Applied Economics Clinic

On behalf of the Mountain Association (MA), Kentuckians For The Commonwealth (KFTC), Kentucky Solar Energy Society (KYSES), and Metropolitan Housing Coalition (MHC) (collectively, the “Joint Intervenors”), Senior Researcher Joshua C. and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD prepared a white paper that sets out best practices for IRP modeling and reporting, and assesses the Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities Company (KU) (collectively, LG&E-KU) 2024 IRP filed on October 18, 2024 in Case No. 2024-00326 based on those criteria. AEC’s best practices are organized into five categories: (A) Demand-Side Analysis; (B) Supply-Side Analysis; (C) Modeling Structure; (D) Selection of Recommended Plan; and (E) Stakeholder Input. Through its best-practices assessment, AEC finds that LG&E-KU’s 2024 IRP is missing critical components and includes errors in forecasting key assumptions, resulting in an overall flawed least-cost resource plan selection. LG&E-KU’s failure to follow IRP best practices results in resource decisions that are not properly informed (or justified) by comprehensive IRP modeling, leading to possible adverse effects on ratepayers. In particular, the flawed IRP findings may result in support for uneconomic resource additions in near-term CPCN applications. https://bit.ly/43DtLhv

On behalf of Appalachian Citizens Law Ctr, Kentuckians For The Commonwealth, and Mountain Association, Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, submitted direct testimony before the Kentucky Public Service Commission (“the Commission”) in response to the 2024 request for approval of Certificates of Public Convenience and Need (“CPCN”) filed by East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. (“EKPC”). In her testimony, Dr. Stanton assesses EKPC’s: annual and peak customer demand forecasts, with a focus on its Winter Peak; alternative supply resource options; modeling and resource selection methods; and rate impacts. Dr. Stanton’s review finds that EKPC has not adequately supported its winter peak demand forecast, failed to provide the modeling and analytical support needed to justify the CCGT, and failed to demonstrate that the CCGT is superior to other available alternatives such as battery storage, demand response, or peaking resources. https://bit.ly/4i9vJug

On behalf of the Massachusetts Clean Peak Coalition, Researcher Jordan Burt, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Researcher Tanya Stasio, PhD, Research Assistant Lila McNamee, and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, prepared a report that summarizes the negative health impacts of fossil fuel-fired emissions on communities living near the Pittsfield Generating Facility. The report identifies three key takeaways: 1.????As long as the Pittsfield Generating Facility is in operation, it has the potential to produce much higher greenhouse gas emissions and co-pollutants in any given year. 2.????EJ and other vulnerable communities live in close proximity to the Pittsfield Generating Facility, increasing vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. 3.????Replacing the fossil fuel-fired plant with clean energy resources can reduce emissions in the area. https://bit.ly/4gvLAlu

On behalf of Greater Grove Hall Main Streets (GGHMS), Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Assistant Researcher Sumera Patel, and Senior Researcher Joshua C. prepared an issue brief examining a set of rooftop coverage alternatives (i.e., solar photovoltaic (PV), green, white, blue, and brown roofs) aimed at addressing the unique energy and environmental challenges faced by Boston’s Grove Hall community, highlighting the potential for a systems approach encompassing each rooftop coverage alternative to enhance energy efficiency and alleviate energy burden in a region characterized by urban heat island effects and a high share of environmental justice (EJ) populations. The issue brief provides actional recommendations for GGHMS to implement a combination of rooftop coverage alternatives to mitigate energy and environmental disparities, promote environmental resilience, and foster a healthier urban environment in Grove Hall. https://bit.ly/4h56ZCD

On behalf of A Better City Researcher Tanya Stasio, PhD, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Researcher Jordan Burt, Research Assistant Lila McNamee, and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, prepared a policy brief and accompanying background report that (1) provides a discussion of extreme heat in Massachusetts and the disproportionate impact on low-income and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) communities, (2) reviews policies to address extreme heat in the Commonwealth and across the United States, and (3) develops six recommendations for Massachusetts policymakers to address both short-term extreme heat emergency preparedness and long-term heat resiliency in the Commonwealth, supporting cooler neighborhoods, cooler buildings and homes, and cooler commutes. https://bit.ly/3ZBAd4Y

On behalf of A Better City Researcher Tanya Stasio, PhD, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Researcher Jordan Burt, Research Assistant Lila McNamee, and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, prepared a policy brief and accompanying background report that (1) provides a discussion of extreme heat in Massachusetts and the disproportionate impact on low-income and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) communities, (2) reviews policies to address extreme heat in the Commonwealth and across the United States, and (3) develops six recommendations for Massachusetts policymakers to address both short-term extreme heat emergency preparedness and long-term heat resiliency in the Commonwealth, supporting cooler neighborhoods, cooler buildings and homes, and cooler commutes. https://bit.ly/3ZBAd4Y

On behalf of the Berkshire Environmental Action Team, Researcher Jordan Burt, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Researcher Tanya Stasio, PhD, Research Assistant Lila McNamee, and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, prepared a report that reviews case studies of fossil-fuel plant conversions to clean energy resources across the country and discusses the replacement of existing peaker plants in Massachusetts to achieve statewide climate goals. The report identifies three key takeaways for the Commonwealth: 1.????Fossil-fuel sites can be desirable locations for clean energy siting 2.????Reducing reliance on fossil-fuel generation can help lessen the burden of environmental and health impacts on already overburdened communities 3.????Fossil-fuel plant conversions are a tool that can be used to achieve state and local greenhouse gas emission limits. https://bit.ly/3OSriHC

On behalf of Just Transition Northwest Indiana (JTNWI), AEC assessed the retirement of Michigan City Generating Station (MCGS)—a 93-year-old coal-fired power plant located on the southern shore of Lake Michigan in Michigan City, Indiana. AEC's report?presents?the environmental and community impacts of MCGS' retirement, outlines opportunities for just and equitable redevelopment of the MCGS site, presents eight related case studies of coal plant redevelopment efforts, and makes five recommendations for a just transition for Michigan City to ensure that the communities most impacted by MCGS’ operations benefit from redevelopment. https://bit.ly/3VvA6Hb

On behalf of New Leaf Energy, Inc., Senior Researcher Joshua R. Castigliego and Assistant Researcher Sumera Patel conducted analysis estimating the net change in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from New Leaf Energy’s proposed clean energy facility on Maple Springs Road in Wareham, Massachusetts. This proposed facility will house solar photovoltaics (PV) and an energy storage system (ESS) (collectively referred to as “PV+ESS facility”) and require 32.7 acres of land to be cleared of trees to make way for its development. AEC estimated net emission savings of this proposed PV+ESS facility as the sum of “positive” CO2 emissions savings (i.e., reduced emissions) from the electric grid due to renewable energy generation and “negative” CO2 emissions (i.e., increased emissions) due to land-use conversion from forestland to grassland. Combined, these two effects result in substantial net emissions savings (i.e., reduced emissions) resulting from the proposed New Leaf Energy facility: AEC’s analysis shows that the facility’s grid emissions reductions would be roughly 4.4 times greater than its added emissions due to site development. https://bit.ly/3Vqv0Mm

This Applied Economics Clinic (AEC) white paper examines best practices of annual and peak electric demand forecasting and provides additional examples for South Carolina. AEC asserts that conventional load forecasting methods must be updated to reflect the rapid transformation of demand trends and real-word conditions. To address these concerns, AEC recommends eight best practices to ensure thorough, transparent, and accurate load forecasts: model and data transparency; emerging policies and technologies; large industrial loads; non-energy constraints; forecasting innovation; uncertainty analysis and multiple future scenarios; post-modeling adjustments; and stakeholder review. Adopting contemporary best practices in load forecasting benefits consumers, utilities and regulators with lower costs, increased reliability, and improved facilitation of state-mandated decarbonization plans. https://bit.ly/3COnOCU