J. Safra Sarasin

Is silver the next one to shine? With gold’s strong performance over the past two years, investors are closely watching the gold-silver ratio as a potential signal for #silver to catch up with #gold. But is this a meaningful indicator? In the latest #CrossAssetWeekly, we also revisit the German elections. What will it take for Friedrich Merz, the likely new chancellor, to implement his plan to increase defence spending? A sizeable fiscal stimulus in #Germany becomes more likely. Read more in the full publication: https://lnkd.in/eSQ6wSs7

Do #climate change strategies still matter in the Trump 2.0 era? ? With many decarbonisation technologies already proving cost competitive even without subsidies, the climate policy rollback in the #US may be a short setback for climate change investments, rather than a major roadblock.? ? Our view is that companies that help their business customers cut energy costs and carbon emissions will remain well positioned in the long-term. ? Read our latest expert view for the full story: https://lnkd.in/eHFsWadF ? Barbara Janosi #assetmanagement?

President Trump keeps an eye on Europe Tariffs in the US, and likely elsewhere, are set to rise after 1 April, possibly to post-war highs. Combined with persistent uncertainty over trade policy, this will weigh on European and global growth while driving up prices. Europe may offer some concessions but is unlikely to accept reciprocal tariffs without retaliation. In the latest #CrossAssetWeekly, we examine soon-voting Germany, which runs a large trade surplus with the US and has underspent on defence. Read more in the full publication: https://lnkd.in/eq4nSz5n #Germany #tariffs #US

From outlook to action: what is on our radar for 2025? In recent weeks, we have hosted our annual Outlook events across key regions, bringing together investors and industry experts to discuss the forces shaping global financial markets. As markets evolve, navigating uncertainty requires vigilance, adaptability and innovation. Which themes should catch investors' attention? Structural shifts include new political allegiances, evolving monetary policies, supply chains reorientation, technological transformation, and a continued consumer focus on well-being. Watch our latest video with our senior management and experts, and stay tuned for upcoming insights on our website: https://lnkd.in/ewHYhaYT #macroeconomics #equities #commodities #inflation Daniel Belfer, CFA, Oliver Cartade, Wolf von Rotberg, George Cotton, Kaisa Paavilainen, CFA, Philipp B?rtschi

What's next for Germany? Germany’s upcoming elections on 23 February will likely lead to a CDU/CSU-led coalition either with the SPD or with the SPD and the Greens. The need to form a coalition will limit the scope for substantial policy changes such as lowering taxes, deregulation, and stricter immigration policies. CDU/CSU is likely open to modifying the debt brake to increase fiscal spending, primarily for defense and infrastructure. Several central banks have recently published estimates for the neutral policy rate for their respective economies. These estimates are important in order to better calibrate monetary policy. Broadly speaking, the estimated neutral rate ranges have generally moved up a bit. Finally, we expect the Fed to halt the balance sheet runoff for US Treasuries by the middle of this year. Read more in the full Cross-Asset Weekly publication: https://lnkd.in/eybZqNXS #Germany #CrossAssetWeekly #US #monetarypolicy #macroeconomics

Can #stewardship drive change in asset management? ? Asset management isn’t just about selecting stocks, it’s about shaping outcomes as we recognise opportunities to drive progress on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) front as well as financial performance. ? Our panel of experts in Zurich has shared how engagement works, what it aims to achieve and their success stories with our investee companies. ? Find their insights in our latest article:?https://lnkd.in/euiHm3GW Julia Wittenburg Christoph Lang, CFA Jean-Charles Belvo, CFA #assetmanagement

US tariffs and FX: turbulence ahead? ? Trump’s 25%?tariff on steel and aluminum imports is shaking FX markets, with targeted currencies often coming under pressure – but the extent of the devaluation will depend on US policy shifts, trade retaliation and broader market dynamics. Could FX adjustments cushion the blow for US consumers, or will escalating tensions drive further volatility??? ? Find out more in our monthly FX Atlas: https://lnkd.in/eXib7Mwb ? #FX #Tariffs #TradeWars #AssetManagement?

Tariffs were expected, but their timing, breadth, and scope surprised Uncertainty about US policymaking over tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports is likely to have an effect on economic growth in the US. Our base scenario assumes that US growth would stay around its trend rate this year. Now we only expect one further Fed rate cut this year in the fourth quarter. We increased our gold price forecast and tend to prefer European over US equities, value over growth, defensives over cyclicals and upgrade utilities to “most preferred”. Read more on our monthly macro and strategy forecast update in the full Cross-Asset Weekly publication: https://lnkd.in/etwNnhSU #CrossAssetWeekly #tariffs #US #gold

We are excited to announce that our Senior Sustainable Investment Analyst, Katya Wisniewski, CFA, has joined the Klimastiftung Schweiz's advisory board. She was warmly welcomed by Advisory board chair Isabel Müller at the first meeting of the year. Since 2008, Klimastiftung Schweiz (Swiss Climate Foundation) has aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost energy efficiency in Switzerland and Liechtenstein by helping SMEs develop climate-friendly products and technologies. As a founding member, Bank J. Safra Sarasin remains committed to sustainability and responsible investing – aligning with the foundation's mission of fostering climate innovation and a greener future. #BankJSafraSarasin #sustainability #ClimateAction #energytransition

Is the rise of China's low-cost AI a threat for #techstocks? It may not be the case. As AI gets more accessible and efficient, its take-up will soar. This, in turn, could spur a fresh wave of investments and create new opportunities, especially in software and inference technologies. ? Get all the details in our latest expert view: https://lnkd.in/eTbgNZZR ? #AI #assetmanagement Dr. Tomasz Godziek Huseyin Turan, CFA, CAIA Joran Mambir, CFA