Anticipate Public Affairs

Early exit polls are showing Democracy as the top motivating issue for voters. It's still early in the evening, and that may change. But it's also not surprising. Earlier today, Anticipate Public Affairs sent out this look at voter opinion and democracy headed into the election. It's worth a read. We hope it's helpful. https://conta.cc/4hz8YjK

With only weeks?until government funding runs out, Speaker Mike Johnson announced he’ll?attach the SAVE Act?to the funding bill when the House returns to session next week. MAGA Republicans have?demanded?it be attached or they will shut down the government. The bill would disenfranchise millions?of eligible American citizen voters. Even a drivers license would not be enough?documentation for most Americans to register to vote. It’s also based on misinformation about our elections and about immigration.? With this in mind, we thought it’d be helpful to take a closer look at the bill. Learn more about the motivation's behind the bill's introduction, the specific policy in the legislation, the myths versus facts, and how to message and talk about it: https://conta.cc/4gfIiUs

The Supreme Court's decision to give Presidents immunity once again puts the state of our democracy at the top of the politcal conversation. Polling over the last several months (and years) tells us democracy is a top issue for voters. A FOX News poll last month was one of the latest to affirm this, ranking democracy number one as “extremely concerning." To effectively talk about democracy, it’s important to understand that it means different things to different people. Looking at the?crosstabs, the Fox poll finds that 5 in 10 Americans say threats to democracy could mean “The end of certain rights and freedoms,” while 3 in 10 say “the ends of free and fair elections,” while 15% say both. This makes the case for tying democracy to other issues to make it personal and tangible to people’s lives. For instance, a failure to protect reproductive freedom is a failure of democracy. A?poll released by Public Wise?last month also finds protecting democracy a leading issue. It asks?specifically what democracy means to voters. Concerns over voting restrictions, election denial, money in politics, and threats to poll workers all rank high. Democrats?overall list Donald Trump, election denial, voter restrictions, and money in politics as their top concerns. Black voters?list election denial and voter restrictions as top issues, which makes the case that it would benefit Democrats to highlight their support for legislation protecting the freedom to vote and ensuring partisans cannot overturn the will of the people.?? Undecided voters?rank money in politics as their top concern. Voter fraud and illegal voting were second and third. Election denial and voting restrictions also rank high. Young voters,?similar to undecideds, rank money in politics at the top. It’s tied with fraud. Election denial, voter restrictions and illegal voting also rank near the top. It appears critical?that Democrats lean heavily into their position to reduce the influence of money in politics, as it's the only concern that ranks ahead of voter fraud among key undecided and young voters, two key groups. Democrats have positions?on democracy that motivate their base and persuade swing voters. Virtually all of these elements are popular, but knowing your audience and targeting your message matters. It's also true that Democrats don’t alway have the sizable advantage?we'd expect.?The effects of misinformation are real and voters often don’t know which party to trust. Ceeding this ground to Republicans is costly.? There are more details and more polling to dive into than we have time and space for in this post. I'd love to alk more about when we have a moment.? In the meantime, if you're aware of a project that you think would benefit from our skills or experience at?Anticipate Public Affairs, please pass it along. Adam??

Last month, Mike Johnson stood with Donald Trump and repeated lies about non-citizen voting and our elections. It was widly reported that he was attempting to improve his standing with MAGA and save his job as Speaker. The truth is?it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. States have secure systems in place to prevent them from voting. Those who violate the law face severe penalties. And frankly, it just isn’t happening.? It appears Johnson may hold a vote?in the House on non-citizens voting, or even call up the full Republican anti-voter bill. We thought it’d be helpful to give you a quick overview of what the full Republican bill does. The MAGA ACE Act, is based on misinformation. It is designed for and by election deniers. ? Restrictions on the Freedom to Vote ? ? Limits the options for registering to vote. ? Restricts mail-in voting and people’s freedom to choose who can assist them when returning their ballot.?? ? Establishes a “national model” for restrictive voting in Washington, DC: removing pro-voter policies and replacing them with restrictions ? Protects extreme gerrymandering Burdens on Election Officials ? Restricts funding to election officials to maintain accurate and updated voter roles, modernize election systems, and administer secure, accessible elections. ? Grants partisan poll observers unfettered access without means to allow election officials to account for safety concerns. Expansion of Dark Money ? Loosens disclosure requirements to allow more dark money ? Prohibits rules requiring transparency for shareholders regarding corporate political spending. ? Repeals spending limits for political party coordination with candidates. Democrats offer a sharp contrast.?The Freedom to Vote Act and John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act work together to?protect our democracy from today's threats and strengthen it to ensure all Americans' voices are heard and voters are counted.? The bills protect the freedom to vote, ban gerrymandering, and end dark money. They support local election administrators so they can modernize our election systems and run safe and accessible elections without facing threats or harassment. We hope this is useful?for if and when Speaker Johnson brings an anti-voter bill to the floor. We’re happy to provide further details. Please feel free to reach out. In the meantime, let us know if you’re aware of people or projects who could use our expertise and experience at Anticipate Public Affairs Have a great day

Quarterly FEC reports will be out soon. That means the usual scrutiny and analysis of fundraising, donors, and donations. It often includes the role played by small-dollar donors. The surge of small dollar donations in the last decade has increased political participation, brought new voices to the table, and helped create a more diverse pool of candidates in some communities.? Occasionally, some political pundits have made false claims about these modest contributions, in some cases to stall progress on small-donor based campaign finance reforms. We thought it would be helpful to provide a closer look at these contributions to show the benefits and dispel any myths. A group of small donor experts and advocates conducted a recent analysis. We were fortunate to participate in this research on behalf of a client. The analysis found: #1 Small donations disproportionately flow to congressional battleground districts #2 Small donors’ ideology is not different from other donors #3 Small donors better reflect the nation's?demographics #4 Elections with an expanded role for small-dollar donations show positive impacts #5 There are more credible reasons for political polarization, including billions of dollars pumped into politics by mega donors Reach out to me if you're interested in learning more information about this reseach. I'd love to share it and talk more about the impact small dollar donors have on our politics and the striking contrast with corporate and mega donors.? In the meantime, let us know if you’re aware of people or projects who could use our expertise and experience at Anticipate Public Affairs.?? Have a great day, Adam?

Last week, Democrats introduced the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancment Act. With threats to democracy consitently polling as a top concern for voters, there's a strong contrast between MAGA and Democrats. For the last three Congresses in a row, Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi, and now Leader Jeffries, have now put the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Voting Rights Act at the top of the Democratic agenda. We thought a short recap of the bills might be useful. The Threat to Democracy Our democracy is designed to give everyone a voice, but voter restrictions, Big Money corruption, and the rise of MAGA are hurting Americans. MAGA has embraced extremism, misinformation, and election denial. It’s taken over the Republican Party. Regular Americans, who want and need their voice to be heard in our government, are paying the price. Protecting our Democracy Without the benefit of reforms, a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress can only go so far in stopping and reversing MAGA’s efforts. The Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Voting Rights Act provide the tools to protect and strengthen our democracy. Together, they ensure our leaders are accountable and that all Americans have an equal right to vote in a safe, accessible, transparent election: *Protecting the Freedom to Vote *Modernizing our elections system and supporting election workers? *Banning Dark Money *Ending extreme gerrymandering HOW THE BILLS WORK The Freedom to Vote Act - combats current efforts to diminish the voice of the people. John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act - helps prevent future threats. *Set national standards to protect access to voting, protect voters against intimidation, and restore the power of the Voting Rights Act to prevent new discriminatory laws. *Provide local election officials with support to modernize election systems, keep the voting rolls accurate, and run elections safely and securely, free of harassment. *Crack down on super PACS that are skirting the law and bring transparency to dark money so regular people aren’t drowned out and voters can see who is trying to influence our elections. *End extreme gerrymandering so voters can pick their representatives instead of the other way around. These bills are essential as MAGA continues to spread misinformation about our elections, growing an army of election deniers and waging an assault on our democracy and the rule of law. The bills will ensure that the will of the voters decides elections, hold our elected officials accountable, and make our democracy work for everyone. I hope this is helpful. Defending democracy is good policy and good politics. I'd love to talk more about how candidiates can talk about and run on democracy issues. As always, let us know if you’re aware of people or projects who could use our expertise and experience at Anticipate Public Affairs.???

January 6, President Biden’s Valley Forge speech, and Donald Trump’s court case and wins in IA and NH have put democracy top of mind and have us reflecting on whether they matter to voters in 2024. The answer is yes.? We pulled together some recent polling that helps tell the story. First, here’s a quick look at what voters thought in the 2022 midterms, when we had a similar debate. *NBC:?The top issue for voters was “threats to democracy” in?Oct,?Sept,?Aug, 2022 *Reuters: In?September 2022,?58% of voters said the MAGA movement is a threat to democracy *States United: An?analysis?found election denial cost statewide Republican candidates 2.3 to 3.7 percentage points Now it’s 2024. What do Voters Think? *USA Today?on NH voters (Jan 2024): Democracy the top issue for Dems and independents? *Reuters/Ipsos?(Jan 2024): Most voters won’t vote for Trump if he’s convicted? *AP?(Dec 2023): Americans agree that 2024 will be pivotal for Democracy? *NBC?(Nov 2023): Democracy, abortion are top priorities for single-issue voters *New York Times?(Nov 2023): Democracy is an extremely important factor in people’s voting What about January 6? Misinformation has softened some Republicans views, but most Americans have not fallen for it. CBS?(Jan 2024):?Independents views on January 6:? 86% disapprove of actions of those who entered the Capitol 70% disagree that it an act of patriotism What to Consider Democracy is very much a top concern of voters. Democrats should lean into the issue in 2024. It mobilizes the base. It persuades swing voters. Points for further consideration: Democracy is often a jump ball for many voters, particularly cynical voters who tend to blame both sides. Some Republicans see Democrats as the threat. Democrats don’t alway have the advantage we'd expect and Republicans are propagating misinformation. Ceeding this ground to Republicans is costly.?? Voters consider a number of different elements when they think about democracy. Voting rights, election denial, and money in politics are just some of the areas voters consider democracy. Determining which elements are most relevant to which demographics is vital.?? Voters often think about democracy in terms of whether their voice is heard by elected officials and how that affects other issues important to their lives. Connecting the individual elements of democracy to other tangible and personal issues is an important part of the message. There’s a lot more to dive into and a lot more polling to discuss. I'd love to talk with you more about voter opinions of democracy, how to talk about it and run on it, and about the policy solutions to protect it. ? As always, if you're aware of a project you think would benefit from our skills or experience at Anticipate Public Affairs, please pass it along. Thank you and have a great 2024!

It's been a great first couple of weeks at Anticipate Public Affairs. I've been fortunate to have the opportunity to help Defend The Vote endorse three great candidates for Senate. We're looking forward to the weeks and months to come, as we have much more planned during this consequential moment in our history. Please remember to reach out if we can help you.