It was wonderful to attend the Milken Institute #GlobalConference last week. It was a whirlwind week of meeting new and old friends, and after taking some time to reflect, as mentioned last week, here are my key takeaways.
The key theme is a ?? in transition...
??With Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z gaining greater influence around the world (US politics being the exception), the current post-WWII system will change significantly. We are likely to see more geopolitical conflicts and turbulence in the next few years, creating a sizeable demand for security and resilience solutions from companies to countries.
??Energy demand will increase exceptionally due to AI. The rise of a new middle class from Asia to Africa will require new technologies, efficiencies, and systems to meet demand over the next forty years. For reference, from 2012 to 2022, worldwide terawatt hours only increased by 22%.
??By 2040, one out of every five Americans will be over 65, a double-digit increase from today. As we start the largest generationtional transition in US history, longevity, healthcare, and even real estate will need to be transformed to accommodate this new reality.
??AI, while promising, is still in its "intern phase", and we will likely see AI get incrementally better each year, and only when we look back like we do at the early brick-like mobile phones will we realize how far AI has progressed.
??Lastly, on private markets, the industry is still adjusting to a higher interest rate environment, with PE/VC invested capital down 34% from 2021 to 2023, causing little cash returns to patient-waning Limited Partners. While private credit, which now encompasses venture debt, net asset value loans, in addition to senior & junior debt, is in hot demand, the private investment world still has much to reconcile before dealmaking returns.
?? Special shoutout to Dr Mohsin Pirzada, #ChrisDarby, #MichaelMilken, Ken Griffin, Elon Musk, Theodore Koenig, Peter Stavros, Raj Subramaniam, Daniella Ballou-Aares, Kahlil Byrd (KB), Yup S. Kim, Anne Valentine Andrews, and Andrew Milgram for your thoughtful commentary that greatly informed these reflections.