The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, far below expectations of +110,000 in the Bloomberg survey and +115,000 in the Reuters poll. This unexpected slowdown was driven by a significant drop in temporary help, which appears to reflect both ongoing strike activity and the lingering impact of hurricane disruptions on production labor. Notably, temporary help represents the largest share of the workforce in this sector, so this decline is particularly noteworthy.
Looking closely at the occupational data, employment in production activities fell by 283,000 in October. With work stoppages hopefully winding down and rebuilding efforts in hurricane-affected areas picking up steam, we can hope for a rebound in the coming months.
On a more positive note, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that while job openings continue to decline, hiring activity has seen a modest uptick. Hiring has gradually increased over the past three months since bottoming out in June. Much of this rebound is concentrated in the Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services sectors, which saw solid growth. In September, key industries like Manufacturing, Retail Trade, and Transportation & Warehousing also saw notable hiring activity.
While labor market data can be volatile, the recent uptick in manufacturing hiring is a promising sign for staffing and job growth heading into the final quarter of the year. It’s clear that the labor market, despite its recent challenges, is showing signs of recovery and resilience.
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