What strategies can you use to make decisions with incomplete or ambiguous information?

"If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there." This quote prompts me to think about how we make choices without a clear vision of our desired outcome. As a result our decision making lacks an strategic approach, and it frequently leads to disappointment. From my experiences ,decisions made solely based on intuition or impulse tend to be suboptimal when compared to decisions where we carefully consider our desired outcomes and the various paths that can lead us there.

An example of this would be collecting data of a previous successful and unsuccessful project. Data can include timelines, resources and of course outcome.

A very important thing when collecting information is to separate facts from opinions. When collecting first party raw data through surveys and interviews, it is likely that a lot of emotions, feelings, biases might creep in. So how do we identify and separate facts from opinions / biases? - Is it debatable endlessly?: If so, it is likely to be an opinion and hence needs to be dug deeper to validate. Facts are usually agreed upon quickly, because they're based on evidence. - Look for very strong statements: Strong statements come from personal experiences and emotions and most likely have some level of bias. - Find evidence: Once identified, start looking for supporting data and statistics to back up each piece of information

As Taleb recommends in The Black Swan, a focus on anti-knowledge is just as important as gathering the information available to you. Asking “What do I not know?” Can be a helpful tool to identify gaps in knowledge, which can be integral to planning a path forward. Trying to identify what you don’t know can also lend itself to identifying potential bias from existing knowledge, experience, and values.

It may also be helpful to consider the possibility of extreme circumstances. Knowing what decision you would make at both ends of the outcome spectrum can help you find a happy medium- and prepare yourself and stakeholders for outliers.

An unpopular opinion when making decision when you're not sure even with all the available information: Go with your gut feeling. It can go wrong, but so can any decision. If you want to be on the safer side - you may choose to test your decision before finalizing it. As it is rightly mentioned, no matter what your decision, you should be confident and assertive in your decision.

Taking a decision is just half the battle won. Acting upon it, making necessary adjustments along the way, is equally critical. Strategies and decisions hold no value unless they are implemented and monitored against the goals. (these goals are for which we undertook this decision making process in the first place)

With careful consideration and a willingness to take action, I have found that you can make the right decision even in the face of uncertainty. It is vital to gather information, but sometimes, you need to trust your instincts and take a calculated risk. Remember to be confident, take charge, and remain optimistic through the decision-making process. Don't let doubt prevent you from making the right choice.