Agricultural Economic Insights

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Backgrounder: U.S. Inflation in 2025. After cooling through much of 2023, U.S. inflation ticked up again at the end of 2024 just as tariff concerns re-entered the picture. With inflationary pressures mounting and the Fed’s 2% target still out of reach, attention is shifting to how policymakers will interpret and respond to these new signals. David explores the factors driving today’s inflation narrative and what they could mean for interest rates in 2025. https://lnkd.in/gH8GK-wj

Fifth Year of Global Acreage Expansion. Global harvested acreage increased again in 2024, marking the fifth straight year of expansion. This was driven largely by South America and South Asia. While the pace has slowed, the cumulative gains rival previous multi-year surges, underscoring the role of economics in land use shifts. David Widmar unpacks the regional trends and what they signal for the future of global crop production. https://lnkd.in/gVcFai_Z

Stagflation on the Mind? In this What We Are Thinking memo from our archive, Brent explores past stagflation periods, the role of supply shocks, and why today’s economic conditions could set the stage for a similar scenario. Read it to learn how stagflation could impact the farm economy and broader markets. https://lnkd.in/gUSpWUT3

Farm Machinery Inflation: A Decade Worth of Hikes in Just 4 Years. Farm machinery prices have surged in recent years, with 2021-2024 price hikes surpassing the previous decade’s increases. While price growth has slowed in 2025, history suggests relief is unlikely, as even past agricultural downturns didn’t bring machinery prices down. Read David’s complete analysis for the breakdown of rapid inflation in farm machinery and what it means for producers. https://lnkd.in/eGzNKqbh

Join us this Thursday, March 20 at 9:30 a.m., as we welcome Agricultural Economic Insights' David Widmar to recap the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest interest rate decision, their updated long-run expectations, and other interest rate market activity. Register today ?? https://bit.ly/41DCaQI.

Despite High Prices, Egg Consumption and Spending Strong. Even with record-high egg prices in early 2025, U.S. consumers continue to buy and eat eggs at historically strong levels. Inflation-adjusted spending on eggs doubled since 2021, reaching levels not seen since the 1980s, despite per capita consumption declining slightly from its 2019 peak. This week, David Widmar explores why demand for eggs remains resilient even in the face of high prices. https://lnkd.in/g-Cn9FGN

2025 Crop Insurance Safety Net - When Outcomes Aren’t Average. While average conditions provide a baseline, extreme yield scenarios can significantly shift crop profitability and financial risk. High and low yields impact corn and soybean margins and highlight farmers' record-high uninsured exposure, even with 80% revenue coverage. Read David’s full article to understand how different outcomes could affect 2025 farm finances. https://lnkd.in/gGrFhbkB

Crop Insurance Safety Net Still Low in 2025. With spring crop insurance prices set at $4.70 for corn and $10.54 for soybeans, the safety net for producers remains historically low. Declining contribution margins and rising costs have left crop insurance covering only 81% of corn and 84% of soybean variable expenses and cash rents, some of the lowest levels on record. Read David Widmar’s full analysis to see what this means for farm financial planning in 2025. https://lnkd.in/gGu42y4T

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