Crisis Consulting International

Kindly let's take a read: "To understand Africa, you could pay attention to ethnicity. 1. When the British Professor of International Relations Barry Buzan was explaining his theory of the "Regional Security Complex" he wrote extensively on Africa. 2. Regardless, with his co-author, he had admitted that less work had been done on sub-state actors like ethnic groups in respect of Africa. Much of the work concentrated on state, regional and some transnational actors. 3. For a continent that has multiple hundreds of ethnicities, this was a significant gap. Nigeria alone has hundreds. Not enough work has linked ethnicity to the political, socio-economic, and religious dynamics of Africa. 4. And so what? 5. Apart from juridical sovereignty, governments, territory and population that are fundamental to statehood, it is very rare to find countries that have reached “nation-state” statuses in Africa. While the “nation-state” remains a complex subject, and is typically difficult to achieve, some multi-ethnic states in the world—due to robust institutionalisation and inclusivity—have blurred national differences within their territories. 6. In Africa, however, ethnic identities remain extremely strong and a major point of identity for many citizens of the different states. Politics in Africa is mostly determined by people’s ethnicity than any other factor including religion, gender and ideology. 7. While these dynamics are not unique to Africa, for some reason the case of the continent is often overlooked. Decades after independence, many expect that ethnic interests do not override “state interests”. Unfortunately, the opposite is the reality. 8. A close look at the many elections that are going to take place in the next 22 months would reveal that ethnicity mostly determines how people vote. The recent election in Nigeria made that quite clear. 9. Admittedly, it is common to find African Americans, Jewish Americans and Cuban Americans voting in a particular way. Regardless, strong institutions and transparent systems ensure that individuals from these communities have relatively good opportunities in society after elections. 10. In Africa, entrenched ethnic interest often produces zero-sum politics—winner takes all. This further makes conflicts take ethnic dimensions. 11. Even violent extremists take advantage of the situation to create footholds. The Tuareg, Fulani, and Mweni of Mali, Burkina Faso and Mozambique have been exploited by extremists to cause mayhem. 12. Like it was done by colonial powers, leaders who want to remain in power at the expense of long-term peace have built their power base around ethnicities. 13. If individuals, businesses, international organizations and other interests would understand Africa, they must pay attention to ethnic dynamics. 14. Many more..." #africa Riley Risk Inc. DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd unival group GmbH Image: map of Africa showing the different ethnicities.

Are all bystander reports regarding concerning behavior the same? A tip from a concerned mother who thinks she has tried everything to prevent her son from violence and now feels she must go to law enforcement is different from a tip from a stranger about a post they saw online by someone they don’t know; the stranger faces much lower barriers to reporting than the concerned parent. Ongoing education and awareness for BTAM practitioners regarding the nuances of bystander reporting and barriers bystanders face is imperative – and will contribute to preventing mass violence. Feeling very privileged to have written with Mary Rowe for the CREST Security Review on this topic - check out the full article in CSR Issue 19, Deterrence. https://lnkd.in/ejq8G4Z8

SitRep 07: Let's talk about insurance for journalists / humanitarians heading to Lebanon / Israel. Over the past week, we've been contacted no fewer than 20 times to ask if there are credible medical/crisis insurance options for #Lebanon and Northern #Israel. In short, at this time, no! For Lloyd's and company market #underwriters we're retained by, and the #insurancebrokers network we work with, we've advised that no new insurance policies should be written for Lebanon, Northern Israel, the West Bank and/or #Gaza due to the deteriorating security situation. This is a simple Conduct Risk issue. There's too many unknowns. Let’s take an emergency medical/crisis response #insurance policy for example. Brokers and insurers are selling a promise that medical and security assistance, including #evacuation, is available. In my opinion, it's not! There is not one single insurer, or assistance provider, who can guarantee being able to provide those services in Lebanon, or across the wider #MiddleEast, if a regional conflict escalates. When airspace and borders close, it will happen with little to no notice. For any person or organisation who has been sold a policy promising 24/7 assistance and response, in all likelihood, you/they will be left stranded. Buyer beware! In our experience of coordinating and conducting emergency evacuations for thousands of people, everywhere from Afghanistan and Ukraine to Sudan and Niger, despite the abundance of notice and multiple warnings that foreign citizens have had to leave Lebanon, there will still be thousands who have disregarded the warnings. Should a regional conflict escalate, airspace and borders crossings will close, communications will be switched off/disrupted, road blocks will be installed, and hospitals will be at maximum capacity. This will leave many stranded, with no communications, and in all likelihood not even the essentials of life such as food, water and medications. In Lebanon, it’s also likely that looting will start, especially of hotels and foreign company offices. The risk of #kidnapping and/or assassination to foreigners could also increase severely, especially for Americans and Brits (and allies), due to #Hezbollah and #Hamas quoting that their leaders were targeted using #intelligence provided by the #US and #UK. It’s important for underwriters to take a strategic pause on offering new policies in the Middle East. It’s an unnecessary Errors & Omissions (E&O) liability for brokers, and a completely unnecessary financial loss risk for underwriters. So where does this leave the #dutyofcare obligation that news media organisations and #NGOs have to their staff who deploy to a region on the brink of war? It's certainly a grey area. The costs of long-term safe housing and evacuations certainly should not fall to insurers when ample notice has been given to depart the country on the commercial options still available. Inherent Risks are continuing to monitor the situation closely.