Cincinnati Asset Management, Inc.

2025 started out with a volatile quarter for fixed income. Investors eyed multiple geopolitical events and major U.S. policy shifts on global trade, driving a repricing of risk. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tightened with yields falling 36 basis points in Q1, and credit spreads widened across the risk spectrum. While there has been much hyperbole in recent days about challenges in the bond market, the data suggest that credit markets remained orderly and experienced positive inflows to start the year. Please see the CAM Q1 2025 Bond Market Review and Outlook https://lnkd.in/gaN-AmTN as well as our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gzDNJHbj, and High Yield https://lnkd.in/gJY8vT-S Quarterly Commentaries where we review some of the economic indicators that drove markets in Q1 and what we are looking for in Q2. For additional information please contact your client consultants at camconsultants@cambonds.com

Credit markets were driven by headline risk again this week. While we received downside surprises in both CPI and PPI, credit spreads widened across the spectrum and yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury moved higher on potential inflation fears due to tariff policy. While issuance was lighter than usual for the second week in a row demand for credit remained. For more detail on the week ending 4/11/25 please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gK4ZC7M2 and High Yield https://lnkd.in/gfMgGeiv Weekly Credit Market Notes. If you have any questions please reach out to your client consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com.

Markets were driven by the Trump administrations announcement of tariff policy this week. Spreads widened across the credit spectrum while 10-year Treasury yields retreated to the lowest levels of the year. Issuers largely took a pause this week as new issuance came in well below preliminary expectations. For more details on the week ending 4/4/25 please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/ggG7zsTF High Yield https://lnkd.in/gUrGsUwa Weekly Credit Market Note. Please contact your Client Consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com with any questions. 

The week ending 3/14/25 saw volatility hit all markets as investors signaled the increased possibility for a slowdown in the US economy. While the 10-year Treasury stayed range bound, credit spreads widened across the credit spectrum. Despite the volatility, as of Friday morning 3/14/25 both indexes remained in positive territory year to date and issuance remained orderly. For more details on this week’s credit markets and what we are looking at going into next week please see Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gHKfHej5 and High Yield https://lnkd.in/g5hYCbwi Weekly Credit Market Notes. If you have any questions please reach out to your client consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com

Week ending 2/21/25 was a holiday shortened week with little economic data reported. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting that were released highlighted a consensus by FED Governors that the “wait and see” approach to further rate cuts and that holding policy rate if inflation remain elevated was appropriate. It was a relatively slow week until Friday where a strong equity market selloff sparked a rally in treasury yield with the 10-year US Treasury falling 9bps. For additional information on what drove the markets please see our Weekly Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/eERCjQbt and High Yield https://lnkd.in/eAbyMmSv Credit Market Note. If you have any questions please contact you CAM Client Consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com

The week ending 1/31/25 was data filled with the consumer confidence, GDP, and PCE reports all being released during the week. The headlines however came from the FOMC meeting this week where Chairman Powell announced that there would be a pause in rate cuts and further mentioned they were in no hurry to reduce rates, this was in line with industry expectations. Despite all the news 10-year US Treasury rates remained range bound for the week finishing slightly lower. For more details on what drove credit markets this week please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gtidQBf7 and High Yield https://lnkd.in/gYujXCrh Weekly Credit Market Note. If you have any additional questions please contact your client consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com

2024 was a strong year for credit as we saw credit spreads tighten across the curve. Lower credit quality debt outperformed against the back drop of a strong US economy and investors demand for yield. The ten year US Treasury yield rose from 3.88% to start 2024 to 4.57% at years end which brought a positive slope to the 2 /10 part of the yield curve for the first time since 2021. As we start 2025 markets have been volatile as there uncertainty surrounding continued US growth, the path of inflation, and policy change with a new administration entering Washington. Please see the CAM 2024 Bond Market Review and Outlook https://lnkd.in/gpzg2_m9 and our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gVKpfaHb and High Yield https://lnkd.in/g2ynzHHX Quarterly Commentary where we review some of the economic indicators that affected markets in 2024 and highlight what we are looking to drive markets in 2025. For additional information please contact your client consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com.

As we enter the home stretch of 2024 credit markets remained range bound this week as the 10-year Treasury yields finished within a basis point of where they started the week and there were modest gains across the credit spectrum. There were no surprises in economic data this week and Friday’s employment report seemed to keep the Fed on track for a December cut. For more details on the week ending 12/6/24 please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gxC3a6ku and High Yield https://lnkd.in/gSdVT5YG Weekly Credit Market Note. If you have additional questions or would like to speak with your CAM Client Consultant please contact us at camconsultants@cambonds.com

Spreads widened and 10-year US Treasury rates ticked higher this week as the markets digested a slew of economic data and comments from the Fed Chair. PPI and Retail Sales data both came in stronger than expected. Chairman Powell stated that the Fed “was in no hurry” to raise the policy rate sparking some volatility in Treasury yields. For more detail on what drove credit markets the week ending 11/15/24 please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/g5bHsmCA and High Yield https://lnkd.in/gdmi7maY Weekly Credit Market Notes. If you have additional questions or would like to speak with your CAM Client Consultant please contact us at camconsultants@cambonds.com

A busy week as credit markets processed the results of the US Presidential election and a FOMC meeting that resulted in a 25 bps cut to the policy rate. 10-year Treasury yields are about where they started after surging higher on Wednesday. For more details on week ending 11/8/24 please see our Investment Grade https://lnkd.in/gqki8sgR and High Yield https://lnkd.in/ginHHsQe Weekly Credit Market Notes. If you have any questions please reach out your client consultant at camconsultants@cambonds.com