What are some best practices for eliciting and validating expert opinions?

Eliciting and validating expert opinions is crucial for informed decision-making in project management. In short, best practices for eliciting and validating expert opinions include using a structured process, employing analog tools, avoiding overconfidence, iterative feedback, documenting assumptions, involving a diverse panel, facilitated sessions, cross-verification, and maintaining transparency. These practices help ensure that expert judgments are accurate, reliable, and useful for informed decision-making.

Expert judgment is a process of obtaining informed recommendations from individuals who possess specialized knowledge, skills, or expertise in a particular domain. It is a decision-making technique commonly used where decisions must be made based on incomplete or uncertain information. Often used to complement other decision-making methods, such as data analysis or modeling, and can help to reduce uncertainty, bias, or errors in decision-making. Expert opinion and recommendations may be based on personal experience, professional judgment, research, or other sources of information. Expert judgment is particularly valuable in situations where decisions must be made quickly, and there is a high degree of complexity or uncertainty involved.

In expert judgement I always want to refer to professionals with many years of inspection experiences and qualifications and credentials.

Expert judgment is used to make informed decisions when there is complexity, uncertainty, or incomplete information. It helps identify risks, anticipate problems, and develop effective strategies to mitigate them. Expert judgment is valuable where data or modeling is not available or may be unreliable. It reduces bias, errors, or inconsistencies in decision-making and promotes effective outcomes. Expert judgment is particularly useful in fields such as business, engineering, science, medicine, and law, where decisions have significant consequences and must be based on the best available information.

The best way to elicit expert opinions is through a structured, collaborative process. Experts should be identified based on their knowledge, skills, and experience, and provided with clear instructions. The process should be transparent and allow enough time and resources. Experts can be consulted individually or in groups and their opinions documented and analyzed. Open discussion and debate should be encouraged. Technology can facilitate the process, especially for remote experts. Resulting opinions and recommendations should be validated and tested to ensure accuracy.

To validate expert opinions, experts' knowledge and experience should be verified. Opinions should be compared with data, literature, or studies, tested using simulations or experiments, and evaluated by other experts or independent reviewers. Opinions should be reviewed over time and their impact monitored and evaluated. Validating expert opinions ensures accuracy and reliability, leading to better decisions and positive outcomes.

Best practices for eliciting and validating expert opinions include forming diverse panels, using structured methodologies like Delphi technique, and incorporating real-world data for validation. For example, in subsea wind projects, experts assess turbine performance considering factors like depth and wind patterns; in grid code compliance studies, diverse specialists evaluate regulatory adherence; in battery storage, experts analyze performance against predicted outcomes, enhancing reliability and accuracy.

Expert opinions inform decision-making by providing insights and recommendations based on specialized knowledge and experience. They should be integrated with other sources of information, identify risks and opportunities, and anticipate future trends. Expert opinions should be transparently communicated, documented, and periodically reviewed to ensure their relevance and accuracy. By using expert opinions effectively, decision-makers can improve their decisions and achieve better outcomes.