Beacon Economics LLC

Who should we credit for Trump’s big win? Jerome Powell of course. The red wave that swept Donald Trump to a second term took most everybody by surprise. Yet a cursory look at the data shows us that the Democrats never stood a chance—not because of their platform, but because of prevailing social narratives about the U.S. economy. When consumer sentiment falls over the course of an administration, the incumbent party is almost certain to lose. Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's new commentary looks at the last 16 presidential elections, 1964-2024, and finds that this pattern is remarkably clear. The reason for today's peeved consumer?is of course the 2021-2023 bout of inflation, which was, in turn, caused by the Federal Reserve's $5 trillion in quantitative easing. How ironic that President-Elect Trump has made no effort to hide his disdain for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—the man who inadvertently helped him reclaim the Presidency!

"California’s economy is strong, but some of November’s propositions could do more harm than good. Policies like raising the minimum wage and expanding rent control often backfire, leading to higher unemployment and housing shortages." Excerpted from Research Manager Niree Kodaverdian, Ph.D. new op-ed in the San Francisco Business Times.

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg delivered a new economic outlook for the nation, state, and Placer County at Placer Valley 2024. Watch the video for a look at what's coming down the pike.

Some of the propositions on California's November ballot are well-intentioned, but add up to bad economics. See our latest outlook for the state, including a drill down into Props 32, 33, and 36. https://lnkd.in/gjM8PXWR

See the new op-ed by Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg and Research Manager Niree Kodaverdian, Ph.D. about the state's minimum wage effects in today's The Mercury News.

What's next for California's economy? Christopher Thornberg talks to The San Francisco Experience podcast about the outlook for the state's labor markets, immigration, and housing market. The discussion also dives into the effects of California's recent minimum wage hikes. ?https://lnkd.in/gE3jKWFq

Gas taxes have long funded California's state and local transportation needs. Electric vehicle owners don't contribute to that pot. What does it mean for our roads and highways? Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg weighed in with The Sacramento Bee.

In spite of higher unemployment, an enormous budget deficit, and a serious labor shortage, California’s economy is still growing, just at a slower-than-typical rate. The slowdown is being driven by a number of unforced fiscal errors and poor policy choices by state leaders over the past decade. See our new Beacon Outlook California for more.

Listen to Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's conversation with Jot Condie of the California Restaurant Association about our new research on the state's minimum wage. The impact of repeated wage hikes is starting to show and teen workers are taking the hit. Wage floor policies are well-intended, but there is strong empirical evidence (including emerging evidence) that they do harm to vulnerable groups and are ineffective in either reducing poverty or transferring wealth from high to lower income residents. Certainly enough evidence that an open, objective debate should be happening - and before California raises the wage again.

A sudden chill has hit global equity markets.?Is the panic real, or needless??Christopher Thornberg's new commentary looks at WHY the U.S. unemployment rate is rising... and it's not because of a weakening economy.