CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program

Canada is the largest mineral supplier to the United States, and tariffs could hinder efforts to reduce reliance on China. The United States depends on Canada for uranium, nickel, and aluminum—key to defense, nuclear energy, and manufacturing—making tariffs a costly risk. Read more from the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program: https://lnkd.in/dAHyaWNq

"Any tariffs with Canada on minerals would have heavy consequences on defense, nuclear energy, and heavy manufacturing. Canada is a critical ally in the United States’ efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals—both for feedstock and midstream processing," argues the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program. Dig into the impacts of Canadian tariffs on U.S. minerals security: https://lnkd.in/dAHyaWNq

"As the United States races to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic, and energy security, tariffs with Canada may drastically undermine these efforts," writes CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program expert Gracelin Baskaran. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dAHyaWNq

New analysis out today on the impact of Canadian tariffs on US minerals security. Canada is the biggest source of the United States mineral imports. To put it into perspective, in 2023, Canada accounted for $47 billion of United States mineral imports. China followed with $28.3 billion. At a time when the US is racing to reduce reliance on China, tariffs with Canada could have the opposite effect. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the defense industry, nuclear energy, and heavy manufacturing. A 25 percent tariff on Canadian mineral imports could cost U.S. off-takers an additional $11.75 billion—a figure that would increase as base metal and uranium prices recover Read here: https://lnkd.in/dQMNuxPr Some key points- Uranium: Tariffs would threaten uranium supply at a time when the United States is seeking to expand its nuclear dominance. Canada is the world’s second-largest producer and exporter of uranium, trailing only Kazakhstan. It stands as the biggest supplier of uranium to the United States, meeting approximately 25 percent of U.S. domestic demand. Canada’s uranium reserves are 10x larger than the U.S. Nickel: Canada is the biggest supplier of nickel alloys essential to defense, supplying roughly half of the United States’ total nickel needs. Nickel alloys are a critical input for the defense and automotive industries. There is no adequate alternative supply of nickel produced outside of China or by non-Chinese companies. Significant alternative sources have ceased operations due to their inability to compete with Chinese firms. Aluminum: A report from the Congressional Research Service notes that “The U.S. and Canadian aluminum industries are highly integrated, as each market is a major trading partner of the other across the aluminum value chain. In 2021, more than 75 [percent] of Canadian production went to the United States, while roughly half of U.S. downstream products were exported to Canada.” Export tariffs would disrupt the deeply integrated market—a tariff rate of 25 percent would cost the U.S. aluminum industry approximately $2.2 billion.

On Wednesday at 9:30 a.m., the?CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program?welcomes Miriam D'Onofrio for a fireside conversation on the future of uranium to jumpstart nuclear power in the 21st century. Register now: https://lnkd.in/eu4_mrM3

Really pleased to welcome Dr. James (Jim) Cust as the newest senior associate for the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program. He has a doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford and teaches on mining, oil and gas at Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government. He was formerly senior economist at the World Bank Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region (where we had the chance to co-author a book!) and director of research at the Natural Resource Governance Institute. Jim's work has been published widely in academic journals such as the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Energy Economics, and Climate Policy, among others. His work has been covered in the press including The Economist, Nature, Reuters and the IMF’s Finance and Development. Excited to have him on board! Read more about Jim here: https://lnkd.in/euSvG_VW

Delighted to share our most watched fireside this year, with over 9,100 views in less than 5 days. His Excellency Ambassador Chibamba Kanyama and Jito Kayumba, Special Advisor to the President of Zambia, discussed existing US-Zambia engagements, unpacked potential mining policy changes that may impact investment, the Lobito Corridor, and the country's interest in continuing to attract Western Investment You can watch here: https://lnkd.in/eXYsxWdv

Don't miss our fireside conversation this morning with Zambian Ambassador Chibamba Kanyama, Jito Kayumba, and Gracelin Baskaran - live in 2 hours. Watch & submit live questions for the speakers here: https://lnkd.in/g4Q-qRjv

On December 3, China announced its most stringent set of export controls yet on critical minerals in response to an escalating tech trade war with the United States. The economic and national security implications are significant given the importance of these minerals to semiconductors and defense technologies. ? The new minerals export restrictions were announced?on the heels of the Biden administration's latest crackdown on China's semiconductor industry.?It marked several firsts in the U.S.-China conflict—the first time Chinese critical minerals export controls were targeted exclusively at the United States and the first time restrictions on critical minerals came in direct response to restrictions on advanced technologies. Beijing's rapid retaliation suggests that critical mineral supply chains will be a?central battleground?in?the accelerating tech trade war, which?may escalate further under a more hawkish incoming U.S. administration. Read here: https://lnkd.in/gqgRj2CE

Meredith and I published a new analysis breaking down this week's Chinese export controls on critical minerals for military and civilian uses amidst the growing trade war with the US. The new export restrictions marked several firsts in the tech war between the U.S. and China—the first time Chinese critical minerals export restrictions were targeted at the United States rather than all countries and the first time restrictions on critical minerals were a direct response to restrictions on advanced technologies. Critical mineral security is now intrinsically linked to the escalating tech trade war. Read here: https://lnkd.in/eJu8NyE4