Brandywine Global Investment Management

In his Global Macro Overview, Head of Global Macro Strategy Paul Mielczarski highlights some of the primary drivers for the economy in Q3 and shares potential opportunities in fixed income for the remainder of 2024. https://bit.ly/4eAU4Yp

Growth factors dominated in the first half but lagged behind value in Q3 2024. For the year, growth factors are still quite strong based on their earlier outperformance. Read our analysis of equity market performance: https://bit.ly/4gZEtTX

Despite some labor market weakness, Head of Global Macro Strategy Paul Mielczarski believes broader economic conditions point toward a soft landing for the US economy. Real GDP is still growing and consumer spending remains healthy, supported by real disposable income growth. Financial conditions have eased considerably in recent months while positive corporate earnings growth should support capex spending going forward: https://bit.ly/3TUnYi8

Value factors, which trailed the market and growth badly in the first half of the year, rebounded in the third quarter. Low price-to-earnings and low price-to-book performed best within the broad large-cap segment. However, value factors generally remain well behind year to date. Read our analysis of recent equity market performance: https://bit.ly/4gZEtTX

China’s recent stimulus package is significant in that it indicates policymakers acknowledge growth is weak and needs urgent and decisive policy support. As Portfolio Manager Tracy Chen explains, the “shock and awe” approach is necessary to salvage China’s balance sheet recession. And markets appear to be welcoming the unusual urgency and forcefulness. The Chinese stock market rallied along with the renminbi, while the government bond market started to sell off: https://bit.ly/4eD91cg

PM Jack McIntyre joins Reuters to share why he is currently bearish on the US dollar. However, he adds that the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election makes is difficult to have high conviction. "The wild card in any forecast right now for our currency is the U.S. election," he says: https://reut.rs/3BucPy1

With the upcoming US election, there are many significant issues and policy changes proposed by both parties with attendant implications for the economy. However, Head of Global Macro Strategy Paul Mielczarski believes financial markets are currently focusing largely on two: trade and fiscal policy. https://bit.ly/3XGLYX4

Today is Indigenous Peoples’ Day, when we honor native cultures and communities while recognizing the invaluable contributions that they have made to the US and the world.

Portfolio Manager John McClain joins Bloomberg to discuss recent trends in debt-funded dividends, including dividend recapitalizations, as merger and acquisition activity has slowed. “It’s a return of cap to LPs — you haven’t seen a pick back up in M&A so how else are you going to return capital?” he adds: https://bloom.bg/3ZSsPUH

Portfolio Manager Jack McIntyre joins Reuters to share his perspective on the US dollar as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have added to the currency’s recent decline. However, he cautions that "It's not just necessarily 'sell the dollar and buy everything,'. You have to be a little more selective." https://reut.rs/3BucPy1