CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is at a crossroads—deep value levels or the start of a bear market? Valuation metrics are flashing bearish signals. The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator is at its lowest point this cycle, and the MVRV Ratio Z-score has dipped below its 365-day moving average. Historically, this signals either a sharp correction or a prolonged downturn. Demand is also in decline. Whales are slowing accumulation, Bitcoin ETFs in the US have turned net sellers, and apparent demand growth saw its sharpest contraction since July 2024. A 22% drawdown isn’t unusual in a bull market, but valuation metrics suggest this correction runs deeper than before. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $75K–$78K range, the next key level is $63K—its last line of on-chain support. Where does Bitcoin go from here? Get the full breakdown in our latest research report ?? https://lnkd.in/dhkZs6Kd #btc #bitcoin #cryptoquant

Since Trump's Strategic Crypto Reserve message, traders: 1. Had to cover their short positions. 2. Are now opening new long positions, ahead of tomorrow's White House Crypto Summit. This is a cool and easy way to analyze trader's behavior using open interest data and price changes. Live chart: https://t.co/eJ0Miue2H7

Trump-n-Dump: Traders Sell the Rally After Trump’s Crypto Reserve Announcement President Trump announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve, sending Bitcoin up 10%, ETH 13%, and XRP 34%. The reserve would include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. The rally was short-lived as traders rushed to sell. Bitcoin inflows into exchanges surged from 500–1,000 to 6,739 BTC. Ethereum inflows spiked to 300,000 in an hour. XRP whale transactions pushed 2 billion XRP into exchanges. Spot demand remains in contraction territory, making sustained rallies difficult. Get the full breakdown in our weekly report ?? https://lnkd.in/dPFX5tzc #btc #bitcoin #eth #ada #sol #xrp

28% Underwater: Will Bitcoin’s Comeback Turn Pain into Profit? Since Bitcoin broke below the 91K level, Short-Term Holders (STHs) have been sitting on unrealized losses. When the price dipped to 78K yesterday, STHs were collectively facing an average loss of -15%. Notably, STHs currently hold 28% of the total Bitcoin supply, meaning that 28% of the circulating supply has been underwater since Bitcoin fell below their realized price. This development is significant for market dynamics, as it highlights considerable unrealized losses within a substantial segment of the market. However, Bitcoin’s bounce back to the 84-85K range today has alleviated some of this pressure, reducing STHs’ average unrealized losses to -8%. If Bitcoin continues its upward momentum and reclaims the STHs’ realized price level, it could potentially ease further selling pressure. This scenario seems plausible, given that STHs have recently shown a decline in aggressive selling behavior. Data: CryptoQuant

Bybit is bouncing back after one of the largest crypto heists in history. Following the theft of 401K ETH ($1.4B) in last week’s hack, the exchange swiftly replenished its ETH reserves to 372K, securing liquidity from brokers, Binance, and Bitget. Despite this recovery, Bitcoin and USDT reserves have dropped significantly, with BTC holdings down 32% and USDT reserves cut nearly in half. Meanwhile, ETH inflows spiked as large entities moved funds into Bybit post-hack. What does this mean for Bybit’s future stability? Dive into our full research report for deeper insights. https://lnkd.in/dVRKhTWg

According to data from CryptoQuant, #Bitcoin’s realized price reached an all-time high of $43,321 on Feb 16 — an increment of 86% in the past year. For those wondering what realized price is, it’s the average acquisition price of a token weighted by its supply, which some investors interpret as a support price or its fair value in the long term. ?? Read more on: https://lnkd.in/gh9dFzi2

The Pro-Cyclical MSTR (via CryptoQuant) [MSTR adds 20,356 bitcoins to its Balance Sheet] Profiled as the de facto leading Bitcoin institution, Strategy (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) employs a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) method in its purchases, but has a tendency to cyclically weight its purchase program. The company's balance sheet has now reached 499,096 bitcoins. Aggregated with broader institutional demand, one could argue that bitcoin, at its current spot level, is undervalued. In the current market environment, MSTR's purchase program can be seen as a leading indicator to the underlying asset. [Pro-Cyclicality] MSTR’s bitcoin strategy consists of aggressive acquisitions, often funded through equity sales and debt offerings, especially during periods of heightened market enthusiasm. For instance, in late 2024 and early 2025, the company ramped up purchases as the spot price surged past $100,000, coinciding with a post-election rally and a crypto-friendly political climate in the U.S. This pattern indicates a tendency to buy heavily when bitcoin’s price and market sentiment are strong, which aligns with pro-cyclical behavior. Summary: As long as MSTR's pro-cyclical purchases continue, bitcoin's outlook remains positive. [Institutional Bitcoin] Inspired by MSTR’s success story, other companies are following its modus operandi. The Japanese Metaplanet (3350) began its bitcoin accumulation in April 2024 with an initial purchase worth $6.5 million. By today, the company has grown its balance sheet to 2,100 bitcoin units, worth $198.22 million. Although initially exploring a broader "Web3" or "crypto" pivot, Metaplanet has focused on adopting the full-scale bitcoin standard. This decision was influenced by bitcoin's perceived superiority as a currency and the desire to offer Japanese investors a tax-efficient way to gain bitcoin exposure. Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich has particularly emphasized bitcoin's role as a hedge against yen (JPY) depreciation. https://lnkd.in/dU9m5mWv

Bitcoin Faces Potential Price Correction as Demand and Liquidity Weaken Bitcoin dropped to $93K, with a potential dip to $86K if liquidity conditions don’t improve. Demand continues to decline, falling from 279K in early December to just 70K today, while ETF inflows have turned negative. Spot demand in the US is slowing, with Bitcoin flows from other exchanges to Coinbase dropping below the 90-day moving average, signaling a potential correction. Stablecoin liquidity isn’t recovering fast enough—USDT’s 60-day market cap growth is down 92% since December, limiting new capital inflows. On-chain activity is also fading. Bitcoin network usage has declined 17% since its November 2024 peak, now trending at its lowest levels in over a year. Without a turnaround in liquidity and demand, Bitcoin’s price may struggle to find support. Dive into more data in our latest weekly report ?? https://lnkd.in/dRiRF7n5

The chart below shows the prediction of Bitcoin's price for the upcoming month using on-chain data and deep learning with the Wave Net algorithm. As observed, this prediction indicates a fluctuating pattern for the next month. There is a 50% probability that Bitcoin's price will fluctuate between $93,000 and $110,000 in the coming month. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading onchain data by CryptoQuant

Toncoin (TON) has seen sharp price swings, fluctuating risk metrics, and shifting investor behaviour over the past year. But are we nearing a market bottom? ???? Key indicators like the Sharpe Ratio, Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), and Volatility suggest that selling pressure may be exhausted, paving the way for long-term accumulation. CryptoQuant