ACLED

USAID once provided 40% of global aid. It’s no longer operational. Will this reshape global conflict? Unlikely. Political competition—not aid—drives violence. ?? Ukraine & Gaza’s conflicts won’t shift due to aid cuts—they are politically driven. ?? In Ethiopia, Somalia & Syria, aid supports food & healthcare—not war. The real crisis? Severe economic & social fallout, from healthcare to climate impacts. Clionadh Raleigh breaks it down: https://lnkd.in/eq-_j9Nz

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Update | 15–21 March 2025 Violence between the IDF and Hezbollah intensified last week, with 34 recorded events in Lebanon—a 48% increase from the previous week. Fatalities also rose sharply, up 60% with eight deaths reported, all in Lebanon. After several weeks of relative decline, this renewed escalation may signal a shifting trajectory in the conflict. Explore the latest data and trends from #ACLED: https://lnkd.in/eT6diDDw

The war in Yemen has killed over 160,000 people, according to #ACLED data. As Houthi attacks on commercial vessels draw renewed U.S. military action, this figure provides vital context for understanding the wider impact of the conflict. In its latest article, BBC News cites ACLED data while examining who the Houthis are and why the U.S. is targeting them. Explore the full article: https://lnkd.in/eftehgqU

Is a new war brewing between Ethiopia and Eritrea? #ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh weighs in: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire.” With the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s withdrawal from Tigray, internal rifts within the TPLF have deepened. One faction, aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael, is accused of colluding with former enemies —including Eritrea and Fano militias— while the ruling faction under Getachew Reda warns of opportunistic alliances and rising tensions. Yet, as Clionadh Raleigh explains, a direct confrontation remains unlikely. “Who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.” Read the full comment & background: https://lnkd.in/diigCPZs

“I experienced conflict in my own country… it became personal.” ACLED’s East Africa Senior Analyst, Jalale Getachew Birru (Dr.des), began using #ACLED data during her PhD to support her own conflict research. With both academic and lived experience, she now helps ensure ACLED’s data is reliable and accessible for analysis, policymaking, and humanitarian response across the Horn of Africa. Listen to Jalale reflect on her journey and explore the #Ethiopia Peace Observatory: https://epo.acleddata.com/

How do you track the true toll of a war like Yemen’s? At ACLED, every fatality is recorded through a conservative, event-based methodology—ensuring each count is backed by verified sources and a minimum estimate we’re confident in. By aggregating thousands of rigorously sourced events and working with trusted local partners, ACLED uncovered a death toll far higher than previously reported—even exceeding UN figures. ?? ACLED’s Director of Data, Lennart Landman, explains how this method has helped bring greater clarity to one of the world’s most complex conflicts. Explore the #Yemen Conflict Observatory: https://lnkd.in/ey_EC7B3?

If you're looking to stay on top of the latest developments in Gaza, check out ACLED's Gaza Monitor. It's updated weekly with new data, and you can easily filter events by actor, date, and type. You’ll also find a timeline that breaks down all events, starting from October 2023. Take a look: https://lnkd.in/g-APA7yn

What’s driving the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC? ACLED Senior Analyst Ladd Serwat joined PRX’s The World to explain the group’s origins in a failed military integration process, their recent territorial gains, and the broader dynamics fueling the conflict — including political ambitions, grievances over land and territorial control, and the role of regional relationships. He outlines Rwanda’s support for M23 as tied to grievances over DRC’s military ties with Uganda and Burundi, and notes that peace agreements have reduced direct Rwandan involvement but often exclude key actors like M23 and allied militias. ???Listen: https://lnkd.in/drwU_xjn

What will conflict look like six months from now? With ACLED CAST (Conflict Alert System), users can forecast political violence trends anywhere in the world—down to the provincial level—up to six months in advance. Updated monthly, CAST offers forecasts with a remarkable 2% average margin of error. It provides clear, event-based predictions—like projecting 3,000 conflict events in a country next month—alongside insights into the drivers behind the projections and how they compare to past trends. ?? In this short explainer, ACLED Head of Data Science Katayoun Kishi breaks down how CAST works, how it’s evolving, and why it’s becoming an essential resource for anyone planning ahead for conflict. Explore the tool and read the latest forecasts in the March CAST report:https://lnkd.in/dTpzTE_K

Looking to stay ahead of the fast-moving developments in global conflict and political violence? ACLED’s newsletters deliver expert analysis and curated updates straight to your inbox. Choose the regions and observatories that matter most to you—from Africa and the Middle East to Ukraine and beyond—and get the insights you need to follow key trends in 2025. Join thousands of policymakers, researchers, and analysts who rely on ACLED for trusted, data-driven reporting on crisis and conflict. ?? Subscribe now and customize your updates: https://lnkd.in/eXeQDr4