You're facing complex healthcare decisions. How can scenario planning guide your choices?

In healthcare, scenario planning involves evaluating different future possibilities to make informed decisions. For example, a patient with chronic illness might explore scenarios where they adopt various treatment plans or lifestyle changes, such as dietary adjustments or new medications. By assessing these potential outcomes, they can choose the approach that best aligns with their long-term health goals and personal values, leading to more personalized and effective care strategies.

In healthcare, scenario planning helps in anticipating and adapting to potential changes. For instance, a hospital might identify key variables like patient admission rates and staff availability. By creating scenarios such as a sudden increase in patient volume or a shortage of medical supplies, the hospital can develop strategies to address these challenges, ensuring they can maintain high-quality care and effectively manage resources.

In healthcare, constructing detailed scenarios helps assess potential outcomes of decisions. For instance, if a hospital is considering adopting a new patient monitoring system, creating scenarios might involve evaluating how different levels of system integration could impact patient safety, workflow efficiency, and staff workload. These scenarios help visualize the practical effects of the new system and guide decision-making to ensure beneficial real-world outcomes.

Key in healthcare is not to boil the ocean but be clear on workflows, if that means a visit to site it is much needed for the team to understand the workflows. Writing scenarios based on healthcare customer needs and ensuring we consistently execute them is the key. Overdoing way to complex scenarios which never happens in the customer site is a waste of lot of effort and time, instead write tests that ensure a reliable system is built and shipped

I wrote a post about this the other day that I think this is the hardest time in history to be in charge of hospital planning (physical location). On one hand - we have surging demand from an increasingly older and sicker population. On the other hand - we have potential miracle drugs that might mitigate some of the worst effects of our food system and overall culture of health. We've also got a technology revolution with AI and all that comes next. So, I don't envy the people in charge of building mega hospital buildings - but I do think we can be thoughtful in integrating them into communities, having flexible space that may end up as retail or gyms, etc. Options is probably the name of the game.

Simulation is key. Look at all the possible scenarios and evaluate their impact. Then combine scenarios, and create the perfect storm. Test it, test again, test it sideways. If you can handle all scenarios; then you have got it wrong and are self-deluding. Evaluate the impact backward as well as forward. For example, introducing a new technology will create technology adoption issues and awareness issues. But equally, removing a technology can create its own problems that need testing. I have seen paper fallback fail because staff had never seen a paper-based system and didn't know how to fill in the forms. In a power cut, a paper-based fallback system that required staff to print out and photocopy the paperwork as needed. DUH!

It's crucial to anticipate and plan for various contingencies that may arise. Scenario planning helps by creating a framework to systematically consider different potential outcomes and their implications. By exploring multiple scenarios, healthcare decision-makers can identify and assess a range of possible risks, challenges, and opportunities associated with each scenario. This process enables proactive planning and preparation, allowing for more effective responses to unexpected developments and ensuring that decision-makers are better equipped to handle uncertainties as they arise.