The 'Big Stay' Is Still Here — But May Not Stay That Way for Long

First, there was the Before Times; then, COVID-19 turned the world upside down; then, the Great Reshuffle (also known as the Great Resignation) pushed attrition to record highs; now, many say we’re currently in the Big Stay, a sustained period of lower attrition. 

But how real is the so-called Big Stay — and perhaps more importantly, what’s next? Is the Great Reshuffle 2.0 just around the corner, or the Big Stay the new normal? 

New LinkedIn data can help answer some, but not all, of these questions (you’ll need to turn to tea leaves to tell the future). 

The data clearly shows that departures are down significantly: Attrition rates have fallen by 26% year-over-year and by even more since the height of the Great Reshuffle. While that might seem to confirm we’re in a very real Big Stay, the truth is a little more complicated, as we’ll explore below. 

Still, recruiting professionals can glean plenty of insights about how attrition is trending, when it might reverse course, and how to prepare. Read on to see what the latest data indicates about the Big Stay, about which industries are seeing the sharpest declines in employee departures, and about how quickly things could turn around. 

The current state of the so-called Big Stay

LinkedIn Talent Insights defines attrition as “the number of professionals who departed the company in the past 12 months divided by the average number of employees during this period.” Put simply, attrition measures the share of employees who leave a company within a certain period — regardless of whether or not those roles are backfilled or replaced by new roles. 

LinkedIn data shows attrition rates have indeed fallen significantly over the past year.

Across LinkedIn globally, attrition rates have decreased by 26% year-over-year, and by 37% since attrition rates peaked during the Great Reshuffle in August 2022. 

This trend can be seen broadly across virtually every industry — though certain sectors have seen more pronounced declines.

The industries seeing the greatest declines year-over-year — like healthcare, food services, and retail — also saw some of the sharpest spikes in attrition during the Great Reshuffle. 

That raises an important question: Is the Big Stay actually a period of historically low attrition, or is it just a regression to the mean (a return to business-as-usual) after a period of historically high attrition? 

Kory Kantenga, the head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, notes that quit rates have simply returned to levels seen in the late 2010s — at least in the United States. While attrition is definitely lower than it was one or two years ago, it’s still unclear whether attrition will continue to fall to truly historic lows, plateau around the prepandemic baseline, or reverse course and rise as quickly as it fell. 

When the switch flips, it can flip fast

One thing the last few years have taught us, however, is that if attrition is going to bounce back, it could do so very quickly. 

After the onset of COVID, attrition hit a low point in April 2021, but reversed course rapidly — it only took 16 months to rise by 26%, reaching the peak of the Great Reshuffle in August 2022.

Naturally, the Great Reshuffle was itself a unique moment and isn’t guaranteed to reoccur the same way. But just as no one could predict all the changes wrought by the pandemic, it’s very difficult to predict how the global labor market will change over the next few years. 

Signs that things may be turning a corner

Still, there are a few hints that attrition rates may reverse course again in the near term to medium term, particularly in the U.S. 

Microsoft’s latest Work Trends Index report, done in collaboration with LinkedIn, found that 46% of professionals around the world say they’re considering quitting in the year ahead. Crucially, this is considerably higher than the 40% who said the same just ahead of the Great Reshuffle. 

The report also analyzed U.S. LinkedIn data to reveal a recent 14% increase in job applications per role from November 2023 to March 2024.

The U.S. labor market continues to stabilize, according to Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn’s chief economist. And while the year-over-year change in job transitions is still negative, it does seem to be ticking back up to a higher rate of change over the last several months. Of course, people can only change jobs when there are jobs available, so the state of the economy will likely dictate if and when things turn around.

Final thoughts

No one can perfectly predict the future, but you can be prepared. If and when things turn around, you don’t want to find yourself scrambling just to keep pace with competitors. 

“If history repeats itself, this period of low attrition will be followed by a period of high attrition,” writes Daniel Shapero, LinkedIn’s chief operating officer. “Many companies, particularly in technology, are at risk of being caught flat-footed when attrition spikes. . . . Even if you’re not expecting to grow your employee base, backfilling departures often constitutes the bulk of corporate hiring.”

In his conclusion, Daniel notes: “It’s during these moments of reacceleration that those who are prepared win market share. By taking some simple steps now, you can put yourself in a stronger position to retain and attract the right people for the inevitable next reshuffling of talent.”

Methodology

Attrition rate was calculated as the sum of last 12-month (L12M) departures divided by average headcount in the L12M (that is, the headcount at the beginning of the given year plus the headcount at the end of the given year divided by two) for full-time employees. We excluded companies with a headcount of less than 15 or attrition rates of over 50% (small companies). 

For year-over-year comparisons, the time period was April 2023 – March 2024 for current year attrition and April 2022 – March 2023 for prior year attrition. Note: Attrition rates rely on LinkedIn members actively updating their profiles and, as such, may vary based on their individual behaviors.

For indexing attrition rates against the low point prior to the Great Reshuffle, we pulled monthly attrition rates in the last 45 months. We then indexed attrition against the 12-month rolling data from April 2021, the lowest attrition rates dipped before rising over the period of the Great Reshuffle. Headcount and departures were calculated on a rolling 12-month basis.