Confluence Investment Management

How did the decisive November election results impact the bond market? Contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome. Confluence Advisory Director-Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses the post-election environment for bonds. Read this week's Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: https://lnkd.in/gMZJV8aH Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

Let's Talk About Tariffs! There are several ways to approach the subject of tariffs — a major discussion point in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool, but they have also been described as inflation boosters and a tax on the American consumer. In our most recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly, Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash sorts out the arguments and discusses the investment implications of increased tariffs. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gNenbnAN Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

We're talking big numbers this week: US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth takes us on a fact-based deep dive into the US debt situation to offer a perspective check for investors. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/ghpYUxjW Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Israel’s Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security: National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago.?This week, we explore how this groundbreaking attack has probably transformed security requirements and will likely lead to big, costly changes in global supply chains. We also delve into the underlying philosophies that help explain why this could impact globalization. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/g95-6j2u Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

As election day nears, we explore the foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates and their investment implications. History shows that US presidents tend to display remarkable foreign policy consistency across administrations, but they do attempt to pursue their priorities as circumstances permit. In this report, we characterize the candidates according to the main American foreign policy archetypes, consider potential cabinet members, and analyze their priorities as we know them. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/esvtVmTc Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

And that's a wrap on our 4th Asset Allocation CIMposium! Financial advisors, research professionals, and investment consultants had an insightful day diving deep into how our Adaptive Asset Allocation can be utilized within client portfolios. A special thanks to our incredible financial advisor panelists for sharing their best practices with their peers, and our keynote speaker Jim Bullard for his perspectives on the current trajectory of monetary policy in the US. #CIMposium #AssetAllocation #ETFs

Is a strong US dollar good or bad for investors? We are often asked about our outlook for the US dollar, but we find that most people are actually more concerned about purchasing power and inflation. In this geopolitical report + podcast, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process we use to measure the strength of the US dollar, providing some guideposts for thinking about exchange rates. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/g--RGsQN Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Activist vs. Accommodative Treasury Issuance: One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. In this week's report + podcast, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash unravels the various points of view and explains the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gxCKFAAN Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

In the recent Iranian presidential elections, a reformist/moderate candidate came out on top. In a country ruled by a highly conservative theocracy with a political system dominated by hardline, right-wing parties, how did this happen, and what does it mean for the rest of the world? Will it inspire changes in Iranian domestic politics or foreign policy? Finally, how will it affect the US, and what does it mean for investors? Read our most recent geopolitical report: https://lnkd.in/gRxtKJvu

For more than a decade, Confluence has been discussing the ways in which US voters have grown reluctant to shouldering the costs of global hegemony. More recently, we've examined how the resulting geopolitical tensions have led to a global fracturing into geopolitical and economic blocs, which will have big implications for investors. To gauge their impact, we've developed an objective, quantitative method to predict which bloc each country will adhere to in the coming years, and this week Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez updates his analysis. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gjJwzsTU