What are the most important considerations when creating a rolling forecast?

Les prévisions glissantes sont importantes dans les projets ou commandes à forte fluctuation, à savoir les projets dans le domaine de la construction d'ouvrages ainsi que les productions sur des outils de productions en fin de vie, les problèmes de changement de gamme se posent dés lors et il est nécessaire de revoir ces prévisions en ajustement continu

When setting up a rolling forecast, start by clarifying its objectives and how it aligns with the strategic goals of the company. The key is to understand how this forecast will enhance decision-making and planning. Identify the main factors driving your forecast, like sales trends, operational metrics, and establish how often you'll update it, typically ranging from monthly to quarterly. This clarity of purpose and regular updates allow the rolling forecast to be a dynamic tool, adapting to changes and guiding your business towards its strategic targets.

Defining our purpose is vital for a rolling forecast. It aligns financial planning with broader objectives. For example, if sustainability is the purpose, the forecast might prioritize eco-friendly practices, showcasing commitment to the core mission. This link ensures financial planning drives the organization towards its goals.

Creating a rolling forecast is like juggling kittens on a unicycle while blindfolded - gotta be agile, adaptable, and prepared for chaos! Seriously, the key is finding the sweet spot between staying fresh with updates and not freaking out every time the market burps. You want data that's up-to-date, but not so volatile it sends your predictions into a nosedive. Remember, you're not Nostradamus, just a brave soul trying to guess where the financial winds will blow. So breathe, embrace the uncertainty, and have a backup plan for when the kittens inevitably go flying.

Ter um propósito bem definido deve ser o primeiro passo antes de qualquer previs?o, pois orienta todo o processo de elabora??o do or?amento, garantindo que ele seja direcionado para alcan?ar os objetivos estratégicos da empresa. Como diz a célebre frase de Alice no País das Maravilhas “se você n?o sabe para onde ir, qualquer caminho serve”, se o proposito n?o for bem definido, você estará levando a empresa para “qualquer caminho” e n?o para o “melhor caminho”. Por isso você precisa identificar os principais desafios e oportunidades que a organiza??o enfrenta, entender como o mercado está se comportando e principalmente questionar cada ponto no intuito de estabelecer prioridades e a tomar decis?es mais assertivas.

When setting up a rolling forecast, it’s essential to Define the objectives and align them with the company's strategic goals. Throughout the process, automating data analysis via embedding the updates will support the decision-making process via timely forecasting, ultimately resulting in a dynamic forecasting tool. Finally, Monitor and Adjust by Keeping an eye on the performance for tracking the progress of goals’ achievement.

I think it there are so many considerations when thinking about how best to design your model. I think some of the smartest designed models take into account both the planning process from a business perspective, but also how the users should interact with the model as part of their work. By doing this, you can really increase the level of adoption, and provide people with a tool to make enhanced decision making, rather than just having a model that sits on the shelves picking up dust!

Ensure that the rolling forecast provides actionable insights. It's not just about predicting the future but also about understanding what actions can be taken now to influence future outcomes.

Recomendaciones: Comienza con un modelo simple y ve aumentando la complejidad a medida que sea necesario. Utiliza una combinación de datos históricos y análisis de mercado para crear un pronóstico más preciso. Elige métricas e indicadores que sean relevantes para tu negocio. Utiliza un formato que sea fácil de entender y usar. Revisa y actualiza tu pronóstico regularmente.

Automation is the key to timely rolling forecast updates. Because rolling forecasts have a higher update frequency, automating the process of updating the model with the prior month's actuals, and adding another month to the rolling forecast, should be automated. In Excel, months should be set up in columns, making it easier to update the model. Assumptions, processing of numbers, and output should be in a single column. Also, creating a standard repeatable data import process for updating the prior month's actuals is also recommended.

It ensures efficient execution aligned with broader goals. For instance, automating data analysis speeds up forecasting, allowing more time for strategic decision-making in line with the organization's purpose.

One of the biggest criticisms I hear about rolling forecasts is that it takes up too much time - people just spend their whole time updating forecasts. Automation of as much of the non-value add components of rolling forecasting is therefore extremely important. From setting up new versions, to informing users of updates, to ensuring calculations effectively roll through the models, effective automation has so much value to bring to the table. And ultimately, automation can give you more of that most valuable resource - your time!

Establishing a rolling forecast requires alignment o with the organization's strategic goals. Once the forecast approach is determined, integrating automation becomes crucial for seamless adjustments. Furthermore, maintaining regular touchpoints with the team and assigning ownership are critical components to ensure effective execution.

Pasos para automatizar tu proceso: Define tu proceso actual de pronóstico. Identifica las tareas que se pueden automatizar. Selecciona la herramienta de automatización adecuada. Configura la herramienta de automatización. Prueba y valida la automatización. Implementa la automatización y monitorea su desempe?o.

If you do not involve your team, the forecast will sit on the shelf picking up dust. The most impactful forecasts are ones where people around the business interact and use them to help with decision making. So adopting an 'end-to-end' collaborative approach can be a game changer!

O engajamento de toda equipe é um ponto extremamente relevante para elabora??o de um Forecast. A participa??o da equipe seja na tomada de informa??es para abastecimento do sistema, seja na análise dos relatórios gerenciais e seja na tomada de a??o corretiva para seus planos de a??o. Esse é o primeiro ponto para se ter sucesso e assertividade nas previs?es. Em segundo ponto posso apontar o alinhamento com o Planejamento Estratégico da Empresa afim de alcan?ar objetivos macros pré estabelecidos pela Diretoria e C-Levels.

I think it is important to find a fine balance. You need to monitor and see how your performance is developing in line with your forecasts. But at the same time you don't want to live in your forecasts in analysis overload. Every business comes with its own set of circumstances, but be sure to ensure your monitoring process effectively fits those circumstances!

Regularly tracking performance metrics enables swift adaptations to changing conditions. Whether in business or personal development, this practice ensures that strategies stay responsive and goals remain achievable, enhancing the effectiveness of a dynamic rolling forecast.

Ensure that the data used in the forecast is of high quality and well-integrated from various sources. Data inconsistencies can lead to inaccurate forecasts.

Mais do que monitorar, entender seu cenário atual e tomar as a??es para o atingimento dos seus objetivos é indispensável. Vivemos em um mundo dinamico, onde o cenário muda constantemente. Surgem novas informa??es, os planos n?o surtem o efeito esperado, muda o cenário econ?mico... N?o importa o motivo, saber monitorar e se adaptar (rápido) é essencial para a sobrevivência e o sucesso de qualquer organiza??o.

Align the rolling forecast with the company's strategic goals and initiatives. This ensures that financial forecasting is not just a numerical exercise, but a strategic tool to guide the business towards its long-term objectives.

Regularly review and refine the forecasting process. Learn from past forecasting errors and continuously look for ways to improve accuracy and relevance.

Creating a rolling forecast involves several key considerations to ensure it effectively supports your business strategy: Define clear objectives for the forecast, ensuring it aligns with strategic goals and supports agile decision-making. Benefit from the adaptability and relevance that rolling forecasts provide by continuously updating financial plans. Use up-to-date insights for informed decision-making and scenario planning to manage risks. Identify and focus on the main business drivers and clearly state underlying assumptions for accuracy. Decide on the update frequency (usually monthly or quarterly) and the forecast horizon (commonly 12-18 months) to balance visibility with manageability.