Agricultural Economic Insights

ARC, PLC, and Potential Payments – Updated Details. The ARC and PLC programs can be complicated, especially given the +18 month timeline through the program election, growing season, marketing year, and final payment. The mechanics have been largely the same over the last decade, but the underlying commodity prices have resulted in program benchmarks that significantly shift the likelihood of potential payments. For the ARC program, yields required to trigger an ARC payment will dramatically swing from a low of around 50% to more than 95%. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gHF7aTAY

When Might ARC and PLC Payments Kick In? While program mechanics have been fairly consistent over the last decade, prevailing farm economic conditions – and the lags between observed conditions and program calculations – result in a program that can perform very differently in just a few years. Despite the large economic losses for corn and soybean producers in 2023 and 2024, the potential for widespread ARC-CO and PLC payments won’t happen in the 2024 calendar year. Read more: https://lnkd.in/giVhNCZN

4 Maps - A Preview of 2023 ARC-CO Payments. Later this fall (in early October), producers will be eligible for potential ARC and PLC payments for 2023 production. It’s worth looking at where payments might be made. While widespread payments are unlikely, producers who want to forecast their farm-specific condition should carefully review their base acreage and 2023 elections. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gJBHqB_k

Will Crop Insurance Subsidies Eclipse Direct Farm Payments? As crop insurance program adoption increased and program details evolved, the price tag has risen substantially. In 2024, the upward trend in crop insurance subsidies and the drop in ARC and PLC program payments resulted in a unique situation: crop insurance subsidies nearly exceeded direct payments. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gMi6vS5Y

Join our discussion with Agricultural Economic Insights's David Widmar as we recap the Federal Reserve Open Market (FOMC)'s latest interest rate decision, their updated long-run expectations, and other interest rate market activity. To register ?? https://bit.ly/3T9xz41.

Trendlines – and Trend Yields – Are Far from Perfect. With more data comes more confidence, right? Use caution and recognize that a range of expectations is possible. We should also recognize that the trendline has noise and is subjective. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/g9sFCJPZ

Dairy Consumption - Yogurt & Cheese versus Ice Cream & Milk. Americans drank 250 pounds of milk per person per year in 1975, but consumption steadily declined in the following decades, reaching just 130 pounds in 2022. What have been the trends for dairy consumption overall? Yogurt and cheese have been the winners, while milk and ice cream have struggled. However, different activity measures could lead to different conclusions about the magnitude of shifts. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gFspNuE3

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