International Crisis Group

Ankara and the PKK have a golden opportunity to end their decades-long confrontation. In a historic move on 27 February, Abdullah ?calan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – which has long been designated as a terrorist organisation by Türkiye, the U.S. and the EU – called on the group to disarm and dissolve. Two days later, the PKK leadership headquartered in northern Iraq’s Qandil mountains responded by declaring a unilateral ceasefire in the group’s decades-long struggle with Ankara, which has killed tens of thousands since 1984. These developments, which come subsequent to an initiative launched by the Turkish authorities, have strengthened prospects that one of the world’s longest-running conflicts may be on its way to resolution. In our latest Q&A, our Crisis Group experts explain how the conflict arose and what may lie ahead. https://lnkd.in/eF58j4aJ

After last week’s bloody clashes and shocking atrocities, Syria faces a perilous moment. On 6 March, paramilitaries loyal to the deposed regime staged coordinated attacks on the newly established security forces in parts of the country. Fierce clashes in Latakia, Tartous and Hama provinces left many security personnel dead, along with many members of what appears to be a budding insurgency. While precise numbers cannot yet be verified, reports suggest that hundreds of civilians also perished. It is a dangerous moment as the country struggles to emerge from decades of tyrannical rule by the Assad regime and a devastating civil war. Our latest statement explains why the new interim government will have to act with both prudence and urgency to avoid trapping Syria in a new cycle of repression and violence. https://lnkd.in/eaJ4sSqV

Syria’s new order could be in serious trouble if the interim government does not figure out how to deal better with the gathering insurgency. On 6 March, paramilitaries loyal to the deposed Assad regime staged coordinated attacks on the newly established security forces in Jableh and Baniyas, towns on the Mediterranean coast. The assault prompted a swift, chaotic counteroffensive by the security forces and other armed factions backing the government. While precise numbers cannot yet be verified, reports suggest that hundreds of civilians also perished in shocking atrocities, including summary executions carried out by some of the forces on the government’s side. It is a perilous moment for a country struggling to emerge from decades of tyrannical rule by the Assad regime and a devastating civil war. The rise of possible organised insurgency threatens Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to consolidate power and stabilise Syria so that the war-torn, impoverished country can be rebuilt. Syria’s interim government will have to act with both prudence and urgency. An arbitrary crackdown is liable to boost Assad loyalists’ popular support, prompting them to stage more raids and trapping Syria in a new cycle of repression and violence. ?? Our latest statement on Syria’s dangerous moment.?

After over a year of fieldwork from Mexico to Ecuador, our most recent International Crisis Group report examines how a reconfiguration of the way drug trafficking operates has brought a new wave of violence to LATAM. The shift from monolithic cartels to a tiered series of groups that occupy distinct roles in the commodity chain has made violence the glue of this structure. At a moment when the US is reinforcing the “war on drugs” we describe how ineffective that approach has been in stopping drugs, and suggest ways for the government to mitigate violence. https://lnkd.in/eNTij8f6

More than 50 years into the “war on drugs”, the trade in illicit narcotics is flourishing in Latin America, leaving mayhem in its wake. Smarter policing and enhanced social policy is the best remedy. Latin America is struggling to manage the eruption of violence tied to the narcotics trade. Though drug-related organised crime has brought notorious peaks of violence in the past, never has it spread so wide and rarely has it penetrated so deeply into states and communities. The U.S. is again demanding military-led offensives against criminal groups in the region, yet evidence from past crackdowns suggests that they have served to reconfigure supply routes, spur more complex criminal networks, accelerate efforts to corrupt state officials and generate spikes of violence that harm the most vulnerable. Understanding how Latin America’s fast-shifting, hyperviolent drug trade and crime wave came about is fundamental to arresting it. ?? In our latest report, our Crisis Group analysts look at how the map of the drug trade in Latin America has been transformed over the last half-century and how the region can learn from its past successes and failures to reduce violence.?

??? This Week in Conflict | Ukraine’s Most Plausible Security Guarantee Will Not Come from the U.S. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s disastrous meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, work to repair ties is under way. However, the rancour in the Oval Office on 28 February underlines a crucial lesson for Ukrainian and European negotiators. Our latest statement explains why they need to give up hope that Washington's stance on the war might change. We have also issued a conflict risk alert in South Sudan where tensions are running dangerously high after an opposition-linked militia overran an army base loyal to President Salva Kiir in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state. In other news, we marked International Women’s Day with our president and CEO, Comfort Ero, presenting her top 10 publications on how violence affects women and men differently and the role women play as survivors, fighters or peacemakers in conflicts.

Women’s roles as survivors and?fighters in conflict,?and as peacemakers in resolving it, are crucial but often overlooked. Meanwhile, violence affects women and men in different ways. For International Women’s Day, I’ve selected 10 publications that focus on the interactions between gender and conflict. These publications from Crisis Group and other organisations examine conflicts that deserve attention because of the risks they present for women’s rights. Others shed light on what the changing nature of war - including the role of artificial intelligence - means for people of different genders. Understanding these dimensions of war is essential to keep pushing for a more equal world. #IWD2025 #InternationalWomensDay https://lnkd.in/e8TDSnVY

New update from our global conflict tracker in March.?Our monthly conflict tracker highlights four conflict risks. In the Great Lakes region, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels continued their devastating sweep through eastern DR Congo, seizing another provincial capital and consolidating their control over North and South Kivu provinces. Fighting could spread beyond the Kivus, drawing closer to Burundi, whose troops suffered heavy losses fighting alongside their Congolese counterparts and whose own stability could be at stake amid the risk of direct conflict with Rwanda. However, we have also seen two resolution opportunities after an historic announcement in Türkiye and a pledge by Thailand’s government to decrease military operations in the country’s deep south. Isabelle Arradon unpacks the latest monthly updates from our global conflict tracker. https://lnkd.in/dcj64h3z

Our new interactive map shows how our coverage of gender and conflict dynamics has expanded over the last three decades. As part of our work, we have analysed the many ways in which gender shapes experiences of conflict and peacemaking. These range from the differentiated impacts of conflict on people of different genders to the gendered reasons that people participate in fighting and their roles in conflict resolution. This map shows how Crisis Group’s work has evolved from a 2003 piece on Afghanistan to a global range of publications available today. #InternationalWomensDay #IWD https://lnkd.in/eVY9xwKt

For International Women’s Day, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, shares a list of her top ?? publications on how conflict and gender intersect including the impacts of violence on people of different genders and the roles that women play as survivors, fighters or peacemakers. ??? https://lnkd.in/ewynG5Hu #IWD2025 #InternationalWomensDay