Altair Advisers

Markets remain vulnerable to an intensifying trade war, particularly if retaliatory tariffs scheduled to take effect April 1st are sustained for a lengthy period. Tariff turmoil caused the S&P 500’s recent 10% pullback but has yet to cause abnormal volatility. On average, a correction averaging 10%-14% occurs about once a year. ?Click the link below to read more of our views in today's edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/gdKBnEsK

Stiff new tariffs have added further uncertainty to an evolving global economic outlook. A trade war will be more consequential for the economy and markets the longer it endures. We believe it is unlikely to be long-lasting because all sides have major incentives to negotiate given the potentially negative impacts. President Trump already has shown a willingness to delay or back off on tariff threats. Click the link below to read more of our views in today's edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/gYGcHyMS

Tariffs’ coming impact on the U.S. and global economies is particularly hard to forecast given that some are suspended, others have not yet been fully detailed, and all are subject to negotiations. We continue to believe that the president may be willing to endure some temporary pain to achieve his objectives but will try to avoid a long-term trade war with harsh tariffs given their economic and market risks. Click the link below to read more about our views in this week's edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/g88QVmjr

The new tariffs will have increasingly negative consequences on the economy the longer they are kept in place. We believe the president will negotiate to reduce the tariffs and avoid a long-term trade war, however, given their potential impact on the economy and markets. Some prices will escalate but we do not expect to see a material increase in inflation in the near term. Click the link below to read all of our views in today's edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/gkKCVy6d

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With the Trump presidency off to a running start, we take a look at the prospective changes and the implications for markets in the Altair Insight quarterly market review. We also discuss the?still-strong economy, a potential trade war, paused progress on inflation and interest-rate cuts, and the shifting global outlook. Click our website link below to review this edition of the Altair Insight | 4Q 2024. https://lnkd.in/g-ipRMTk

Altair Advisers extends our thoughts and prayers to all the individuals, families, and first responders affected by the devasting wildfires in Los Angeles. Our hearts go out to our employees, clients, business partners, and the broader community impacted by the scale of this disaster. Altair has donated to the American Red Cross Los Angeles Region and is committed to supporting relief efforts in every way we can.

Core inflation shows signs of slowing: Headline inflation inched higher last month but core elements eased, suggesting renewed progress in the downward move toward the 2% target. The Consumer Price Index edged up to 2.9% from 2.7%, a third straight rise since reaching a 3? year low of 2.4% in October.?Click the link below to read more of today's edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/gGdcBCJx

Large caps top market with big annual gains again: U.S. stocks tied to the artificial intelligence boom helped pace the market to gains exceeding 20% for a second straight year in 2024. Even after a December downturn on renewed concern about inflation and interest rates, the Standard & Poor’s 500 delivered a 25% return, including dividends. Click the link below to read more in this edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/gYcrJyAD

Inflation accelerates ahead of Fed decision: The consumer price index ticked up to 2.7% in November as a result of goods inflation rising at the fastest monthly rate in 1? years. Core consumer prices – excluding food and energy – also rose at a firm pace in holding at 3.3%. The increase in goods inflation was expected and due partly to a jump in vehicle prices as drivers bought replacements for cars and trucks damaged in hurricanes. While inflation remains sticky, markets expect the Federal Reserve to proceed with another interest-rate cut this Wednesday. Read more in this edition of Market Monitor. https://lnkd.in/ggYhBYUJ