Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

?? AI could unlock incredible benefits or unleash catastrophic risks. At TEDAI San Francisco 2024, Paul Scharre, Executive Vice President Center for a New American Security (CNAS) makes the case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure. Instead of focusing solely on software, he argues that the physical hardware powering AI must also be governed to ensure responsible development. ?? Watch now on ted.com: https://lnkd.in/dMt9PJKg ??Early Bird Tickets for TEDAI San Francisco 2025 are open!? https://lnkd.in/dFydkYuj #TEDAI #AIRegulation #ArtificialIntelligence #AIethics #TechPolicy #FutureOfAI #ResponsibleAI

The Digital Silk Road (DSR) is China’s initiative to shape critical digital infrastructure around the world to advance its geopolitical interests and technology leadership. As the DSR marks its 10th anniversary, CNAS has undertaken a major research project to assess its impact and explore how the United States and its allies can offer a more compelling and coherent alternative. The project will produce four in-depth case studies of strategically critical nations—Indonesia, Brazil, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia—and culminate in a full-length report. The first case study focuses on Indonesia. With Southeast Asia’s largest digital economy, Indonesia has traditionally balanced economic engagement with China and security ties with the United States. However, this approach faces new pressures as the lines between commercial digital infrastructure and national security blur. Read the full report ?? https://lnkd.in/eHHgCCJ4

I'm pleased to share my newest report: Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses https://lnkd.in/eJbhPGAp Here's the executive summary: China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three overarching analytical lenses, or categories of factors, that shape Beijing’s nuclear decision-making: leadership, weapons systems and military organizations, and official policies and doctrine. On leadership, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely sees nuclear weapons granting prestige and growing in relevance, but his views on nuclear weapons’ efficacy are less clear. On weapons systems and military organizations, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal provides the country’s leaders with new options, which could shift those leaders’ intentions over time. Implementation of those options, though, runs through often-corrupt People’s Liberation Army military organizations. On official policies and doctrine, Beijing possibly sees its professed stance as a country that does not engage in U.S.- and Russian-style arms buildups as a source of diplomatic influence, particularly in the developing world or Global South. Separately, the circumstances where China’s nuclear no-first-use policy would face a true test—for example, during a major Taiwan contingency—are precisely the moments when Beijing would have massive incentives to selectively interpret or simply abandon that policy. In the near term, China’s official nuclear weapons policies will likely stay the same, so the gap between rhetoric and action will grow. A bigger arsenal and more nuclear rhetoric and signaling will, over time, also shape future Chinese coercion campaigns. In response, U.S. policymakers should commission an intelligence assessment of Xi’s views of specific nuclear crises, pressure China to issue more explanation of its nuclear policies and capabilities, and expand information sharing about missile tests on a reciprocal basis. U.S. policymakers should also make an authoritative policy statement on what would constitute China reaching nuclear parity with the United States and counter China’s nuclear buildup using both conventional and nuclear capabilities. Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

In 2024, the United States issued an unprecedented number of financial #sanctions and entity-based export controls. Washington’s economic statecraft has expanded in recent years, largely in response to #Russia’s war in Ukraine, competition with the People’s Republic of #China, and tensions in the Middle East. These geopolitical developments, along with escalating concerns about deepening ties among U.S. adversaries, shaped how the United States deployed its coercive economic toolkit last year. This installment of Sanctions by the Numbers examines the United States’ use of financial sanctions—through the Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) List—and entity-based export controls—via the Commerce Department’s Entity List—in 2024. Read the full analysis ?? https://lnkd.in/g-nGpr8g

As China rapidly expands and modernizes its nuclear arsenal, a new report from Jacob Stokes analyzes how the PRC views its nuclear power. The report analyzes China's nuclear decision-making through three interconnected lenses: “Leadership,” studying how Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely views nuclear weapons as a source of prestige while maintaining ambiguity about how he views their geopolitical effectiveness; “Weapons Systems and Military Organizations,” examining how the expanding nuclear arsenal of the People’s Liberation Army creates new strategic options despite organizational challenges; and “Official Policies and Doctrine,” highlighting how China's no-first-use policy could be reinterpreted in a future conflict, particularly over Taiwan. Read the full report and its recommendations:

No one country in Europe has the financial and industrial resources to replace the United States, but together they can add up to formidable support to Ukraine. Read the new article from Celeste Wallander in Foreign Affairs Magazine

With AI and autonomy set to shape modern conflicts, the United States must develop agile and iterative testing and evaluation (T&E) processes that match the pace of technological advancement. A report from Josh Wallin highlights the need for a dynamic approach to T&E that balances opportunity with responsible risk management as AI plays an expanding role in military operations. Read the full report ?? https://lnkd.in/eM4NFUSX

"Believing Putin shares America’s long-held, bipartisan interest in forever preventing the development of an Iranian bomb is tantamount to believing the wolf can negotiate on behalf of the fox to reach a nonaggression pact with the hen house. The wolf and the fox are more likely to carve up the chickens between them than negotiate a deal in good faith that preserves the poultry." Jonathan L. argues in Foreign Policy:

While the United States currently leads the world in AI, we cannot take this position for granted. A?promote and protect?approach to American AI dominance will enable the United States to capitalize on its technological advantages and promote a global technology ecosystem underpinned by democratic values such as free speech, transparency, and respect for civil liberties. CNAS AI experts gathered to outline concrete policy actions for the Trump administration to secure and strengthen America’s AI dominance across five themes: Promote America’s AI Advantage, Protect America’s AI Edge, Monitor and Shape Frontier AI Development, Secure American AI-Bio Leadership, and Accelerate AI Adoption in the Military. Read recommendations from CNAS experts Paul Scharre, Vivek Chilukuri,?Becca Wasser, Josh Wallin, Michael Depp,?Bill Drexel,?Janet Egan, Michael Depp, and Caleb Withers here:

The Trump administration is developing its AI Action Plan and put out a call for ideas. In response, several of us from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) have shared 15 pages of ideas to promote and protect America's AI edge. I've highlighted a few below, but you can read the full list through the link. ??♂?Fast-track secure AI infrastructure, including energy generation, transmission, and data centers. America should combine its advantage in AI chips with the ability to quickly deploy them at scale without waiting years for antiquated permitting processes to resolve. ????Attract top AI talent from the world. Specifically, the administration should add high-demand, shortage-prone AI jobs to the DOL's Schedule A List, which makes it easier to hire top foreign talent. It can also clarify guidance and coordination for the O-1A and EB-1A visas for foreigners with "extraordinary ability" in AI. Finally, it should create and expand STEM visa and talent exchange programs with our closest security partners, like members of the Five Eyes alliance. ??Develop a comprehensive strategy to promote U.S. AI globally. We need to better balance efforts to restrict access to American AI from competitors like China, epitomized by the AI Diffusion Rule, with an ambitious vision to promote it with close partners and "swing" states.? ??Partner with industry to boost security at AI labs and data centers. As the capabilities of U.S. AI models grow, so will the incentive for sophisticated foreign adversaries to steal or sabotage them. As an example, government and industry can partner to develop best practices to secure AI model weights. ??Establish mechanisms to detect and track real-world AI incidents. The government needs a systematic and secure way to track and learn from AI incidents as adoption accelerates. This mechanism would also help build an evidence base to tailor future policymaking. ?? Promote foundational research to make frontier AI models more robust and reliable. The potential of AI adoption across the national security enterprise is great, but so is the bar for trust and reliability. Instead of being passive consumers of emerging AI capabilities, DARPA/IARPA should fund high-risk, high-reward projects to drive breakthroughs in AI robustness and reliability. You can see the rundown of all 17 recommendations here from me and my CNAS colleagues Paul Scharre, Becca Wasser, Janet Egan, Josh Wallin, Bill Drexel, Caleb Withers, and Michael Depp. https://lnkd.in/guztuYPz