All Facts Matter

Schumer Caves On Continuing Resolution Chuck Schumer stared into the abyss of a government shutdown, persuaded himself he saw Donald Trump staring back at him—and promptly moved to support the House Continuing Resolution funding the government through the remainder of FY2025. A victory for Speaker Johnson (assuming the CR passes the Senate, vote has not been held yet). A victory for Donald Trump, not only because he backed the CR but because Schumer proved he is thoroughly intimidated by Donald Trump. A defeat for Thomas Massie, who once again stands alone with his “No” vote, having accomplished little (Massie might want to rethink his tactics here). For the American people….it looks like the government will NOT shut down tomorrow. Is that a victory or is that a defeat? https://archive.ph/ciCpK

Will Merz Succeed? If Merz is unable to get the debt brake amendment through the legislature during the lame duck session, it is unclear what will happen to either the amendment or the spending package in the new legislative session. What is certain in the new legislative session is that together Die Linke and AfD are large enough to block any constitutional amendment. Even if Merz gets the debt brake amendment passed, and then the spending bill passed, it is by no means certain the spending will have the desired effects. Click to watch the full video: https://lnkd.in/gJ5EDkCj

With Debt Will Come Interest Rate Hikes If Germany’s “debt bazooka” acts as it almost certainly will, pushing up German interest rates, then yields on French and Italian debt will also rise, and indeed yields on European indebtedness as a whole will rise. Can Europe withstand an increase in the market interest rates of a percentage point or more? More precisesly, can European banks and investment funds avoid a liquidity crisis from a rapid rise in debt yields? Click to watch the full video: https://lnkd.in/gJ5EDkCj

Debt Bazooka Constitutional issues aside, however, one of the many unanswered questions swirling around the spending proposals is how strong is the market for additional German debt? What rate of interest will be needed to ensure a ready market for the new debt issuances? Click to watch the full video: https://lnkd.in/gJ5EDkCj

Now To Make The Ceasefire Happen Agreeing to the ceasefire is the first step. Now the parties must work to implement that ceasefire. There will be details to be addressed, and concerns that must be resolved. There are still a great many steps yet to take between the agreement to the ceasefire and lasting peace. Zelenskyy and Putin have thus far taken one step each. This one positive step is to be celebrated, yet the world will do well to be mindful that much work is yet to be done before this positive step can produce lasting peace. https://archive.ph/Ow59f

Putin Agrees To The Trump Ceasefire Proposal Vladimir Putin has accepted President Trump’s ceasefire proposal. ***** We agree with the propositions to stop hostilities, but we proceed from the fact that such ceasefire should be such that would lead to a permanent peace and remove the initial, original causes of the crisis. ***** This is not peace. This is not even the promise of peace. This is the hope of peace. This is two nations at war agreeing to stop and work to resolve their issues with diplomacy rather than death. It is one step, and it is only one step. It is a positive step. Vladimir Putin, Volodomy Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump should be acknowledged for taking this positive step. My prayers are that there will be more positive steps, and that this will be the pathway to lasting peace.

Putin Demands A Peace Guarantee Before A Ceasefire Russia has put the peace cart before the ceasefire horse. Russia’s fear is that Ukraine might use the 30-day respite to regroup. Russia ignores that Ukraine has the same fear and is taking the same risk regarding Russia. How does Putin consider it to be a sober and rational stance to demand that the entire path to peace be laid out before agreeing to a ceasefire that both sides may sit down to chart that path? If Putin spurns President Trump’s initiatives on peace in Ukraine now, what does he expect will happen? What does “winning” look like for Vladimir Putin after three years of attritional war and over 650,000 Russian casualties? https://archive.ph/ceYwg

With Spending Will Come Inflation Let us be clear: the German government spending up to a trillion euros over the next decade, particularly to the degree it is spent on defense procurement, is going to push up inflation at least in Germany. Click to watch the full video: https://lnkd.in/gJ5EDkCj

Factory Gate Inflation Eases, Supply Constraints Gone? The rising inflation story of January has reversed to one of easing prices and slowing inflation. Even factory gate prices are showing less inflation than they were before, and in some instances even in deflation. Have the supply constraints which framed January’s price rises suddenly evaporated? https://archive.ph/mgriw

COVID: The Facts Were ALWAYS Out There We can prevent a repeat of the COVID Pandemic Panic. We can make sure that something that evil never happens again. If we are willing to think for ourselves, to form our own conclusions, and to cultivate at every turn the courage of our convictions, neither media nor government can ever mislead the way they did with the COVID Pandemic Panic. The facts are out there. The evidence does exist. The data does matter. Get the facts. Get the evidence. Get the data. Think for yourself. Never let anyone do your thinking for you.