Goldman Sachs and Sequoia Capital are skeptical that AI can generate enough value to warrant the $100's of billions being invested in the space. Both penned recent posts that suggest the economics don't make sense, but I think they're missing the bigger picture: AI is a Pascalian wager for megacap tech companies. If a megacap tech company bowed out of the AI race and AI ended up being as profound as bulls expect, that megacap tech company would be in Pascalian hell. Its competitors would eat up the biggest opportunity since the Internet. That company may even lose status as a megacap tech company. If a megacap bowed out of AI and was right, best case it saves $200b vs a $2t+ market cap. Who cares. Investors will have short memories for megacaps that invest heavily in AI even if AI never pans out (see META/metaverse). Investors will have short memories for those that disbelieve AI and end up being right. Pat on the back, now what can you do for me next. Investors will have painfully long memories for those who miss it. The rational strategy for all megacaps is to keeping investing aggressively into AI, and that's what I believe they'll do.
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Deepwater Asset Management invests in innovative growth companies in public and private markets. The firm manages our clients’ assets within a long-only growth fund, a public-private hybrid fund, a series of venture funds, a frontier tech index, and separately managed accounts. Views/opinions are not investment advice. Social Media Disclosures: https://deepwatermgmt.com/research-disclaimer/
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Do you think we're already in an AI bubble?
The market thinks we’re already in an AI bubble ... and we’re going higher. That’s the consensus from a 1,300 person survey I ran this week where 46% of respondents said we’re already in an AI bubble and will go higher. For what it’s worth, I agree with the 34% who think we’re not in a bubble yet, but we’ll get one. At first, the overwhelming expectation that we're in a bubble already made me wonder if it's possible to get a true bubble when everyone expects it. As I think more about it, the inverse idea is even more powerful: You can't get a bubble unless everyone expects it. Bubbles are driven by psychology, not secrecy. Optimism and fomo are contagious, not subtle. The AI bubble will stare us right in the face as it's happening, if it’s not already here. More on The Deload: https://lnkd.in/etfzDFPy
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We’re giving AI to 75% of our customers at no extra charge. You read that right. Why? For many forward thinking companies and their employees, remote work has been a life changer. Companies can hire the best talent, regardless of the state where they live. Employees can spend more time with their families instead of commuting. But as a result, the founders, HR leaders, and accounting professionals at these companies are faced with a no-win choice: ?? hours spent deciphering confusing state compliance requirements, or ?? or thousands of dollars in fines.? _ When we introduced AI as part of our most expensive plan, we immediately saw how much stress it removed. However, that impact was limited to only a small fraction of our customers. It bothered us. So today, we’re adding AbstractOps AI Compliance Copilot to our most popular plan (Starter)... ** at no additional cost.** We’re able to do so without raising costs, because we operate incredibly lean, passing savings on to our customers. These customers, in turn, have graciously told their friends, and we’re so incredibly grateful. Head to the comments for my full thoughts on why we made this decision, and to help us spread the word.
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Want an Apple Watch for your brain? Neurable is launching it this Spring. The MW75 Neuro headphones will track brain activity to optimize performance and focus just as the Apple Watch tracks our physical fitness. Founder/CEO Dr. Ramses Alcaide joined me on the latest The Deload podcast to talk about the new product as well as how Neurable's non-invasive BCI approach can compete with invasive BCI's like Neuralink and even how Neurable can make digital assistants like Siri smarter. Listen on The Deload. https://lnkd.in/eCC4stiU
An Apple Watch for Your Brain
thedeload.com
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Congrats to Dr. Ramses Alcaide and the Neurable team on a huge with for Neurable AI! More exciting things coming to shape the interface layer of the future soon.
?? Exciting News from XTech, $2M! ?? ?? ?? Thrilled to announce that Neurable has emerged as a proud winner of the prestigious XTech Prime award, beating out hundreds of top-tier deep tech companies! ?? This remarkable achievement comes with a whopping $2 million dedicated to advancing and commercializing our groundbreaking Neurable AI technology into the DOD. Our journey to this moment has been nothing short of extraordinary, and we're honored to be at the forefront of innovation in the deep tech space. This recognition is a testament to the dedication and brilliance of the entire Neurable team, who have tirelessly worked for a decade to bring Neurable AI to the forefront of technological advancement. To make a technology that works seamlessly with high performance. This marks a historic milestone as the largest and first Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) commercialization at scale, opening up new frontiers in the intersection of technology. I want to extend my heartfelt gratitude to every member of the Neurable team for their unwavering commitment, passion, and hard work. This achievement wouldn't have been possible without each of you, and it signifies the beginning of an exciting new chapter for Neurable and the future of deep tech. Here's to a decade of perseverance, innovation, and collaboration, and to the thrilling journey ahead as we continue to push the boundaries of what's possible in the world of Neurable AI. The craziest part is this is just the beginning! ???? #XTechPrime #Innovation #Neurable #DeepTech #BCI #DOD #TeamWorkMakesTheDreamWork
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If we get AGI by 2025 per Jack Kendall at Rain AI, it's not superintelligence that follows. It's infinite intelligence. The ability to spin up millions, even billions of instances of university level digital intelligences is like a real life infinite monkey theorem. Except the monkeys are smart machines. Put a billion intelligent machines on a hard unsolved problems and you're bound to find some solutions, even if by accident. Solved is solved. Infinite intelligence seems more likely than superintelligence in any estimable time frame, and it will certainly take a lot of compute. Makes sense why AMD raised its estimate of the AI acceleration market from $150 billion in 2027 to $400. They see the same AGI to infinite intelligence opportunity.
Will we get artificial general intelligence by 2025? Jack Kendall thinks so. Jack is co-founder and CTO at Rain AI, a Deepwater Asset Management portfolio company building artificial brains. Words are important in defining AGI. Words are always important. Jack defines AGI as: ? 1. A single network architecture that can in principle learn any combination of data modalities - e.g. speech, vision, language. We have this now. ? 2. The ability to use prior experience to learn new things rapidly. That’s casual understanding. We have this now. ? 3. The ability to reason about things and perform tasks it hasn’t seen before. That’s symbolic reasoning. That's the big thing coming in AI in 2024. Hear more about why we're about to get AGI, what that means, and how Rain will contribute to solving the AI hardware bottleneck on my latest The Deload podcast. https://lnkd.in/ecKjDZJR
AGI by 2025
thedeload.com
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If you want to know where the AI world is going, and why we might get AGI sooner than many think, listen to Doug Clinton's interview with Rain AI's Jack Kendall.
Will we get artificial general intelligence by 2025? Jack Kendall thinks so. Jack is co-founder and CTO at Rain AI, a Deepwater Asset Management portfolio company building artificial brains. Words are important in defining AGI. Words are always important. Jack defines AGI as: ? 1. A single network architecture that can in principle learn any combination of data modalities - e.g. speech, vision, language. We have this now. ? 2. The ability to use prior experience to learn new things rapidly. That’s casual understanding. We have this now. ? 3. The ability to reason about things and perform tasks it hasn’t seen before. That’s symbolic reasoning. That's the big thing coming in AI in 2024. Hear more about why we're about to get AGI, what that means, and how Rain will contribute to solving the AI hardware bottleneck on my latest The Deload podcast. https://lnkd.in/ecKjDZJR
AGI by 2025
thedeload.com