The Changing Midterm Election Picture

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The midterms are now two months away.?Here’s an update on where things stand.?

In April, the GOP was poised for big gains?in the House and in a good position to win enough seats to take control of the Senate.?Meanwhile, Democrats were struggling with an unpopular president and sky-high inflation.

Now, things are looking better for Democrats.?

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According to one polling aggregator, Democrats are now tied with the GOP on the generic ballot - a rough measure?of the party voters would prefer to control the House - compared with a roughly five-point deficit in April.?They have also gained momentum in key Senate races.?

What changed? In two words: abortion and inflation.

The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade has energized rank-and-file Democratic voters.

And inflation has started to ease , though it remains historically high. Most important,?gas prices have fallen from record highs this summer.?

Another factor: Donald Trump’s legal woes.?Republicans are now on the defensive regarding President Trump, when they’d rather focus on President Biden.

Biden’s approval rating has rebounded a bit, but still remains in the low 40s.?As a result, it’s increasingly likely control of the next Congress will be split.?

We anticipate that Republicans will still take back control of the House

Republicans will likely net fewer seats than initially expected…15, versus 25 in April.

Recent Democratic victories in House special elections suggest the political winds are shifting in the party’s favor, though not enough to avoid losing the lower chamber.?

Control of the Senate is still up in the air.

Democrats have an opportunity?not just to hold on to their majority, but expand on it, with a few lucky breaks.?

Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) leads TV physician Mehmet Oz (R),?looks like the best opportunity for a Democratic pickup. Wisconsin is also in play. Even North Carolina and Ohio don’t look like the easy GOP victories that were initially expected.?

By contrast, Democrats have gotten lucky in states where they must defend seats.?Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire are all competitive, to varying degrees. But Republicans have, in many cases, struggled with flawed candidates and lackluster fund-raising.?

A few caveats to consider.

First, the political environment could change between now and November, so don’t take this as our final word on the matter.?

Second, the 2022 midterms will likely see higher-than-normal turnout,?similar to 2018, which was the highest-turnout midterm election year since 1914.?If this pattern continues, it will change what’s considered a normal midterm result.

Normally, the president’s party loses seats in both chambers during the midterms,?but perhaps higher turnout will result in split control of Congress more frequently.?

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