly by the constitution of the country. It overtly grants the right to self-determination to all nationalities if they so wish. 7. This is uncommon elsewhere in the continent and the world. In 1994 the country went ahead to recognize the independence of Eritrea. It made Ethiopia a landlocked country. 8. Historically and geographically, the country has effectively been a confederation. For centuries, the location of the capital was by rotation. This appeared to be a system put in place to put the Kingdom together. 9. It took Emperor Menelik II to establish a permanent capital, Addis Ababa in the 19th century. The rugged topography of the country further entrenches a natural confederation. For years, Ethiopia's roads were in bad shape partly as a result of their ruggedness. This enhances peripheral independence. 10. The current war waged against the Tigrayans, though unfortunate, is a result of Ethiopia's unique political set-up. 11. Regional governments are created along ethnolinguistic lines." #ethiopia #africanunion #hornofafrica #africa #history #security Below: political map of Ethiopia.

The Africa Situation 1. Horn of Africa: The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has announced that it had killed over 300 Fano fighters in two days after clashing with the militia. According to the ENDF, the clashes occurred in the Amhara region in the north of the country. The Fano militia fought alongside the ENDF during the Tigray War. However, in early 2023, disagreement with the Ethiopian government eventually led to clashes with the ENDF in April that year. The group promotes Amhara nationalism to the displeasure of the federal government. 2. Southern Africa: Namibia swears in its first female president on Friday March 21, 2025. President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah promised to focus on economic diversification and employment as major domestic policies. On foreign policy, she vowed to continue Namibia's foreign policy with more vigor. She mentioned the need for sanctions imposed on Cuba, Venezuela and Zimbabwe to be removed. She also spoke on the right to self-determination for the people of Western Sahara and Palestinians. 3. West Africa: Nigerian customs officials have intercepted $193,000 cash hidden in a box of yogurt at the international airport in Abuja. According to reports, the cash was hidden in a luggage belonging to a passenger arrived from Saudi Arabia. The act was a violation of the country's financial regulations which, like many others, requires that amounts of the value are declared upon arrival. Nigeria has been mentioned among African countries that are challenged with financial irregularities including money laundering. 4. North Africa: Egypt has presented a new ceasefire proposal that sets a time frame for the release of hostages by Hamas and the subsequent withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The report, originally by Reuters, states that the United States has given an initial approval to the proposal as the war is escalating. The Israeli Defense Minister has warned of a heavy offensive and asked civilians to evacuate areas where Hamas is operating from. Israel has not commented on the matter. #security #stability #risk #africa unival group GmbH

Yesterday, I joined Inside Story on Al Jazeera English to discuss rebel advances amid the ‘Doha Agreement’ between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. This was my second interview with the agency this week. I joined two exceptional experts from Sweden and the United Kingdom. Rebels are seizing the opportunity to expand their space while talks look imminent. While this is a usual strategy played by warring factions, it is likely to complicate talks on the volatile situation. #security #peace #DRC #usa #eu #qatar #africa DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd unival group GmbH

The Africa Situation 1. Horn of Africa: Sudanese Arm Forces (SAF) have taken full control of the country's presidential palace in Khartoum. The RSF controlled the symbolic facility for a long period after the hostilities broke out in 2023. Heavy fighting in the capital during the period prompted the Sudanese administration to move the capital to Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. The taking of the facility from the RSF symbolizes the consolidation of recent gains made by the SAF. Sudanese officials announced that they also seized some weapons during the operation. Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed allays the fears of regional and international actors amid warnings of a possible war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Last week, a commander of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had expressed in an opinion piece about a possible war. He explained that an alliance between a breakaway faction of the TPLF and Eritrea could lead to the resumption of hostilities between the two countries. After decades of hostile relations, Mr. Amed signed a surprise peace agreement with his country's coastal neighbor. Despite recent concerns about the possibility of a return to the cold days, he assured on Thursday, March 20 that his administration would avoid any escalation with Eritrea. 2. North Africa: The President of Tunisia, Kais Saied has sacked the Prime Minister of the country amid migration and economic challenges. The head of government spent less than a year in office before being shown the exit. The Northern African country has been one of the countries along the southern Mediterranean coast from which migrants, mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, cross the sea to reach southern Europe. The perilous journey and the accompanying exploitation of migrants by human traffickers have attracted international attention. Tunisia has implemented policies (sometimes controversial) targeted at curbing the situation. The economy of the country is also saddled with debt and rising inflation. Tunisia practices a hybrid presidential system that gives the president the power to dissolve a government. 3. West Africa: Gold production in Mali went down by 23 per cent in 2024. This stood at 51 metric tons from 66.5 metric tons in 2023. The period saw new government policies and adversarial relations with foreign mining companies over new taxes. Also, the government banned artisanal mining which is largely unregulated and exploited by terror organizations in the country. This year the country has partially removed the ban and signed some deals with miners that signal stability in the sector in the coming years. 4. Central Africa: Rebels in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have said that the agreement reached between Rwanda and the DRC has no bearing on their military operations and political goals. The leader of the Congo River Alliance (AFC) stated that the agreement "does not concern" the rebels. #security #stability #risk #africa unival group GmbH

Just In: A major hurdle for the Qatar agreement. As I mentioned in my last post yesterday ( https://lnkd.in/e6sqhqXe) rebel forces have groups that are autonomous and with independent goals. I also wrote that in the past, there were some leaders in the current M23 who defied directives from Rwanda. https://lnkd.in/eHEHP5dS #security #Rwanda #DRC #Qatar unival group GmbH

The Africa Situation 1. Central Africa: M23 and allied rebels are advancing westward in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo despite the announcement of a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday. Although the Emir of Qatar had brokered an agreement between Rwanda and the DRC in a surprise move, the agreement is yet to be implemented. The rebels are likely making a push for more territories to gain an advantage during negotiations. 2. North Africa: The United Arab Emirates and Tunisia have started bilateral trade talks on trade currently worth about $350 million. The commencement of talks on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was announced by the trade ministers of both countries during a virtual meeting for the purpose. The main objectives include reducing tariffs and trade barriers, establishing investment avenues across multiple sectors and improving market access. The rich Gulf state has intensified its investment and economic partnerships in Africa in recent years. The talks between the two member states of the Arab League are said to be based on a win-win principle. 3. Horn of Africa: The presidential convoy of President Hasan Shiekh Mohamud was attacked in Mogadishu on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. The president was unharmed despite an eyewitness account that said at least 3 lives were lost. The president continued his journey to southern Somalia despite the attack. A week ago, a siege on a hotel housing military officers and traditional leaders was ended by Somali forces. The past weeks have seen increased attacks from Al-Shabaab in the country. The African Union has condemned such attacks. 4. West Africa: Mali has followed its counterparts in the confederation of Sahel states in withdrawing from the International Organization of La Francophonie (OIL). Until recently, the country together with other French-speaking countries was a member of states of the France-led group. The relations between the group and junta-led states went cold after coups in these countries starting in 2020. Mali's exit follows a similar announcement by Niger and Burkina Faso. 5. East Africa: A woman caught by Ugandan authorities while trying to smuggle heroin into the country faces 50 years in jail. The incident that happened in 2023 has gone through the Ugandan legal system. The 55-year-old woman was sentenced to 50 years in prison or in lieu pay a fine of 50 million Ugandan shillings (about 13,500 USD). The heroine epidemic continues to be a major security challenge to East Africa. Currently, Kenya and Tanzania are adopting measures to curb the challenge along entry points on the Indian Ocean coast. Even though Uganda is a landlocked country, it is significantly affected by it. #security #stability #risk #africa unival group GmbH

After Qatar's crucial intervention in the Congo crisis, what next? 1. Last Sunday, I received a call from Doha. An Aljazeera journalist requested an interview scheduled for the next Monday. 2. She was interested in my analysis of the influx of Congolese refugees in Burundi and the larger Burundian interest in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 3. Also, the president of Angola, in anticipation of talks on Tuesday, had urged a ceasefire between the DRC and AFC/M23 fighters. This was also of interest to the journalist. 4. By Monday, the ceasefire suggestion was not heeded and Rwanda announced severance of ties with Belgium. It had accused the European country of holding on to colonial manipulation. At the time of the interview, the M23 had dispatched its delegation to Angola for the talks. I shared my opinion about the talks ( which I have shared here). 5. And so, what? 6. By the evening of Monday, it was clear that the talks scheduled for Tuesday had collapsed before they could commence. The rebels withdrew. They blamed their actions on sanctions by the European Union against Rwandan and rebel officials. The situation looked bleak. 7. The announcement that the Emir of Qatar has succeeded in bringing Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame of the DRC and Rwanda face to face in Doha and reaching a ceasefire agreement is for a last-minute intervention for a situation that had become dangerously unpredicted. 8. While Qatar is not absent in Sub-Saharan Africa, it has not been a major player as it has been in the Middle East and maybe North Africa. 9. What next? 10. Firstly, an agreement to a ceasefire is not the same as its implementation. That is, the phenomenal “Doha Agreement” will need a lot of effort on the ground to make it work at the implementation stage. 11. One of the major difficulties is the fact that even though the M23 is by far the most formidable force in the current rebellion, many other groups are semi-autonomous. 12. Also, while having similar aims and objectives, there exist some differences. Some have different agendas after this campaign and others have more radical approaches and different "scores to settle". 13. Even within the M23, there is some internal rivalry and records of commanders who have objected to directives from Rwanda in the past. It is for this reason that President Kagame recently stated that there are some things beyond his control. 14. Way forward? 15. The DRC and Rwanda need to keep talking and invest some time in confidence-building if a real ceasefire will be achieved on the ground. 16. In the current state of affairs of global politics, Africa needs more partners that will support peace and stability. Qatar's gesture should not be taken for granted. #security #peace #drc #rwanda #qatar DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd unival group GmbH

Today's surprise. They have actually agreed to a ceasefire. More analysis on this coming shortly. #security #peace #stability #Africa DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd unival group GmbH

The Africa Situation 1. Central Africa: The Presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda have met in Doha and agreed to a ceasefire in Eastern DRC. This comes as a surprise after rebels pulled out of talks scheduled for Tuesday. The agreement was brokered by the Emir of the Gulf state. Rwanda has come under sanctions for its suspected role in Eastern DRC. The last round of sanctions by the European Union prompted the withdrawal of rebels from the Angola talks. 2. West Africa: Niger has withdrawn from the League of French-speaking countries also known as the International Organization of La Francophonie (OIF, acronym in French). The landlocked West African country announced on Monday. The relations between the junta-led government and the OIF have deteriorated since it removed a democratically elected president from office. The country is currently in a confederation with neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali and has left the regional bloc ECOWAS. Nigeria declared a state of emergency in an important oil-producing state to curb the vandalism of oil pipelines on Tuesday. The president made the declaration which effectively suspended the state governor and the legislative body. The federal government is treating the matter as a major national security issue and will therefore manage the security of the state from the federal capital, Abuja. While the state has faced the challenge for a long time, the current action signals a major escalation of the situation. 3. North Africa: On Tuesday, Libya deported over 150 Nigerian women and children who have been irregular migrants in the country. This was part of an UN-backed "voluntary return" program for irregular migrants. Thousands of sub-Saharan Africans migrate to northern African countries to embark on a perilous journey to reach Europe via the Mediterranean Sea. Libya has been a top destination for migrants moving away from poverty and sometimes, conflicts in their countries of origin. Libyan authorities are cooperating with international partners, including the United Nations to address the situation that has been compounded by damning reports of human traffickers taking advantage of migrants. #security #stability #risk #africa unival group GmbH

The Africa Situation 1. Central Africa: M23 rebels have pulled out of talks in Angola due to the imposition of sanctions by the European Union against senior members of the group and some Rwandan officials on Monday. This was less than 24 hours before the commencement of talks in the Angolan capital. Rwanda had earlier severed diplomatic ties with Belgium accusing the European country of undermining it. In the past weeks, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom have suspended aid to the landlocked country which borders the Democratic Republic of Congo to the central east. 2. Horn of Africa: Sudanese officials have discovered and retrieved at least 11 bodies including that of children and women at the bottom of a well in Khartoum. The site was found after government forces dislodged a para-military group from the area in the capital. The government has accused the Rapid Support Forces of the heinous act. Already, the conflict has led to more than 20,000 deaths and displaced over 14 million people. In recent weeks, the SAF has made significant on the ground and taken control of much of the capital. 3. North Africa: Coastguards in Tunisia have rescued over six hundred migrants in the Mediterranean Sea and retrieved the bodies of 18 others. Despite steps to stem the flow of migrants to the region and the concomitant exploitation, it continues to see thousands making the perilous attempt to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. 4. Southern Africa: Microsoft has pledged close to $300 million in investment in its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in South Africa. The investment will be in three years starting in 2025. Among the goals of the tech giant is to bring down the cost of access to such infrastructure for start-ups in the largest economy in Southern Africa. #security #stability #risk #africa unival group GmbH