What are the potential biases and errors in using risk assessment tools?

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Risk assessment tools are widely used in various domains, such as project management, health care, security, and finance, to help leaders make informed decisions and mitigate potential hazards. However, these tools are not flawless and can be affected by various biases and errors that can compromise their validity and reliability. In this article, you will learn about some of the common sources of bias and error in risk assessment tools, how they can impact your leadership outcomes, and what you can do to avoid or minimize them.

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Pablo Rosero

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1 Cognitive biases

Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts or distortions that affect how you perceive, process, and interpret information. They can influence how you use risk assessment tools, such as by making you overestimate or underestimate the likelihood or severity of certain risks, ignore or dismiss relevant evidence, or rely too much on intuition or heuristics. Some examples of cognitive biases that can affect risk assessment are confirmation bias, availability bias, anchoring bias, and optimism bias. To reduce the impact of cognitive biases, you should seek diverse perspectives, challenge your assumptions, review your data critically, and use structured methods and criteria to evaluate risks.

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Pablo Rosero

?? Hire Now for Product role ???? The diversity of my profile is a testament to my 360 experience, incredible adaptability, and trust received from the biggest companies in the world. ??ex: Google, Adobe, Disney
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There are around 6-10 most common scientific biases, including construct validity, which is the trickiest to catch since it's an issue of wrongly defined foundational parameters that cause bias or skew towards a particular opinion. This, for example, is very common in poorly designed polls with no methodological analytics.

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?? Nicolas THEBAULT
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Les exemples que je connais le mieux en terme de gestion des risques et biais cognitifs, sont l'analyse des accidents d'avion. C'est le domaine qui pousse les investigations le plus loin pour comprendre et corriger. Par exemple : - la pression du résultat, en l'occurrence arriver à l'heure et à destination, effacent ou minimisent mes signaux d'alerte. Quand on ne les écoute pas une fois, deux fois, on est pris dans une spirale de déni et il devient plus difficile de renoncer ou changer les plans. - trop se fier aux instruments qui parfois dysfonctionnent. Certains pilotes chevronnés continuent à cabrer leur avion, pensant avoir assez de vitesse alors que la vibration des commandes annoncent un décrochage. - minimisation des dangers ..

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Juan Diego Cano García

Director Legal | Comercio internacional | Derecho aduanero | Docente | Speaker
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El primer paso para evitar los sesgos cognitivos es ser consciente de su existencia. Reconocer que todos estamos sujetos a ellos puede ayudarnos a cuestionar nuestras decisiones y buscar perspectivas alternativas. Algunas herramientas que pueden servir para liderar y evitar los sesgos son: - Incluir miembros con diferentes antecedentes y experiencias puede proporcionar una variedad de perspectivas que ayuden a contrarrestar los sesgos individuales. - Fomentar una cultura de retroalimentación constructiva donde los miembros del equipo puedan se?alar posibles sesgos en un entorno de apoyo. - Utilizar datos y evidencia objetiva para respaldar las decisiones puede reducir la influencia de los sesgos.

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2 Data quality

Data quality refers to the accuracy, completeness, consistency, relevance, and timeliness of the data that you use to feed your risk assessment tools. Poor data quality can lead to inaccurate or misleading results, such as false positives, false negatives, or skewed distributions. Poor data quality can be caused by various factors, such as human error, system error, data entry error, data manipulation, data duplication, or data obsolescence. To improve data quality, you should verify your data sources, validate your data inputs, clean your data regularly, and update your data frequently.

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?? Nicolas THEBAULT
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Quand la technique annonce des résultats contradictoires, il faut revenir aux basics, les fondamentaux. Pour reprendre l'image de l'aviateur, il doit piloter "avec les fasses" comme les pionniers.

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Juan Diego Cano García

Director Legal | Comercio internacional | Derecho aduanero | Docente | Speaker
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Las decisiones basadas en datos son fundamentales para liderar equipos de trabajo con eficacia. A continuación algunas buenas prácticas para el uso de datos y como mejorar su calidad: - Los datos proporcionan una base objetiva para tomar decisiones, lo que ayuda a eliminar prejuicios personales o sesgos cognitivos. - Formar al equipo en habilidades de análisis de datos y uso de herramientas de software especializadas. - Emplear herramientas avanzadas de análisis de datos que puedan detectar anomalías o patrones inusuales. Al centrarse en la calidad y precisión de los datos, los líderes pueden tomar decisiones más informadas y efectivas, lo que resulta en un liderazgo con pasión y equipos de trabajo más exitosos.

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3 Tool design

Tool design refers to the features, functions, and parameters of the risk assessment tools that you use. Tool design can affect how you interpret and apply the results of the risk assessment, such as by providing unclear or ambiguous definitions, scales, or thresholds, using inappropriate or outdated models or algorithms, or generating complex or confusing outputs or reports. Tool design can be influenced by various factors, such as the purpose, scope, and context of the risk assessment, the availability and accessibility of the tool, and the feedback and evaluation of the tool users. To enhance tool design, you should align your tool with your risk assessment objectives, test your tool for validity and reliability, and solicit and incorporate user feedback and suggestions.

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?? Nicolas THEBAULT
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Un exemple qui me frappe dans ce domaine. Je crois qu'il s'agissait de l'accident du mont Saint Odile, qui detruisit un airbus A 320 avec tous ses passagers.. Les pilotes ont affiché un taux de descente erroné sur le tableau de bord. Ils ont confondus degrés avec %. Le résultat est qu'ils ont accroché le relief avec un angle trop à piqué. Cet instrument a été revu pour détromper l'équipage sur ces deux valeurs si différentes. Une approche classique pour un avion qui est de 3% soit 5 ° et non pas l'inverse !

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4 Human factors

Human factors refer to the psychological, emotional, social, and cultural aspects that affect how you and your team use and interact with the risk assessment tools. Human factors can affect your risk assessment outcomes, such as by creating resistance or complacency, inducing stress or fatigue, or generating conflict or distrust. Human factors can be influenced by various factors, such as the motivation, attitude, and behavior of the tool users, the communication and collaboration among the tool users, and the training and support for the tool users. To address human factors, you should foster a positive and supportive risk culture, provide adequate training and guidance for the tool users, and encourage open and honest communication and feedback among the tool users.

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?? Nicolas THEBAULT
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Un des principaux risques dans les accidents d'avion, presque toujours multifactoriels, est le facteur humain. Un déséquilibre d'autorité entre pilote et copilote par exemple, risque de museler le r?le de garde fou de l'un vis à vis de l'autre. Un pilote chevronné mais autoritaire et de mauvaise humeur n'écoutera les avertissements de son jeune co-pilote. C'est la même chose en entreprise, surtout celle où un dipl?me élitiste donnera au dirigeant carte blanche pour aller dans le mur, sans que personne n'ose le contre dire.

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5 Ethical issues

Ethical issues refer to the moral and legal implications of using risk assessment tools, especially when they affect the rights, interests, and welfare of other people or groups. Ethical issues can arise when you use risk assessment tools, such as by creating bias or discrimination, violating privacy or confidentiality, or causing harm or injustice. Ethical issues can be influenced by various factors, such as the values, norms, and expectations of the stakeholders, the transparency and accountability of the risk assessment process, and the consequences and trade-offs of the risk assessment decisions. To address ethical issues, you should adhere to the relevant laws, regulations, and standards, consult and involve the stakeholders, and monitor and evaluate the impact of the risk assessment decisions.

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Khalil Zafar

|Global HR & Strategy Expert| Technical Recruiter| Business Management Consultant| Keynote Speaker| Author: Future Of Work Simplified|
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In most of the cases these tools are designed for a specific geographic region for people with certain personality traits. It is essential to make sure that reliability and validity testing is completed before hand.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Omar Halabieh

Tech Director @ Amazon Payment Services | #1 LinkedIn Arab World Creator in Management & Leadership | Follow me for Daily Insights on Leadership, Management and Career | Mentor
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One of the biggest risks with risk assessment tools (no pun intended) is the fact that they largely assess risks based on historical precedence. Pressure test the assessment for more extreme cases, to ensure that the conclusions would still hold (even if the scenarios are less likely, they are still probable).

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What are the potential biases and errors in using risk assessment tools?

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2

3

4

5

6

1 Cognitive biases

2 Data quality

3 Tool design

4 Human factors

5 Ethical issues

6 Here’s what else to consider

Leadership Development

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What are the potential biases and errors in using risk assessment tools?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Cognitive biases

2 Data quality

3 Tool design

4 Human factors

5 Ethical issues

6 Here’s what else to consider

Leadership Development

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