Advantage Energy Partners

Natural Gas Finds Life Due to a Healthy Showing of Winter Weather 11/27/24 - Energy Update Cold for two days? Eh. Cold for two weeks? Pay attention. Prices have jumped to the $3.50 range in convincing fashion as a heavy does of sustained cold is moving over major consuming areas. The significant driver of this cold pattern is longevity. Cold matters, but LOTS of cold REALLY matters. Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands have shifted to an uptrend providing support at $2.82 and resistance at $3.53, while significantly opening the band range which is increasing volatility risk. Directional Band The upward band is still in effect but showing the aforementioned signs of slowing the steepness of the climb. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $3.18 is building on the uptrend. Tests Prices have been testing the upper band for five consecutive days. The failure to complete a test has been the driver in the climb. However, technicals indicate that the value is set up to lose some value. Breaking below the $3.18 support value will be important to keep an eye on. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are colder than seasonal. Production is consistent. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors are still real and relevant but have taken a back burner to a combination of technical factors, winter fear factors, and geopolitical factors. What’s Next? Value has increased significantly over the last few weeks and while we expect natty to retain a meaningful portion of the gains, we might settle into a $3.25 to $3.50 range while volatility catches its breath. Considering the prolonged cold in the weather forecast, we still consider price movement risk to be to the upside. Oh… HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported a withdrawal of 2 bcf compared to the expectation of a withdrawal of 2. The withdrawal was smaller than the five-year average of 30.   Today prices have decreased, currently trading at $3.24, down $0.23 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have decreased from $3.39 for a -$0.15 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have increased from $3.12 for a $0.12 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Prices Blow the Roof Off. Displays More Action Than the Tyson-Paul Fight. 11/21/24 - Energy Update Perhaps because of the threat of winter? Perhaps because geopolitical unrest is heating back up? Perhaps we’ll never know exactly why? Attribute the spike in value to what you feel most credible, but one thing is very clear: The stranglehold fundamental factors has had on prices for months just flew out the window. What does this mean going forward and what can we expect? Bollinger Band As projected last week, the Bollinger bands have shifted into an uptrend providing support at $2.49 and resistance at $3.25, while opening the band range which is increasing volatility risk. Directional Band Again, as projected last week, groundwork for an upward directional band was laid and further momentum catapulted upward. The “steepness” of this newly placed band will likely be tamed, but the message is clear. Prices are going up. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.87 has shifted to an uptrend. Tests We find ourselves in an “unexpected” active test of the upper band. The current price has surpassed the upper band two days in a row signaling the climb is not yet complete. We can expect prices to retreat when the test finishes its cycle, but early signs are signaling prices are going to find a newer home above the $3.00 range. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are seasonal. Production is consistent. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors are still real and relevant but have taken a back burner to a combination of technical factors, winter fear factors, and geopolitical factors. What’s Next? For the third time, as expected, we’re getting a reaction to winter weather sliding into the forecast. While we see weather only as part of the aforementioned three-headed monster, we have a monster on our hands nonetheless. The battle between fundamentals and technicals has begun and round one has packed more excitement than the Netflix main event. We expect prices to continue into a softer grade uptrend with significant volatility mixed in. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 5 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 5. The injection was larger than the five-year average WITHDRAWAL of 14.   Today prices have increased, currently trading at $3.43, up $0.24 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have increased from $2.79 for a $0.64 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have increased from $2.81 for a $0.62 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Prices Show Signs of Life, but Expected to Remain Rangebound for Now 11/14/24 - Energy Update Cooler weather is coming even though the forecasted temperatures are above seasonal averages. This is dealing a mixed bag as bearish fundamentals pushing prices down will naturally shift into bullish weather volatility. Fundamentals are strong enough to keep prices suppressed, but the arrival of winter weather will play mind games with trading value. While there is not a threat to push prices up on the horizon, you can bet value will climb when we get some frosty cold snaps. Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands have shifted to an early-stage uptrend providing support at $2.59 and resistance at $3.09. Directional Band Value was able to push through and sustain trading above the resistance level. This is meaningful as the shift lays groundwork for an upward directional band. While the shift is evident, the longevity of the band will be easily threatened just as the downward band was last week. Volatility is the name of the game. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.84 has shifted to an uptrend. Tests We are now in territory was haven’t trekked in over a month… trading value above the support value. This shift places us closer to the upper Bolinger Band as opposed to the lower, which has been the case for an impressive period of time. While a test is not imminent, this is a particularly important change in technical factors to note. Fundamentals Weather forecasts continue to be warmer than seasonal, which is the juggernaut factor holding prices down. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors continue to combat upward pressure. What’s Next? Bearish fundamental factors continue to dominate even though winter is around the corner. It would be reasonable to see prices climb as a kneejerk reaction to the first sighting of winter. When that comes and how strong the reaction is will be the big question. We expect prices to remain rangebound until this time with a mild push of an upward trend in the short term. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 42 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 44. The injection was larger than the five-year average of 29.   Today prices have decreased, currently trading at $2.95, down $0.03 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have increased from $2.69 for a $0.26 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have increased from $2.93 for a $0.02 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Prices Continue to Drop Due to Implications of Warm Weather 11/7/24 - Energy Update Well, we can officially eliminate weather risk number one…, an early start to winter. October and November have been seasonably warm, and forecasts show more of the same over the next few weeks. If prices are to be meaningfully threatened this winter, we will need to see an unusually cold winter hit the scene and/or a prolonged end to winter. Even if so, these frigid deviations will need to be significant as storage is filling up quickly, and unseasonally, as the warm start to November is projected to prolong injection season, providing more evidence in the case for low prices. Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are in a downtrend, providing support at $2.60 and resistance at $3.06. Directional Band While volatility is likely to challenge the longevity of the newly placed downward directional bands, it is officially time to recognize the trajectory. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.83 is continuing to decline. Tests A successful bottom band test has provided short-term value to slow the decline. However, the expected reaction to the test of a climb in value was greatly muted, not even reaching the resistance value before giving way to the continued drop. Current values continue to trend near the bottom band. Fundamentals Weather forecasts continue to be warmer than seasonal, which is the juggernaut factor holding prices down. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors continue to combat upward pressure. What’s Next? Make no bones about it, prices are soft. Fundamental factors are dominating direction even though winter is around the corner. It would be reasonable to see prices climb as a kneejerk reaction to the first sighting of winter but, according to forecasts, that is not even a threat until the latter half of November. We expect prices to remain soft until a meaningful chuck of winter weather shows up on our doorstep. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 69 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 65. The injection was larger than the five-year average of 32.   Today prices have decreased, currently trading at $2.67, down $0.07 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have increased from $2.66 for a $0.01 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have decreased from $3.22 for a -$0.55 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Prices Remain Predictably Unpredictable as Winter Looms 10/31/24 - Energy Update While natural gas prices have been very choppy over the last few months, the value has resulted in little net change and dare I say… predictable? This is due in large part to the consistently bearish fundamental factors keeping a tight hold on value which has allowed technical factors to operate in a controlled environment. July value settled at $2.63 and four months later, value is currently trading at $2.77 resulting in a net gain of a mere $0.14. Additionally, our weekly projections have been eerily accurate but not because of insider information or a crystal ball. This has been a direct result of interpreting technical indicators in a fundamentally controlled environment. Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are tightening rapidly, providing support at $2.69 and resistance at $3.19. It is significant to note the tightening is led by the collapse of the upper band (see chart). This increases the likelihood of a successful test and significantly lowers the resistance ceiling if prices were to make a run. Directional Band The intense short-term volatility is forcing a hold on placing a directional band. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.94 is continuing to decline. Tests While current values do not suggest a test is imminent, we are closer to a bottom band test. Fundamentals Weather forecasts continue to be warmer than seasonal, which is the juggernaut factor holding prices down. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors continue to combat upward pressure. What’s Next? As anticipated in last week’s update, value climbed just above $2.55 before getting hammered back down by resistance before the November contract settled. It is reasonable to expect trading to remain rangebound as we begin the transition into winter. However, the risk of price movement lies significantly to the upside as the threat of winter weather will help support prices. Expect the first cold snap of winter to push prices up regardless of fundamental factors at the time. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 78 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 82. The injection was larger than the five-year average of 67.   Today prices have increased, currently trading at $2.77, down $0.08 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have decreased from $3.02 for a -$0.22 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have decreased from $3.35 for a -$0.55 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

A Successful Test Supports Natural Gas Prices, but Will it Last? 10/24/24 - Energy Update Prices found technical support (shown in the chart) on the 18th/21st, which stalled the slide and began to push prices up. This support, however, is quite complicated because it is paired with bearish fundamentals. It once again looks like we’re pitted within the battle of bullish technicals and bearish fundamentals. With winter coming, the big question is “Which fighter will win?” Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are down-trending, providing support at $2.12 and resistance at $3.03. Current trading at $2.43 is benefiting from a run up due to a successful lower Bollinger band test. Directional Band The intense short-term volatility is forcing a hold on placing a directional band. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.58 is continuing to decline. Tests Precisely as predicted in last week’s update, a successful bottom Bollinger band test succeeded which has stopped the decline in value in its tracks. Additionally, we’re seeing the anticipated climb in value as the reaction. Current values do not suggest an imminent test. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are generally seasonal to warm, which is the juggernaut factor holding prices down. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These bearish fundamental factors continue to combat upward pressure. What’s Next? Prices are now trending up over the last week. We expect this trend to continue while meeting heavy resistance at $2.55. If trading breaches the $2.55 mark, $2.90 would be the next major resistance test. However, we expect the domination of bearish fundamentals to continue to play a leading role and will likely mute the reaction of the successful test. …but winter is around the corner, the ultimate wildcard in price movement. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 80 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 55. The injection was smaller than the five-year average of 76.   Today prices have increased, currently trading at $2.43, up $0.09 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have increased from $2.35 for a $0.08 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have decreased from $2.79 for a -$0.36 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Tanks Ahead of Winter. What’s Going On??? 10/17/24 - Energy Update Over the last two weeks, natural gas prices have shed gains that took well over month to accumulate… and then some more. The August 27th settlement price was $2.51. Over the next five weeks, the price rose to over $3.00 only to slide over the last two weeks to $2.37 on October 16th. Needless to say, prices are volatile, being pushed around by conflicting factors. So, the question is, where from here? Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are expanding, providing support at $2.36 and resistance at $3.08. Current trading at $2.38 is tapping the bottom band. Directional Band The intense short-term volatility is forcing a hold on placing a directional band. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.72 is taking a turn downward. Tests As cautioned last week, the momentum of the decline pushed prices down to the bottom Bollinger band. Active testing is taking place as you read this. If a successful test takes place (which could be today), prices will likely regain some value meeting resistance first at $2.72 and then around $3.00. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are generally seasonal to warm, which is the juggernaut factor pushing prices down. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These fundamental factors continue to combat upward pressure. What’s Next? Fundamental factors are keeping their foot on the throat of value. However, technical factors are placing strong short-term upward pressure. Additionally, the imminence of winter and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East & Eastern Europe have kindled the dreaded “unknown factor.” These bullish factors cannot be overstated as a concern to be keenly aware of. We consider this an excellent opportunity to secure long-term supply ahead of the impending winter. This is an opportune time to secure supply if you have not yet done so. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 76 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 75. The injection was smaller than the five-year average of 89.   Today prices have increased, currently trading at $2.38, up $0.02 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have decreased from $2.68 for a -$0.30 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have decreased from $2.61 for a -$0.23 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Are Natural Gas Prices Playing Games Ahead of Winter? 10/10/24 - Energy Update Prices have collapsed in a colossal fashion over one week, far greater than the two-week period it took to post the gains. Storage is ample, production is healthy, weather is moderate, but winter is around the corner. All this stated, where does this leave us? Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are showing signs of flattening out, providing support at $2.53 and resistance at $3.01. Current trading at $2.62 is spiraling towards the bottom band. Directional Band The intense short-term volatility is forcing a hold on placing a directional band currently. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.77 is stabilizing. Being that trading punched through the support value with ease will begin to place upward pressure on prices, especially if a successful bottom band test is successful. Tests In a momentous turn, prices are now eyeing a bottom band test when multiple upper band test failed repeatedly the two weeks prior. While we have not reached the point of a bottom band test, the downward momentum, if continued, could reach the band within a week. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are generally seasonal to warm. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These significant fundamental factors will continue to combat upward pressure. However, the imminence of winter and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East & Eastern Europe have kindled the dreaded “unknown factor.” These developments cannot be overstated as a concern enough to be keenly aware of. What’s Next? Prices are VERY unstable, period. Take a moment to let that sink in. What’s next? Great question. It is difficult to say with the impending winter pitted against bearish fundamentals. However, this is a great time to focus on the NOW instead of the future. This unexpected drop in value is a gift for those who have not secured supply for this winter. Let the steady climb accomplished in September be a wakeup call that prices can change on a dime (no pun intended) and prices are still in historic low range now. This is an opportune time to secure supply if you have not yet done so. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 82 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 70. The injection was smaller than the five-year average of 96.   Today prices have decreased, currently trading at $2.62, down $0.05 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have decreased from $2.97 for a -$0.35 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have increased from $2.55 for a $0.07 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations #naturalgas #energy #procurement

Natural Gas Prices Are on the Move Ahead of Winter – BE READY! 10/3/24 - Energy Update First, please accept my apologies for a few missed weeks of the report as I was out of the country. Second, and we’ll cover this more later, but regardless of personal position, let’s be of unified mind wishing for a swift & meaningful resolution to the global turmoil in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. May I kindly remind us all that those suffering are families, mothers, daughters, fathers & sons just as each of ours that mean so much to us. That said, let’s take a look at the energy market. Bollinger Band The Bollinger bands are opening to the upside, providing support at $2.45 and resistance at $3.02. Current trading at $2.97 is pushing the upper band for two weeks now. Directional Band The horizontal band, as expected, is gone while an upward band is swiftly developing supporting the increase in prices. Resistance (Support) The current resistance value of $2.74 is on the move, further supporting the increase in value. Tests Multiple “near-miss” tests have pushed prices up sharply. If a successful test is not executed, prices could continue to rise as the momentum is strong. Fundamentals Weather forecasts are generally seasonal. Production is consistent and strong. Storage is sufficient. These significant fundamental factors will continue to combat upward pressure. However, the imminence of winter and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East & Eastern Europe have kindled the dreaded “unknown factor.” These developments cannot be overstated as a concern enough to be keenly aware of. What’s Next? Prices are unstable with upward momentum. While it is reasonable to expect some leveling off at some points in time, factors are culminating into a concerning environment. 1)   If you heeded our advice over the last couple of months, nothing! You are locked in and protected. 2)   If you have not yet secured you supply, we strongly consider buying now as the upside risk is far greater than the downside. 3)   If you are a gambler, go at it with eyes wide open. You are betting against the house with winter around the corner and significant geopolitical unrest. Below are the weekly numbers for review:   The EIA weekly storage release reported an injection of 55 bcf compared to the expectation of an injection of 57. The injection was smaller than the five-year average of 98.   Today prices have increased, currently trading at $2.97, up $0.08 on the day.   Week-on-week prices have increased from $2.75 for a $0.22 net impact.   Month-on-month prices have increased from $2.55 for a $0.42 net impact.   We can partner with you to make informed, educated decisions to protect your energy procurement. If mitigating your risk (and stress) sounds inviting, we are the team you need. Contact us today!   Eric Wright Director, Gas Operations   #naturalgas #energy #procurement