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You’re a corporate finance professional. How can you develop your forecasting skills?

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Forecasting is a vital skill for corporate finance professionals, as it helps them plan, budget, and evaluate various business scenarios. However, forecasting is also challenging, as it involves dealing with uncertainty, complexity, and assumptions. How can you improve your forecasting skills and become a more effective financial analyst? Here are some tips to help you.

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Ameya Oke

Corporate FP&A | LinkedIn Top Voice | Technology Transformation | Cost Optimization | Partnering Business Performance
Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro

1 Understand the purpose

Before you start forecasting, you need to understand the purpose and scope of your analysis. What are the key questions you are trying to answer? What are the main drivers and variables that affect your forecast? What are the sources and reliability of your data? What are the assumptions and limitations of your model? By clarifying these aspects, you can define your objectives, scope, and methodology for your forecast.

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Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro
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eu chamo a primeira fase de explora??o, aqui onde fazemos as principais perguntas, sobre o passado da organiza??o e dos dados, além das expectativas dos sócios. Saber onde a empresa quer chegar e de que modo os sócios pensam é de suma importancia para entender e ter condi??es de iniciar um planejamento alinhado aos valores do negócio.

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Ameya Oke

Corporate FP&A | LinkedIn Top Voice | Technology Transformation | Cost Optimization | Partnering Business Performance
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One of the crucial ways to hone one's forecasting skills is to have a frequent and open interaction with the business teams. Forecasting is no longer just a Finance Job. We see many purportedly sophisticated forecasting exercises fail for the lack of business flavor and failure to bake in the reasonable assumptions in line with the situation on ground. It is important to not restrict the forecasting exercise to merely a spreadsheet model. Forecasting is a collaborative exercise which needs to focus on business partnership thereby helping the finance teams to create a sound business plan.

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2 Choose the right tools

There are many tools and techniques available for forecasting, such as Excel, financial modeling software, statistical methods, and machine learning. Depending on the type, complexity, and accuracy of your forecast, you may need to use different tools or combine them. For example, you may use Excel to create a simple cash flow projection, but you may need a more sophisticated software to perform a sensitivity analysis or a scenario planning. You should also be familiar with the features, functions, and formulas of your tools, and how to use them effectively and efficiently.

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Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro
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Independente do software utilizado, o profissional deve se atentar ao essencial e ao imprescindível. Estamos falando de planejamento financeiro, ent?o deve-se saber como funciona uma estrutura de balan?o, DRE e fluxo de caixa indireto. Esse conhecimento teórico é fundamental antes de usar qualquer ferramenta.

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3 Validate and test your forecast

Once you have created your forecast, you need to validate and test it to ensure its quality and reliability. You can do this by checking your data, calculations, and assumptions for errors, inconsistencies, or biases. You can also compare your forecast with historical data, industry benchmarks, or external sources to see if it is reasonable and realistic. You can also perform a sensitivity analysis or a scenario analysis to see how your forecast changes under different conditions or assumptions.

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Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro
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Após as previs?es serem modeladas, é importante fazer as devidas verifica??es a fim de identificar possíveis outliers. Com isso a previs?o estará mais próxima de uma realidade com base no histórico do negócio.

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4 Communicate your forecast

The final step of forecasting is to communicate your results and insights to your stakeholders, such as managers, clients, or investors. You need to present your forecast clearly, concisely, and convincingly, using appropriate charts, tables, and graphs. You also need to explain the logic, assumptions, and limitations of your forecast, and how it relates to the purpose and scope of your analysis. You also need to address any questions, feedback, or objections that may arise from your audience, and be prepared to update or revise your forecast if needed.

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Ameya Oke

Corporate FP&A | LinkedIn Top Voice | Technology Transformation | Cost Optimization | Partnering Business Performance
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One of the key skills in FP&A is the art of story telling! One may run the risk of putting the strategic plan just on paper if the same is not effectively communicated to the stakeholders. We need to convince the stakeholders of the organization objectives, broken down into short terms goals and how the same are strategically aligned with the forecasting exercise. Once we establish the alignment, we explain the assumptions and limitations that have gone into building the forecast and the actual forecasting model itself. The same needs to be communicated through appropriate charts, tables, graphs and attractive infographics that are intuitive to understand and quickly captures the intended message.

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Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro
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Relatar é um dos principais pilares do FP&A. Após a previs?o, compara-se com a realidade e se constrói relatórios para apresentar para os sócios as varia??es. Estas discuss?es s?o importantes para defini??o de estratégias de curso, caso algo n?o esteja dando certo, pode ser o or?amento que foi feito errado, ou a empresa deve pensar em mudan?a de curso, de estratégia de fornecedor, de mix, etc...

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5 Learn from feedback

Forecasting is not a one-time activity, but a continuous process of learning and improvement. You should always seek feedback from your peers, mentors, or experts on your forecasting skills and performance. You should also monitor and evaluate your forecast against actual outcomes, and identify any gaps, errors, or deviations. You should also reflect on your strengths and weaknesses, and look for opportunities to enhance your knowledge, skills, and tools for forecasting.

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Guilherme Henrique .'.

Administrador e Contador, Perito Judicial, Consultor Empresarial, e Especialista em Planejamento Financeiro
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Feedbacks s?o importantes para alinhamento de expectativas sobre o que tem sido feito. Trabalhar com profissionais capacitados nos torna também mais capacitados, é sempre bom interagir e pedir uma segunda opini?o sobre o trabalho.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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SeongJin Kim

Head of Financial Planning and Management Part, Samsung Foundry | Excelling in leading financial optimization and supporting growth strategies
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Find the critical factors. They may be the revenues, production quantities, yields, expenses, investments, etc. No matter how you pour your time and effort into your forecasting logic and calculations, if the input values are wrong, your forecasting also goes wrong. You may think you did a good job and the others did wrong, but remember, your executives need right results, not just correct calculations.

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You’re a corporate finance professional. How can you develop your forecasting skills?

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2

3

4

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6

1 Understand the purpose

2 Choose the right tools

3 Validate and test your forecast

4 Communicate your forecast

5 Learn from feedback

6 Here’s what else to consider

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