Beaumont Capital Management (BCM)

?? U.S. investors often take for granted the wealth of high-quality economic data available to us. One key source of data is the Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Every month, the BLS surveys 60,000 U.S. households to collect essential data on employment, work hours, earnings, and more. The information derived from the CPS is crucial for government, businesses, and investors alike. Did you know that the BLS was set to reduce the CPS sample size starting in January 2025 due to budget constraints? Fortunately, thanks to a provision in the recent continuing resolution, the BLS has suspended its plan to scale back the survey. ?? While the proposed reduction—5,000 households— was expected to have a limited impact on the accuracy of population level data, it would have further eroded a sample size already diminished by declining participation. Over the past decade, survey response rates have fallen significantly, with the BLS reporting that only 70% of households responded to the CPS in October 2024, down from 89% in October 2014. Reducing the sample size further would limit the survey's accuracy and effectiveness. ?? As investors, we rely on robust, representative data to make informed decisions. Supporting the CPS and other essential surveys is an investment in the accuracy and depth of information that underpins the U.S. economy. I hope that Congress continues to recognize and fund this vital resource in the years ahead. #BLS #CPS #EconomicData #LaborMarket

A little over a month ago, the Federal Reserve kicked off the current monetary easing cycle, cutting the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%). Since then, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than in any other easing cycle over the past 35 years. Could this be a sign the Fed made a mistake, as some in the financial media suggest? ?? ?? Let’s break it down. Historically, it’s quite common for the 10-year yield to rise in the month following a Fed rate cut. Why? Lower short-term rates are intended to spur economic activity, and the expectation of increased economic activity tends to lift intermediate and long-term rates. Looking a little further out, the 10-year yield’s path often depends on economic outcomes. In stronger cycles (e.g., 1995, 1998), yields held steady as recessions didn’t occur. Conversely, in downturns (e.g., 2007, 2020), the Fed ended up chasing yields lower. So, what’s different this time? Unlike past cycles, the Fed isn’t waiting for recession signals before easing. With inflation back near the Fed’s 2% target, and a solid economy—low unemployment, increased spending, and GDP growth—the Fed is proactively adjusting rates. This approach has helped investors gain confidence that the Fed won’t stifle economic momentum by keeping short-term rates too restrictive. Do you think the Fed’s proactive approach will pay off, or did the Fed make a mistake? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/e2XgK9K8 #InterestRates #FederalReserve #MarketInsights

In a recent ThinkAdvisor article, Lou Maiuri, Chairman and Group CEO, and Michael Kim, President and CEO of AssetMark, shared their vision for the firm’s future following the GTCR acquisition. They discussed plans to expand capabilities in liquidity management and alternative investments, all while staying true to our mission of empowering financial advisors. With GTCR’s support, AssetMark is set to bring new resources and innovation to help advisors thrive in a competitive, tech-driven landscape. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gQ4p_Wx9 #AssetMark #WealthManagement #Innovation #GTCR #FinancialAdvisors #ThinkAdvisor

The ETF ecosystem keeps growing each year, but so does the ETF graveyard. ?? This year, we've noticed a rise in ETF closures within our investment universe. In a recent episode of the Trillions podcast, Eric Balchunas, Joel Weber, Vildana Hajric, and Todd Rosenbluth offer a detailed breakdown of the funds that closed in 2024 and why. ETF strategists, like us, have benefited greatly from ETF providers slicing and dicing the markets in every imaginable way. However, this approach has seen far more success in U.S. equity markets compared to international ones. In our ongoing curation of our ETF universe, we’ve noticed there is already a dearth of sector and thematic ETFs for international markets and even more closed this year. While we would like our strategies to have access to more niche areas of international markets, unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of demand to disaggregate international equities in the same way that we have in the U.S. It takes more than a unique story to succeed in the market, and sadly, many ETFs never get their moment in the sun. Were there any ETFs you were excited about that ended up closing? Listen to the podcast here: https://lnkd.in/eSmg83zn #ETF #Investing #TrillionsPodcast #Finance

?? "?????? ???????????? ?????? ??????????, ?????? ???????? ?????? ????????????" ?? This quote from statistician George E. P. Box captures the essence of my reaction to most long-term forecasts. After all, a forecast is nothing more than a model of what the future ??????????bring. Recently, Bloomberg Intelligence released a set of predictions for generative AI spending and U.S. data center electricity use over the remainder of the current decade: ?????? ????????????????: Bloomberg forecasts nearly $1 trillion in global generative AI spending by 2030. ?? ?????????????? ??????: In one scenario, U.S. data centers could account for up to 20% of the country's electricity consumption. ? Tech companies seem to be relying on similar forecasts to justify the ongoing AI arms race, investing tens of billions in advanced data centers to support and train cutting edge generative AI models. While I don’t have a strong view on future AI spending, I’m skeptical that generative AI will achieve widespread adoption while remaining as power hungry as it is today. And while long-term forecasts for such a rapidly evolving technology will almost certainly be wrong, examining their implications can be a fun way to think about the future they suggest. What are your thoughts on these forecasts? Could data centers really consume such a large share of U.S. electricity by 2030? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/e5dmRA_R #GenerativeAI #DataCenters #TechForecasts #AI #Energy #FiresideCharts

Debt is always a contentious topic in financial circles. At the household level, rising debt can signal anything from confidence in future earnings to financial stress. But at the macro level, the story is often different. Household debt has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and while some may view this as a sign of stress, I believe demographics could be driving this trend. ?? What do you think rising household debt says about the economy? ?? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/ehi-TDuq #Economics #Demographics #Debt #Finance

Debt is always a contentious topic in financial circles. At the household level, rising debt can signal anything from confidence in future earnings to financial stress. But at the macro level, the story is often different. Household debt has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and while some may view this as a sign of stress, I believe demographics could be driving this trend. ?? What do you think rising household debt says about the economy? ?? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/ehi-TDuq #Economics #Demographics #Debt #Finance

Does anyone still remember last year’s banking crisis? It’s hard to believe it was only a year and a half ago! ?? What Happened? The crisis was triggered by rising interest rates, which devalued long-term assets and led to a classic bank run, ultimately resulting in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and several others. ?? How Did the Fed Respond? The Federal Reserve stepped in with emergency lending programs to stabilize the situation, ensuring banks could meet withdrawals without having to liquidate high quality assets at a mark to market loss. ?? Here’s what stood out to me: The Fed is often a target for criticism in our industry, but credit should be given where it’s due. As these programs wind down, last year’s banking crisis feels like a distant memory. ? Do you think the Fed’s response was effective in managing the crisis? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/eFWCfzMS #Banking #Finance #Investing #FederalReserve

We were expecting a calm week in the markets, but China had other plans! The government’s new stimulus package is making waves, sparking optimism that it could reignite economic growth. But is it really a game-changer? From where I stand, it feels like déjà vu:? lower interest rates ??,? easier loan access ??, and?? measures to boost the stock market ?? Sound familiar? At least they didn’t make it illegal to sell stocks this time. The fundamental issues facing China’s economy—like the shaky property market and sluggish consumer demand—aren’t going to be fixed by more credit and a higher stock market. Until the government directly addresses these issues, I’ll remain skeptical. What do you think? Is this the first step towards a larger turnaround or just another quick fix? ?? For more insights on what happened in the market this week, check the rest of the fireside charts here: https://lnkd.in/e5pngJ-r #ChinaEconomy #Stimulus #MarketUpdate #InvestmentInsights #GlobalMarkets? ?