What does the Presidential election mean for the future of cleantech?
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*Harris*:?Last month, I interviewed?former Biden economic advisor Joelle Gamble, who has also been advising the?Harris?campaign. While?Harris?has her own vision, when it comes to climate and energy, we can expect strong continuity with the Biden Administration on key issues like renewables, electric vehicles, and innovation.
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*Trump*: A?Trump?win, on the other hand, would mean big shifts in energy policy. Many cleantech founders have reached out to us for help with contingency planning. There is, of course, a lot of uncertainty. But we can make some educated guesses. Last week, I interviewed?Michael Catanzaro, who led energy policy in the?Trump?White House and is advising the?Trump?transition on personnel and policy. Full link to podcast in the comments. Here are?four?take-aways:
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(1) Focus on Fossil Fuels
Trump?has clearly signaled that he will prioritize fossil fuels over renewables. Among other steps, a?Trump?Administration would likely?accelerate leasing for oil and natural gas production?on federal lands and speed up the permitting for natural gas pipelines.
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(2) The Inflation Reduction Act?has Staying Power, Probably
The IRA now benefits from?some support among Republicans in the House?whose districts are directly benefitting from clean energy investments. A full repeal of the IRA is unlikely. However, much of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 is set to expire at the end of 2025, which will force a Congressional debate on tax policy; in that context, some IRA tax provisions could be in jeopardy. A?Trump?Administration could also?slow ongoing IRA implementation, e.g., the pace at which grants are made.
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(3) Push Back on Electric Vehicles:
Trump?has attacked the Biden Administration’s approach to EVs. A?Trump?Administration could substantially weaken policies that are driving EV adoption, especially the?special waiver authority?that enables California to set its own stricter auto emission standards, which have a significant impact on national markets. However,?Trump?has also been vocal in his support for the auto industry, which is itself signaling a long-term commitment to EVs, which may make?Trump?slightly more cautious in rolling back some Biden policies.
(4) Mixed Bag on Renewables & Nuclear:
A second?Trump?Administration would likely?slow the deployment of offshore wind. In his first term,?Trump?also opposed solar development but has been?largely silent on the subject this campaign season. However,?Trump?would likely sustain?the Biden Administration’s tariffs on?solar panel imports. These tariffs raise costs for solar deployment.?Trump’s approach to nuclear seems roughly consistent with Biden, that is, modest support.