Cambrian Futures

Cambrian Futures is thrilled to welcome Oumou L. to our Board of Advisers, bolstering our #cybersecurity and #ecosystem-security expertise. Ly recently concluded nearly four years as a senior adviser in the Biden Administration, most recently at the White House and previously at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. As one of the nation’s leading experts on cybersecurity and emerging tech policy, her perspectives will enhance Cambrian’s #GeoTech analysis and the transformations that become necessary for clients at the intersection of AI and cyber with global business, policy and geopolitics. At Cambrian Futures, we work closely with members of our Board of Advisers to bring their seasoned expertise to our clients. If you or your organization are looking to improve postures, refine strategies or curate a roadmap for navigating emerging tech-driven transformation in your unique environment, we invite you to connect with us for a consultation. Olaf J Groth, PhD | Debbie Taylor Moore | Dan Zehr | David Babington | Mark Nitzberg | Tobias Straube | Sabra Horne | Tom Sanderson | Erin C Conaton | Stephen Goodman | Julia Reinhardt | Orlagh Neary | Craig Lee | Laura Peterson | Sheryl Connelly | George Casey | Nicholas Davis | Paul S. Triolo

The portfolio management approach for AI initiatives Last week, we asked about the concerns leaders had about returns on their artificial intelligence deployments. Despite the excitement about AI’s potential, the responses confirmed that most organizations are still trying to identify what drives actual value. If you’re one of the many still assessing the impact of your AI initiatives, consider a portfolio management approach. First, test your new AI projects against one another and make sure existing projects still pass muster. Then, plot the remaining viable initiatives on a graph between Technical Feasibility and Adoption. This will categorize projects into four quadrants, which you can use to better understand your AI portfolio and its potential ROI. –?Experimental (Low Technical Feasibility; Low Adoption) –?Solution Development (High Technical Feasibility; Low Adoption) – Fast Development (Low Technical Feasibility; High Adoption) –?Moonshot (High Technical Feasibility; High Adoption) Where do most of your projects fall? Are they in quadrants you expected or wanted and, if not, is it worth the investment to move them there? Let us know what you think in the comments below. Olaf J Groth, PhD | Debbie Taylor Moore | Dan Zehr | David Babington | Mark Nitzberg | Michael Jeffrey | Tobias Straube | J. Nicholas Gross | Sabra Horne | Tom Sanderson | Erin C Conaton | Stephen Goodman | Julia Reinhardt | Orlagh Neary | Craig Lee | Laura Peterson | Sheryl Connelly

Are you on the right path to Value Realization / ROI for your AI experiments?? Investors are growing more nervous about downstream returns on AI investments, so it’s critical that leaders adopt a more thoughtful and deliberate approach to experiment design, evolutionary pathways, and how to measure progress. At the end of the day, any AI solution needs to boost the top line (whether economic or social) or the bottom-line (i.e. profitability). Early stage experimentation – even when geared toward learning, exploring, or employee and customer satisfaction – must intentionally focus on impact. Time delays and breaks in the impact chain should result in disciplined reviews and adjustments. Olaf J Groth, PhD | Debbie Taylor Moore | Dan Zehr | David Babington | Mark Nitzberg | Michael Jeffrey | Tobias Straube | J. Nicholas Gross | Sabra Horne | Tom Sanderson | Erin C Conaton | Stephen Goodman | Julia Reinhardt | Orlagh Neary | Craig Lee | Laura Peterson | Sheryl Connelly

Foresight and Strategy at GIZ Jordan ???Our world is changing faster than ever. The recent U.S. elections, unforeseen shifts within Germany’s government, and regional developments all remind us that uncertainty is the new norm. Many futures appear plausible, yet we somehow must accept the fact that nobody can really predict in which direction the world is headed. To navigate these times, #strategicforesight?has become essential as a foundation for shaping proactive, adaptive, and resilient strategy development.?Building on a learning journey to Berlin in May this year, our senior management team at GIZ Jordan recently collaborated with Tobias Straube from Cambrian Futures on a foresight exercise powered by AI-driven insights. Why does foresight matter to us? As an organization committed to long-term resilience and #sustainability, foresight is more than just glimpsing potential futures—it is about making a positive contribution to shape them. Our recent foresight exercise brought several critical areas into focus: ?? Creating Resilient Strategies: Strategy without foresight is blind to what happens around us — a recipe for failure. Yet foresight without strategy remains speculation. Resilient strategies allow us to anticipate and adapt to diverse scenarios, empowering us to make bold, long-term decisions. By analysing potential futures and their impact on our ecosystem and GIZ Jordan, we ask ourselves what we can do today to have long-term sustainable impact across multiple possible outcomes. ?? Empowering Inclusive Progress: In an era of rising inequality and complex needs, we require strategies that are both adaptable and inclusive, ensuring that no one is left behind. Foresight enables us to identify where disparities could worsen and to develop pathways that foster shared growth and opportunity. ?? Building Collective Resilience: Resilience is more than withstanding challenges—it is about thriving through adaptation. We see resilience as a shared strength, built through collaboration with governments, communities, and international partners. Together, we ensure that our actions today account for tomorrow’s uncertainties. ?? Catalysing Innovation for Real Impact: With foresight, we stay ahead of trends and grow as a knowledge-driven, expert organization. As technology, particularly #ArtificialIntelligence, plays an increasingly critical role, we must ask ourselves: How can GIZ Jordan strategically build and integrate AI’s opportunities and risks in its planning and operations? At #GIZJordan, we are constantly learning to position ourselves in ways that allow us to foster future resilience, ready to evolve alongside our partners. In a world defined by constant change, we believe in using foresight not simply to react, but to contribute—empowering people and communities to adapt and flourish. #StrategicForesight #SDGs #AI #FutureReadiness #SustainableDevelopment #GIZ

The two key pillars of any AI-driven economic strategy's success are: 'Talent Development' and the 'Institutional Ecosystem'. In this short clip, Olaf J Groth, PhD elaborates on why these two are critical pillars for any economic strategy that relies on AI. While many AI innovators look at their verticals, these macro perspectives on AI are valuable. Olaf is a Global Strategist, Think Tank Founder, and Author of multiple AI books. He is serving as the founder and CEO of a Think Tank advisory firm, Cambrian Futures. He is also part of the faculty at the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business, Hult International Business School, and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. The link to Olaf's complete interview is in the comments section below. #ai #aritificialintelligence #ai #innovation #technology #siliconvalleytechtalks

Yet another thoughtful conversation with CBS News KPIX | CBS San Francisco/Bay Area anchor Elizabeth Cook, this one about #tech in the upcoming elections. ?? Deepfakes: -- There is significant concern about the rise of #deepfakes, with a 303% increase in the U.S. this year posing a threat to election integrity. Legislative measures, human oversight, and technological "speed bumps" are crucial to preventing #AI-generated content from influencing elections (see yesterday’s post for more specifics). -- #Watermarking and #data footprint assessments provides a potential solution, but policies to prohibit their removal and other tech tools are needed to create more robust approaches to detecting and managing deepfakes. ?? Trump-Musk Interview: -- #ElonMusk attempted to use the #Trump interview to bolster the #X's relevance. Easier said than done, given the renewed technical glitches. Trump sought to use the regained X audience to control a political narrative that has shifted a bit in recent weeks as #Harris / #Walz gained momentum.? -- The algorithmic power of platforms like X, and the bots on them, can help “flood the zone” (#SteveBannon) with narratives, whether truthful or not. Even slight changes can potentially anchor public #biases, though the direct effect on voting behavior is often uncertain. -- We need algo and bot transparency rules and audits for political campaigns. Let's hope the #FEC and #FCC will figure this one out fast. See the complete conversation here: https://lnkd.in/gwDK8Ab5 Cambrian Futures | University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business |?Orlagh Neary | Debbie Taylor Moore | Mark Nitzberg | Dan Zehr | Tobias Straube | Manu Kalia | Rehan Khan | Stephen Goodman | Michael Jeffrey | J. Nicholas Gross | Julia Reinhardt | Adam Tatarynowicz | Burkhard Schrage | Tom Sanderson | Gladys Kuzmuk | Kirthi Kumar | Lauren May Hildenbrand |? Ander Dobo | Ryan L. | Lea Alwine Anna Feline Senner | David Babington | Adair Morse | Craig Lee | Thomas Neubert | Stefan Heuser

What to do about AI-Powered election interference: Roughly half the global population will go to the ballot box this year and will be bombarded by misinformation — including an explosion of increasingly sophisticated #AI-generated deepfakes. Here are five reasons for concern: ?? #Deepfakes are getting better, and they don’t even have to be perfect: The AI-generated robocalls in Joe Biden’s voice that urged voters to stay home in New Hampshire didn’t fool every voter, but average voters don’t have time to discern authenticity, especially as those fakes get better and better. ?? The “liar’s dividend”: Politicians and pundits exploit the existence of deepfakes to dismiss real evidence as fake, further eroding trust in authentic #media? ?? Opening voters to foreign influence: The distribution of foreign propaganda and manipulation of voters gets easier and easier.? ?? Trust lost twice: Deepfakes undermine #public trust in the #electoral process, but also the use of AI, potentially generating a backlash against beneficial AI applications. ?? Regulatory and technological countermeasures are weak: #Federal #laws on deepfakes are limited, and only a few states have tried to plug the gap. Technological innovation, meanwhile, has not come up with effective tools to counter deepfakes. ?? ?? What to do: Clearly, we need more #regulations with teeth that mandate human fact-checkers,? and codify the ethical compass of app developers and digital managers in political campaigns. Meanwhile, innovators have started to develop solutions: Concepts such as #watermarking and footprint scoring, including Cambrian Futures’ #PIDA-BouncerBot IP, as well as #entityresolution and automating reverse image search and verification, can help ensure authenticity.? https://www.cambrian.ai/ Find out more here: https://lnkd.in/e5hhNi-j https://lnkd.in/e87i7GJS https://lnkd.in/eKxXVmz9 https://lnkd.in/ep6s4vCp https://lnkd.in/euuPaws5 https://lnkd.in/ezjH4QwH Cambrian Futures University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business Orlagh Neary Debbie Taylor Moore Mark Nitzberg Dan Zehr Tobias Straube Rehan Khan Stephen Goodman Michael Jeffrey J. Nicholas Gross Julia Reinhardt Adam Tatarynowicz Burkhard Schrage Tom Sanderson Gladys Kuzmuk Kirthi Kumar Lauren May Hildenbrand Ryan L.. Lea Alwine Anna Feline Senner David Babington Adair Morse Craig Lee Thomas Neubert Stefan Heuser

Intel cuts 15% of its workforce as it struggles to catch up with leaders in #AI chipmaking: ?? To avoid falling further behind #TSMC, #Intel is squeezing 4 generations of latest production technologies into a 4-year time frame. That would normally take 8 years. For this bold move to pay off, the company needs more time, but the markets might not have that much patience. ?? To be sure, Intel is not yet failing, economically at least. It’s also too big to fail from a U.S. supply security standpoint. But it needs to act fast to stay relevant. ?? It made mistakes by focusing on laptops rather than cloud computing. Missing the #market seems to be a theme – it had missed the mobile market before. Now it is competing unfavorably on two fronts:?Mobile / Edge AI (with #Qualcomm) and #Cloud AI (with #NVIDIA, #AMD, etc.). There’s still time to correct, but not much. ?? It may also need to rethink the timing around the buildout of its #fabs in Poland and Germany, given that investors are already getting skittish about seeing returns on AI.?Capex and value realization need to be timed, synchronized and communicated carefully. With such rapid tech evolution and global uncertainty now a constant, sensing approaches like horizon scanning, ecosystem forwarding, and #scenario planning — such as the #FLPIT framework with its portfolio design backend – can help companies scan trend horizons and map ecosystem futures to avoid missteps like these. https://www.cambrian.ai/ Cambrian Futures | University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business | Orlagh Neary | Debbie Taylor Moore | Mark Nitzberg | Dan Zehr | Tobias Straube | Manu Kalia | Rehan Khan | Stephen Goodman | Michael Jeffrey | J. Nicholas Gross | Julia Reinhardt | Adam Tatarynowicz | Burkhard Schrage | Tom Sanderson | Gladys Kuzmuk | Kirthi Kumar | Lauren May Hildenbrand |?Ander Dobo | Ryan L.. | Lea Alwine Anna Feline Senner | David Babington | Adair Morse | Craig Lee | Thomas Neubert | Stefan Heuser

How should companies measure the value of #AI investments? Executives are starting to feel pressure from investors who wonder whether significant investments in #AI #projects will actually generate returns. Last month, an EY report noted that many companies hadn’t built the AI infrastructure necessary for long term success, despite significant spending. Then just last week, Gartner Inc. predicted that nearly a third of corporate #GenAI projects “will be abandoned after proof of concept” by the end of next year, citing everything from poor data and risk controls to “unclear business value.” The Gartner report raised an especially interesting point –?the value of GenAI might emerge from indirect sources, so it will require “a higher tolerance for indirect, future financial investment criteria versus immediate return on investment (ROI).” So how should companies measure value? This has become a key question for the team at Cambrian Futures, and core to our Company AI Readiness (CAIR) assessment and a new Value Realization Framework. Absent efforts to pierce through the hype and create clarity on measurable value, companies will either limit the value of their AI investments or abandon projects that were ill-advised from the start.? https://www.cambrian.ai/ University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business |? Orlagh Neary | Debbie Taylor Moore | Mark Nitzberg | Dan Zehr | Tobias Straube | Manu Kalia | Rehan Khan | Stephen Goodman | Michael Jeffrey | J. Nicholas Gross | Julia Reinhardt | Adam Tatarynowicz | Burkhard Schrage | Tom Sanderson | Gladys Kuzmuk | Kirthi Kumar | Sana Pandey | Lauren May Hildenbrand |? Ander Dobo | Ryan L.. | Lea Alwine Anna Feline Senner | Bartu Onat Arik | Tracy Dao. | David Babington | Adair Morse | Craig Lee.

Do you know what the "Copied Act" is? You should. It could ring in a data business model revolution! The bipartisan Content Origin Protection and Integrity from Edited and Deepfaked Media Act (COPIED Act) seeks to help users differentiate between real and artificial media by making it illegal to remove #watermarks from #AI-generated content. But it could also turn into a sea change in today’s data economy: protect #individual #data footprints from misappropriation and the obfuscation of its ownership. For both we will need to walk a fine line with methods that secure watermarks without impeding innovation. Cambrian’s PIDA (Privacy-Inclusive Data Access) patents do exactly that: they include watermarking and selective permissioning of data flows with rating of both data creators and data buyers.? Solutions like these will bring more high quality, authenticated data that matches demand more closely and allocates value more efficiently: https://lnkd.in/geKAkUUq Whoever applies this in their business models will have a head seat at the table in the new data economy. Cambrian Futures | University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business |? Orlagh Neary | Debbie Taylor Moore | Mark Nitzberg | Dan Zehr | Tobias Straube | Manu Kalia | Rehan Khan | Stephen Goodman | Michael Jeffrey | J. Nicholas Gross | Julia Reinhardt | Adam Tatarynowicz | Burkhard Schrage | Tom Sanderson | Gladys Kuzmuk | Kirthi Kumar | Sana Pandey | Lauren May Hildenbrand |? Ander Dobo | Ryan L.. | Lea Alwine Anna Feline Senner | Bartu Onat Arik | Tracy Dao. | David Babington | Adair Morse | Craig Lee.