CSIS Southeast Asia Program

?? #LATESTonSEA Alert ?? The #ASEANSummit, hosted by #Laos, continues with #Myanmar's conflict front and center. Despite sending a senior official for the first time in 3 years, talks struggle as ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus remains unimplemented. Read the blog here: https://cs.is/482U8xC ? On October 9, the Kachin Independence Army and allied forces captured Pinlebu in Sagaing after seven weeks of fighting. In August, the junta lost Lashio, and now armed groups are targeting Central Command in Mandalay, while the Arakan Army advances in Rakhine. ? Dr. Zaw Myint Maung’s death in junta custody on October 7 has intensified global attention on the junta's escalating human rights abuses. ?? As its influence fades and military losses mount, the junta is conducting a census this month, purportedly to prepare voter lists for a 2025 election aimed at restoring democratic rule. ?? Myanmar’s neighbors are preparing for contingencies, with China brokering ceasefires and India, for the first time, recognizing resistance groups by inviting them to a seminar on constitutionalism and federalism on September 24.

President Biden skipping the #ASEANSummit again? Some might call it a lack of commitment, but the reality is, no U.S. president can attend every ASEAN or East Asia Summit. Sending the VP or top officials should be the new norm, as space and time are real constraints. Read Gregory Poling's latest commentary here: https://cs.is/4eC3iDM ?? The uncomfortable truth is that no U.S. president, regardless of commitment, will attend every U.S.-ASEAN or East Asia Summit during their time in office. ? Sometimes the realities of space and time come into play. Washington is farther from Southeast Asia than any of ASEAN’s other major dialogue partners. ?? ASEAN is still a vital grouping for regional economic integration and diplomatic discussion (albeit not solutions), but it is hard to argue that it should take priority over APEC or the Quad when it comes to the president’s schedule. ?? The reality is that over the last decade, the greatest value of attending the ASEAN Summit for the United States and most other dialogue partners has been the ability to hold sideline meetings in bilateral or minilateral formats.

Part of a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department entitled "The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election", Gregory Poling's commentary outlines out why the #Philippines matters for the next U.S. administration. Read here: https://cs.is/4eiZK9o ? The best way for the next administration to reassure allies and partners while deterring Beijing will be to continue the generational modernization of the U.S.-Philippines alliance underway since 2021. To that end, the new administration in its first 100 days should focus on the following: ? ?? Conclude a general security of military information agreement if it remains unfinished in January 2025. ? ?? Pledge to seek congressional funding for Philippine military modernization under the recently concluded Security Sector Assistance Roadmap at or near the $500 million level of foreign military financing provided in fiscal year 2024. ? ?? Seek a trilateral national security advisers meeting or a trilateral cabinet-level meeting with Japan and the Philippines—as occurred for the first time in 2024—to advance coordination on joint training, military capacity building, and economic support, including through the Luzon Economic Corridor.

??? Tune in with Gregory Poling and Elina Noor to break down #Thailand's political shifts with insights from Pongkwan "PK" Sawasdipakdi. Japhet Quitzon and Lauren Mai will also cover the latest from Alice Guo’s shocking arrest in #Indonesia to sinkholes in #Malaysia: https://cs.is/3MUGtyL ?? Former Bamban mayor Alice Guo, who had been on the run for nearly two months over alleged links to Chinese criminal syndicates, was arrested in Indonesia on September 3 and is expected to be extradited to the Philippines for questioning. ?? Pope Francis embarks on a 12-day journey across Southeast Asia, visiting Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor Leste, and Singapore, with a central message of climate action, interfaith dialogue, and support for vulnerable communities. ?? Recent flooding in Southeast Asia has devastated regions in Indonesia and Thailand, killing dozens and displacing thousands, with heavy rains predicted to worsen, posing significant challenges for local governments and recovery efforts. ?? Tragedy struck Kuala Lumpur as an 8-meter sinkhole swallowed a tourist, followed by a second sinkhole nearby days later, raising public safety concerns while authorities conduct integrity audits and continue search efforts.

The U.S. must rethink its engagement strategy with Laos as great power competition intensifies in Southeast Asia. In this?#NewPerspectives?written by former Research Intern Amelie Ortiz De Leon, a nuanced approach is key to fostering stronger ties. Read more here: https://cs.is/3zpY92e ?? Beyond broad strategies, U.S. engagement should focus on people-to-people ties, revolving around war reconciliation efforts, support to civil society, and law enforcement. ?? Given Laos’s concerns with transnational crime and human trafficking, the United States should strengthen law enforcement cooperation efforts. ?? Washington should endeavor to pursue engagements with Laos in a comprehensive manner, engaging in capacity building efforts that extend beyond the prism of geopolitical competition.

The United States has a unique opportunity to shape Myanmar's future through soft power. In her blog post, former Research Intern Pannei Thwel proposes that by supporting tech, education, and youth of Myanmar, the United States can strengthen ties and promote democracy. #NewsPerspectives: Read more here: https://cs.is/4e9uslg ? ?? The United States should not be discouraged by Myanmar’s unhealthy political climate. In a world of growing online communications, scaling up virtual exchange programs would be beneficial. ? ???? By continuing to engage with Myanmar’s youth, Washington will help shape Myanmar’s future policymakers, who are ready to fuel democracy when the time is right. ? ? Since Myanmar’s transition to democracy, most citizens have experienced the benefits of increased freedom and economic opportunities and are determined not to give up easily. The United States should not be doubtful of the resolve of Myanmar’s people.

??NEW SOUTHEAST ASIA RADIO ALERT?? Gregory Poling unpacks Sec. Austin and Sec. Blinken’s recent trips throughout East & Southeast Asia with Christopher Johnstone and Andreyka Natalegawa while Japhet Quitzon and Lauren Mai cover the latest: from the Marcos-Duterte family feud to a series of corruption cases around the region: https://cs.is/3WZhy1G ???The Marcos-Duterte Family Feud: For the past few months, attacks have been waged back and forth between the two political families, suggesting some major shakeups in the Philippines’ political landscape ahead of the 2025 midterm elections. ?????China’s visits to Myanmar & Thailand: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar and Thailand from August 14 to 17 to encourage peace and stability in Myanmar as clashes between junta officials and rebels have rapidly escalated. ?????Human Trafficking in the Golden Triangle: Scam centers and human trafficking are on the rise in the Golden Triangle region, which cuts between Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar’s borders. ???Vietnam’s Corruption Case: 32 clean energy projects in Vietnam are under investigation as the country’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign continues. ????Indonesia’s Corruption Case: Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesian minister for economic affairs and chairman of Golkar, one of the country’s biggest political parties, resigned on August 11, speculated to be linked to the country’s palm oil graft case in 2021 and 2022. ???Singapore’s Corruption Case: Two former bankers respectively from Citibank and Julius Baer Group were charged with assisting a group of foreign nationals in a money laundering scheme.

???? In 2023, President Joe Biden and the late Communist Party of Vietnam general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Lauren Mai, Japhet Quitzon, and Gregory Poling unpack the future of U.S.-Vietnam relations in their latest white paper:?https://cs.is/3SX6QaR????? ?? With important anniversaries of both the end of the Vietnam War and diplomatic normalization quickly approaching, the United States and Vietnam will only work to continue the momentum in their growing relationship. ??No matter what changes at the political level in Washington and Hanoi, the two states will continue to share similar views of regional security and anxieties about China. ???Vietnam’s growing role in the regional economy of the Indo-Pacific?makes?it a vital partner for the United States. ?? The U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership should include redoubling efforts to address historical legacies, deepen linkages between Vietnam and the Vietnamese diaspora, and expand educational exchanges.?

?? #LATESTonSEA ALERT ?? A series of rulings from Thailand’s Constitutional Court have shaken up the country’s politics. Japhet Quitzon and Gregory Poling break down the implications of these changes: https://cs.is/4dpfLKu ???The court on August 7?ordered the dissolution?of the opposition Move Forward Party, which holds the most seats in the parliament, declaring the party’s campaign proposal to amend Thailand’s strict lèse majesté laws unconstitutional. ???The remaining 143 Move Forward parliamentarians were allowed to keep their seats and two days later?launched?the new People’s Party. ???Barely a week later, on August 15, the court ousted Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from power, finding him guilty of a gross ethics violation for?appointing?lawyer and convicted felon Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister in violation of the constitution. ????The Thai establishment’s repeated attempts to quell opposition through legal warfare will likely backfire.

???Amid a complex security landscape, power dynamics in SEA remain fluid. In a new report, Gregory Poling and Andreyka Natalegawa compare U.S. and Chinese soft power influence in Southeast Asia. Read the full report here: https://cs.is/46NIq9r ?????Under the Biden administration, the United States has eagerly sought to bolster its partnerships and alliances in Southeast Asia. Thus far, Washington’s efforts have been met positively, with opinion polling suggesting that the United States retains more soft power and popularity than China across most of the region. ???But that advantage may be shrinking. China remains a key partner for Southeast Asia and has sought to supplement its growing economic and political clout with educational, professional, and cultural exchanges, alongside other levers of soft power. ????This analysis builds on a previous CSIS Southeast Asia Program white paper on U.S. and Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, which collated and weighted available country-level polling data alongside economic indicators.