CSIS Defense and Security Department

What is in the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine? How quickly will aid reach the front lines? What effect will this have on the war? #Ukraine would have lost the war without U.S. military aid. The $61 billion aid package for Ukraine will produce an immediate surge in deliveries of military equipment after they dramatically tapered off last fall. The resumption of U.S. military aid means that Ukrainian resistance will stiffen. It will be able to slow or stop Russian attacks and even launch its own limited local counterattacks. What happens after that is a crucial question for the Ukrainians. Learn more from Mark Cancian and Chris H. Park here: https://lnkd.in/eTVKzSh3 #Defense #Ukraine #Russia #NationalSecurity #InternationalSecurity #Congress #Pentagon #Military #MilitaryAid

The Pacific is where China is testing the edges of U.S. resistance by refining its ability to exploit gaps in governance, security, and perception management. The Trump administration has an opportunity to integrate a sustained, proactive approach to deny China the ability to shape the competitive space unchallenged. Learn more from Benjamin Jensen, Kathleen J. McInnis, Ph.D., and Audrey Aldisert here: https://lnkd.in/ebEkSPqe #China #Pacific #Oceania #IndoPacific

The United States has a major vulnerability it needs to address: China is exploiting an immigration loophole in the U.S. territory of Saipan, posing a security and counterintelligence threat to U.S. bases and installations in the region. Read more from Kathleen J. McInnis, Ph.D. and Benjamin Jensen here: https://lnkd.in/eCUMp-hk #China #Saipan #Oceania #IndoPacific #Pacific

Lasting peace in Ukraine will require a demilitarized zone backed by an international military force. Based on analyzing past military missions, CSIS Futures Lab estimates that the number of foreign troops required to support Ukrainian sovereignty, and security could range from a?tripwire?force of a battalion to a more doctrinal-sized force of over 100,000 soldiers. In other words, peacekeeping in Ukraine has the potential to eclipse previous NATO missions in the?Balkans?in both its size and complexity. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eSfKAzQ4 #Ukraine #Geopolitics #NATO #Security #Peacekeeping

CSIS Defense and Security Department president, Dr. Seth G. Jones, joined The Truth of the Matter podcast to discuss the impact of stopping U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, whether European countries can fill the gap, and how this could affect peace negotiations. Dr. Jones also explained how a U.S.-Russia relationship could shift the global order and previews a new Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report on malicious activities from Russian military intelligence in Europe and how they have affected the war. Listen to the conversation here: https://lnkd.in/eY58qc4x #RussiaUkraine #MilitaryIntelligence #PeaceNegotiations

Peace talks don’t mean de-escalation—history shows they often trigger intensified military operations. As negotiations loom, Russia is likely to exploit the pause in U.S. assistance by escalating its ground and missile campaigns, shaping the battlefield in its favor. As part of CSIS Futures Lab's "Russian Firepower Strike Tracker: Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine" series, recent analysis by Yasir Atalan and Dr. Benjamin Jensen outlines how mixed missile salvos—ballistic, cruise, and drones—could pressure Ukraine’s air defenses. Explore the tracker here: https://lnkd.in/errimvtY Read the latest commentary here: https://lnkd.in/e3tg6u5V #MilitaryStrategy #AirDefense #RussiaUkraine

We had a fantastic turnout for the launch of our new book, Critical Minerals and the Future of the US Economy, last week. Senators Hickenlooper and Young provided brilliant insights alongside lively panel discussions. In addition to private sector participation, we had strong attendance from the U.S. government, with participation from the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, Commerce, Interior, and Homeland Security, as well as the EXIM Bank, OMB, MCC, DFC, USTDA, and NIST. We also had representatives from Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, Japan, Peru, the UK, and more in attendance, underscoring the event's global reach. You can watch the launch here: https://lnkd.in/eJGnJ532 Some highlights: 1. I LOVED the fireside with Senator John Hickenlooper. He's insightful, funny and thoughtful. A geologist by training, he has provided incredible US leadership on minerals security. 2. Senator Todd Young delivered a powerful keynote. He noted advancing minerals security is vital for "Reinforcing confidence in our democracy, strengthening our economic security, and advancing our national security. That my friends, is the furtherance of a government of common sense." 3. A terrific panel moderated by Eric Palomaa with Frank Fannon, Rohitesh Dhawan, Joseph Majkut, and myself. Drawing on his experience as Assistant Secretary of State for Energy and Natural Resources, Frank kicked off the panel discussing the need for strengthening US Government mission clarity and execution for minerals security. Ro talked about the industry-led effort to do this responsibly to ensure project durability. I discussed the need to embed minerals into our foreign policy and line it up with our domestic industrial strategy to establish US global leadership. Joseph explored the mineral-intensive reality of meeting growing future energy demand. And Adam assessed how we to get moving on addressing our midstream bottleneck. 4. A closing panel with Emily Olson & Jasper Jung on how public-private partnership can work to build US minerals security. Emily discussed the importance of public support to mining projects, given the difficulty of operating mines in some places. Jasper addressed the importance of supporting industries that will sustain high minerals demand and incentivize investments in mining and processing. A huge thank you to our authors. You can read it here: https://lnkd.in/e8diDJEK

"If America is to be a global leader in the minerals it needs for national, economic and energy security, it will have to go beyond signing agreements," writes CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program expert Gracelin Baskaran, PhD. Read the full analysis in The New York Times: https://lnkd.in/d3By8bHm

Strengthening U.S.-Australia defense industrial cooperation is key to boosting both nations’ defense capabilities, reducing hurdles to collaboration, and deterring conflict in the Indo-Pacific. A strong industrial base depends on working with allies, but turning ideas into action requires facilitating technology transfers, sharing sensitive information, and opening markets to defense firms on both sides. Barriers to cooperation may seem like isolated challenges, but they are often interconnected—addressing them requires a systemic approach to policy and industry collaboration. Read the joint report from the CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and the CSIS Australia Chair here: https://lnkd.in/eBN6FS9Z #USAustraliaAlliance #DefenseIndustry #IndoPacific #SecurityCooperation #DefenseInnovation

As policymakers navigate the complexities of war termination, research on peace negotiations offers a clear takeaway: lasting peace takes time, compromise, and structured diplomacy. The latest report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)'s Futures Lab found that 60% of all wars conclude through some form of compromise. While wars can end in various ways, a negotiated settlement remains a distinct option for #Ukraine. Therefore, identifying the factors that influence the complex process of war termination is essential for understanding how negotiations between the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, other key states in Europe, and the broader international community may unfold. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eJQxkyS6 #AIForeignPolicy #PeaceNegotiations #Geopolitics #CSIS #AIandDiplomacy