Atmospheric G2

#Europe: Latest EC weekly now stuck in a +ve #NAO grinder through mid-#January. What could #disrupt that #pattern? https://lnkd.in/dMZ444Tv. The persistence of +NAO regimes, with higher pressure over the North #Atlantic into #Europe and lower pressure towards Greenland, seems quite in line with the latest #seasonal #projections. A stronger pulse of the MJO into phases 6-7 later in #December as suggested by GFS guidance, could stir things up. Atmospheric G2 is your one shop stop for #weather when it comes to #trading. Our clients can access a range of products supporting their #decision-making processes, beside being granted access to #meteorologists, including Olivia Birch, Rhian Pearson, Edward Vallee, James Caron and me. Feel free to reach out to us or visit: AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #energyprice #heatingdemand #energydemand #winter #warm #cold #energytrading #commoditytrading #gas #power #renewables #hydro #wind #solar #weatherforecasting

Higher #risks of #cold through C-SW #mainland #Europe week 50 at the emergence of a North #Atlantic ridge: https://lnkd.in/dVaAwvBt. Despite the slightly +ve lean of the #NAO into week 50, N Atlc ridging may get in the way and, with potentially lower pressure over C-S Europe, drive colder airmasses into the continent. Worth noticing that this #cooling trend into week 50 continued from yesterday (https://lnkd.in/dtW5iKyw). Atmospheric G2 solutions include commentary and discussions on the latest #forecasts and risks, so clients can make informed #decisions when entering the #market. Reach out to myself or my colleagues Rhian Pearson, Olivia Birch, Edward Vallee, James Caron to see how we can help your #trading business from #regional to #global level. AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #traders #energyprice #energytrading #commoditytrading #heating #energydemand #heatingdemand #winter #temperatures #weatherforecasting

Better clustered GFS ENS resolves a #warmer week 49 for #Europe than #cold-leaning EC ENS: https://lnkd.in/eCFsWhJ5. GFS is more keen on stronger, mild W’ly #Atlantic flows returning next week, making also for a #wetter and #windier solution compared to EC ENS. The GFS milder pattern also ties in better with the transition to +NAOs next week. Atmospheric G2 clients have a complete toolbox helping them make informed #decisions when it comes to #trading. This includes blogs and blurbs that my colleagues Rhian Pearson, Olivia Birch, Edward Vallee, James Caron and I compile, analyzing the latest #weather #forecasts. Reach out for more info, or visit: AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #energytrading #energyprice #energydemand #power #gas #renewables #hydro #wind #hydropower #windpower #winter #heatingdemand #weatherforecasting

00z EC OP as well as its 12z-1 run resolve #cold #risks across #Europe next week: https://lnkd.in/dTUAnSwk. Those risks are associated with the development of a spell of N’ly #winds between a trough and a transient ridge moving through C-N Europe next week. Does this #scenario have any support in any #ensemble #clusters? We discuss this in our blogs and blurbs at Atmospheric G2 and guide our clients through #weather #forecasts and risks associated with alternative #patterns. If you like, my colleagues Olivia Birch, Rhian Pearson, Edward Vallee, James Caron and I are here for any questions or inquiries. AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #trading #energy #energyprice #energytrading #commoditytrading #riskmanagement #heating #cold #heatingdemand #temperatures #weatherforecasting #winter

#Europe: +ve #NAO through much of #December per the latest EC46 run, with higher pressure more dominant from the W, keeps #colder air SE. https://lnkd.in/dnseyASZ The latest EC weekly run backed off from the extremely #warm #temperatures offered yesterday, but still trends NAO+ by next week, more similarly to GFS and GEM, than EC ENS. Through the sub-#seasonal timeframe, the latest EC weekly keeps its #warm anomalies NE, #cold SE, with then colder #risks for the mainland especially into the new year. In the article, we also discuss #renewables! Subscribe to Atmospheric G2 blogs to read our latest articles and commentary on #weather impacting the #markets, as we head towards this interesting #winter season. And now thanks to our blurbs, there are even more contents available more timely to our clients. If you would like to trial our solutions, reach out to Olivia Birch, Rhian Pearson, Edward Vallee, James Caron, or myself. AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #trading #energymarkets #power #cold #heating #gas #gastrading #energyprice #commoditytrading #hydro #hydropower #wind #windpower #solar #solarpower #weatherforecasting

We've recently emerged from winter webinar and European tour season, where we've spoken, virtually or in person, to hundreds of clients and prospects about the upcoming winter. Two of the more interesting takeaways that we hope we successfully conveyed are (1) while winters are getting warmer overall, we are not seeing a decrease in the frequency of extreme cold spells and (2) La Nina winters typically have colder risks early in the winter (valid for N America, Europe, and NE Asia). Regarding the second point above, the recent early cold/snow across Europe and the impending cold/snow across the US is not a surprise. The first point is perhaps more interesting - the idea that there is no downtrend in the frequency of extreme winter cold spells, even though winters as a whole continue to warm. The attached graphics illustrate this idea, using the frequency of daily CONUS gas-weighted heating degree days (GWHDD) exceeding 40 and "cold days" in London (minimum temperatures below -4 C). For the CONUS graphic, the most amazing takeaway is that there was a stretch of four straight 40+ GWHDD days last January, which hadn't happened in 27 years, *in the middle of the warmest winter on record*. This is a perfect microcosm of the idea that we are still having just as many extreme cold spells, but that the warmer periods surrounding them are even warmer than they used to be. For the London graphic, note that extremely cold days are more likely during lower-end La Nina events like this winter, and are focused earlier in the winter. Certainly the gas and power markets have taken notice of the early cold this winter with increased volatility...please continue to monitor AG2 products and forecasts to stay on top of things as we turn the calendar to December!

Following the #warm plume of this #weekend, EC and GFS split into weeks 48-49 as for #European #patterns: https://lnkd.in/du2qv9Qx. https://lnkd.in/dJSKbtmH. EC gets #cold once again, while GFS stays #mild. OP models are just more extreme versions of the ENS means, but within the ENS themselves we find opposing solutions, nevertheless. Where's our #preference? Let's look at #clusters and #AI guidance. Atmospheric G2 offers clients tools and support to extract the most out of #weather #forecasts. If you would like to trial or subscribe to our services, please reach out to me or my colleagues Rhian Pearson, Olivia Birch, Edward Vallee, James Caron. AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #trading #energyprice #energymarkets #energytrading #commoditytrading #riskmanagement #temperatures #heating #power #gas #winter #weatherforecasting

After a #dry month (except for parts of #Iberia and #Scandinavia), this week is seeing a #wetter spell across much of #Europe: https://lnkd.in/djgWkE4C. How much relief to the drier #soils though? We find those across the far NW, but also more widely across C-E sectors of Europe. Things are #forecast to shift back drier through next week (week 48). What to expect this #December in terms of #hydro then? Whether you are #trading #gas, #power, #renewables, #agriculture or other #commodities, and #weather affects your #market, then Atmospheric G2 has you covered. You can trial our solutions by getting in touch with myself or my colleagues Rhian Pearson, Olivia Birch, James Caron, Edward Vallee. AG2 website: https://lnkd.in/drMsBQCG AG2 on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dnKKJNKR AG2 on X: https://lnkd.in/dMGefV4p #energy #energytrading #energyprices #commoditytrading #risk #hydropower #precipitation #drought #weatherforecasting #winter