ACLED

USAID once provided 40% of global aid. It’s no longer operational. Will this reshape global conflict? Unlikely. Political competition—not aid—drives violence. ?? Ukraine & Gaza’s conflicts won’t shift due to aid cuts—they are politically driven. ?? In Ethiopia, Somalia & Syria, aid supports food & healthcare—not war. The real crisis? Severe economic & social fallout, from healthcare to climate impacts. Clionadh Raleigh breaks it down: https://lnkd.in/eq-_j9Nz

Cabo Ligado Update with Zitamar News and Mediafax: 24 February - 9 March 2025 Insurgent activity in Cabo Delgado slowed last fortnight, with just three recorded political violence events. However, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) fighters continue to move freely by boat, raising concerns about their operational reach. Meanwhile, state security forces appear more focused on repressing protests than countering the insurgency—with police firing on demonstrators at least 11 times since President Daniel Chapo’s inauguration. Allegations of corruption and human rights abuses are also mounting, with the Interior Minister linked to an arms import scandal, and the Netherlands launching an inquiry into state-backed violence in Palma. Cabo Delgado remains volatile. Explore ACLED’s latest analysis: https://lnkd.in/dfGW6ubj

#Ukraine Conflict Update | 1 – 7 March 2025 Russian forces intensified attacks in Kursk, seizing strongholds north of Sudzha and advancing south, partially cutting off Guevo and targeting key supply routes. By the end of the week, Russia had retaken two-thirds of the territory Ukraine captured in August 2024. The arrival of North Korean reinforcements and a weeklong US aid suspension may have contributed to Russia’s rapid gains. Meanwhile, violence against civilians remained severe: ?? 1,154 political violence events (7% decrease) ?? 66 attacks on civilians (down 22%), but fatalities surged ?? At least 41 civilian deaths (29% increase) Track the latest developments: https://lnkd.in/dMw7xYHe

Violence surged in the Central African Republic in February as deadly attacks against Fulani civilians escalated. Clashes between Anti-balaka militias and Fulani pastoralists erupted after a robbery on 14 February, triggering reprisals and counter-attacks across Ouham-Pendé prefecture. ACLED records at least 130 fatalities, with Fulani civilians comprising at least 85% of those killed in targeted attacks. This escalation made February the deadliest month in the country since March 2022, when Wagner Group forces carried out widespread civilian attacks in Vakaga prefecture. Read our latest #Africa Regional Overview: https://lnkd.in/gJzt2WjR

Violent clashes between Ethiopia’s Dasanech and Kenya’s Turkana communities over Lake Turkana use escalated between 20 and 23 February, leaving at least 30 dead and displacing 10,000 residents of Dasanech woreda. The conflict began after two Ethiopian fishermen were killed by Kenyan militias, triggering retaliatory attacks and confrontations with Kenyan national police reservists. Both sides suffered casualties as armed Dasanech militias launched counter-attacks, seizing boats, firearms, and fishing gear. Kenyan officials later retrieved some items, while the Ethiopian local government detained and later released 32 Kenyan fishermen. On 23 February, Turkana ethnic militias launched further attacks in Dasanech woreda, killing at least 13 people and forcing mass displacement. Read ACLED’s full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dJSD8KWp

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Update | 1 - 7 March 2025 Violence between the IDF and Hezbollah continued last week, with 31 recorded events in Lebanon—a 3% decrease from the previous week. Fatalities dropped sharply by 83%, with just one reported death in Lebanon. Despite this decline, 64,000 people in Lebanon remain exposed to violence. Is this a sign of de-escalation or just a temporary pause? Explore ACLED’s latest data for key insights: https://lnkd.in/eT6diDDw

#Indonesia: Budget cuts spark nationwide student protests and violence Students staged 100 demonstrations across 30 provinces in February against President Prabowo Subianto’s budget cuts to health and education, the highest protest levels since August 2024. In Papua, students demanded free education instead of free meals, citing safety concerns over government-provided food. While most protests were peaceful, violence erupted in 14 demonstrations, with state forces using live bullets and tear gas in Papua. Nearly 80 students were arrested, and several were injured. Amid the unrest, the West Papua National Liberation Army launched attacks on military bases in Central Papua, burned down two schools, and threatened further violence if the free lunch program continued. Read the full analysis in the latest Asia-Pacific Regional Overview: https://lnkd.in/dHykuAwh

The final weeks before the 23 February snap elections in #Germany saw a surge in anti-extremism demonstrations. ACLED records over 300 protests against the AfD and right-wing extremism—up 170% from January—making it the third-highest month of such demonstrations since early 2024. The largest rallies in Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, and Stuttgart gathered over 500,000 people combined. Meanwhile, political violence escalated, with seven targeted attacks on politicians, party offices, and election volunteers. Two violent attacks by asylum seekers in Munich and Berlin fueled political polarization, keeping migration policy at the center of the debate. Explore the latest Regional Overview: https://lnkd.in/dTJp47vQ

Governments, international organizations, and civil society increasingly rely on data to make informed decisions—ensuring resources are directed effectively, programs are evaluated, and progress is monitored. As data quality improves, so do the tools that help extract critical insights. ACLED’s Head of Grants & Development Matt Fluegel-Carew highlights how advancements in data reliability and accessibility are making conflict analysis more precise and actionable. With the right tools, conflict data is more useful than ever in shaping impactful responses.

Following #US President Donald Trump’s clemency for all 6 January rioters, the Proud Boys ramped up activity, while Oath Keepers made their first public appearance in over two years. On 21 February, members of both groups participated in a public demonstration in Washington DC, defending their actions during the Capitol riot. During the event, former Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio was arrested for assault. The Proud Boys also participated in demonstrations in Oregon and North Carolina, while recruitment flyers appeared in Rhode Island. February recorded the highest single-month number of events involving the group since October 2023, signaling a potential resurgence. With clemency granted to key figures, their activity may continue to rise. Read more in the latest Regional Overview: https://lnkd.in/gbcxjUDY