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What do you do if your decision-making in Lean Manufacturing is influenced by biases?

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Lean manufacturing is a philosophy and a set of practices that aim to eliminate waste, improve quality, and increase customer satisfaction. However, even the most experienced lean practitioners can fall prey to biases that affect their decision-making and hinder their performance. Biases are mental shortcuts or assumptions that distort our perception of reality and influence our choices, often unconsciously. In this article, we will explore some of the common biases that can affect lean manufacturing, and how to overcome them.

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Rimberg Tavares

Coordenador de Produ??o | Engenheiro de Excelência Operacional | Master Black Belt Lean Six Sigma | Gerente de Projetos…
Sudipta Banerjee

In Pursuit of Excellence
Juliano Anjos

Especialista em Qualidade, Lean, Projetos, Processos e Pessoas |??LinkedIn…

1 Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms our existing beliefs or preferences, while ignoring or rejecting evidence that contradicts them. For example, if you are convinced that a certain process is the best way to achieve a lean goal, you might ignore feedback from customers or employees that suggest otherwise, or only focus on the positive outcomes and overlook the negative ones. This can lead to overconfidence, resistance to change, and poor problem-solving. To avoid confirmation bias, you should actively seek out different perspectives, challenge your assumptions, and test your hypotheses with data and experiments.

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Rimberg Tavares

Coordenador de Produ??o | Engenheiro de Excelência Operacional | Master Black Belt Lean Six Sigma | Gerente de Projetos | PMP? | Especialista WCM & TPM | Consultor de Gest?o
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é necessário mapear as perdas do processo para evitar o viés da confirma??o. é natural que as pessoas tendam a querer atuar em máquinas ou áreas que elas tem o sentimento de ser improdutivas ou com base em informa??es n?o registradas. Inicie um registro de paradas de máquina por quebra, absenteísmo, falta de material, paradas programadas e outros motivos. Procure detalhar ao máximo as informa??es e manter um histórico das perdas. A partir desses dados identifique onde est?o os maiores ofensores do seu processo e direcione suas a??es com base em fatos e dados.

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Sudipta Banerjee

In Pursuit of Excellence
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To mitigate risks associated with "Confirmation Bias" we should encourage open-mindedness, data-driven decision-making, and diverse perspectives within teams. We need to promote a culture of constructive criticism, continuous learning, and experimentation to challenge assumptions and validate ideas objectively.

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Thiago Loretti, M.Sc

Gerente de Qualidade, Sustentabilidade e Processos | Professor Lato Sensu na Funda??o Assis Gurgacz | Mestre em Sistemas Produtivos | Pesquisador de Kaizen | Master Black Belt | Auditor Líder ISO 9001 e 14001
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Se sua tomada de decis?o em Lean Manufacturing estiver sendo influenciada por vieses, é importante reconhecer e abordar essas influências para garantir decis?es mais eficazes. Primeiramente, conscientize-se sobre os diferentes tipos de vieses cognitivos que podem estar afetando suas decis?es. Em seguida, adote práticas que ajudem a mitigar esses vieses, como a coleta de dados objetivos e a análise racional das informa??es disponíveis. Promova uma cultura organizacional que valorize a diversidade de perspectivas e encoraje o questionamento crítico. Considere também a implementa??o de sistemas de controle de qualidade e revis?o por pares para validar decis?es importantes. Por fim, esteja aberto ao feedback e à aprendizagem contínua.

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2 Anchoring bias

Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely too much on the first piece of information we receive when making decisions, and adjust our subsequent judgments based on that initial anchor. For example, if you are presented with a budget estimate for a lean project, you might base your expectations and negotiations on that figure, even if it is inaccurate or irrelevant. This can lead to missed opportunities, wasted resources, and suboptimal outcomes. To avoid anchoring bias, you should gather more information from multiple sources, compare different options, and question the validity and relevance of the anchor.

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Sudipta Banerjee

In Pursuit of Excellence
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To mitigate risks associated with "Anchoring Bias" we should encourage dynamic goal-setting based on real-time data, performance trends, and continuous improvement goals. Conduct regular reviews and adjustments to targets, benchmarks, and process standards based on evolving needs and market conditions.

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3 Availability bias

Availability bias is the tendency to judge the likelihood or frequency of an event based on how easily we can recall examples from our memory, rather than on objective data or statistics. For example, if you have recently witnessed a machine breakdown or a quality defect, you might overestimate the probability of those occurrences happening again, and allocate more resources or attention to prevent them, while neglecting other areas of improvement. This can lead to skewed priorities, inefficient resource allocation, and inaccurate risk assessment. To avoid availability bias, you should rely on facts and figures, rather than anecdotes and impressions, and use tools such as Pareto charts or fishbone diagrams to identify the root causes and effects of problems.

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Sudipta Banerjee

In Pursuit of Excellence
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To mitigate risks associated with " Availability Bias" we should promote systematic problem-solving approaches such as root cause analysis (5 Whys, Fishbone diagrams) to identify underlying issues driving recurring problems. Encourage data-driven decision-making based on historical trends, performance metrics, and benchmarking data rather than anecdotal evidence alone.

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4 Framing bias

Framing bias is the tendency to be influenced by the way information is presented, rather than by its actual content or value. For example, if you are offered a choice between a 10% discount or a 5% surcharge on a lean service, you might prefer the former option, even though they are mathematically equivalent. This is because the discount sounds more appealing and positive, while the surcharge sounds more negative and aversive. This can lead to irrational choices, distorted preferences, and lower satisfaction. To avoid framing bias, you should focus on the substance and implications of the information, rather than on its wording or format, and use tools such as cost-benefit analysis or decision matrix to evaluate alternatives objectively.

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Rimberg Tavares

Coordenador de Produ??o | Engenheiro de Excelência Operacional | Master Black Belt Lean Six Sigma | Gerente de Projetos | PMP? | Especialista WCM & TPM | Consultor de Gest?o
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A análise de custo-benefício é essencial para evitar tomadas de decis?o erradas. Avalie bem quais s?o os custos de cada projeto, levando em considera??o que o plano de a??o está de fato coerente para atuar na causa raiz das perdas. Tenha claro qual KPI será monitorado e qual a meta estabelecida, para prever o benefício que esse projeto trará, qual o ganho a partir do alcance dessa meta. Você pode priorizar os projetos e a??es utilizando um diagrama de Impacto, Custo e Facilidade, direcionando esfor?os para a??es de alto impacto no indicador, baixo custo e maior facilidade de atua??o.

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5 Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe, after an outcome is known, that we could have predicted or prevented it beforehand, or that it was inevitable or obvious. For example, if a lean initiative fails or succeeds, you might think that you knew it all along, or that there was no other possible outcome, and ignore the factors or uncertainties that influenced the result. This can lead to overconfidence, complacency, or regret, and hinder learning and improvement. To avoid hindsight bias, you should document and review your decision-making process, acknowledge and learn from your mistakes, and celebrate and replicate your successes.

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6 Groupthink bias

Groupthink bias is the tendency to conform to the opinions or behaviors of others in a group, especially when there is pressure to achieve consensus, harmony, or loyalty. For example, if you are part of a lean team or organization, you might agree with the majority view or the leader's direction, even if you have doubts or objections, or suppress or dismiss dissenting voices, to avoid conflict or criticism. This can lead to poor decisions, reduced creativity, and increased errors. To avoid groupthink bias, you should encourage diversity, openness, and constructive feedback, and use tools such as brainstorming, nominal group technique, or devil's advocacy to generate and evaluate ideas.

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Juliano Anjos

Especialista em Qualidade, Lean, Projetos, Processos e Pessoas |??LinkedIn Top Voice | LSSBB? | Excelência Operacional/Automotiva | Auditor ISO/IATF/BIQS
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Como primeira a??o, a conscientiza??o e reconhecimento, para o grupo estar ciente de sua existência e reconhecer quando est?o afetando suas decis?es, incentivando a diversidade de opini?es, promovendo um ambiente onde diferentes perspectivas e opini?es sejam valorizadas e encorajadas. Isso pode envolver a forma??o de equipes multidisciplinares ou a busca ativa por feedback de diversas fontes. Em u Grupo, devemos buscar fomentar a abertura e o feedback construtivo, criando um ambiente onde os membros da equipe se sintam à vontade para expressar suas opini?es e preocupa??es sem medo de críticas ou represálias, e encorajando o feedback construtivo e aberto a considerar pontos de vista diferentes.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Sudipta Banerjee

In Pursuit of Excellence
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We should also consider "Status Quo Bias": This emanates from the preference for maintaining current states or existing processes due to familiarity, comfort, or aversion to change, even when change could lead to improvements. Impact: This could lead to resistance to implementing new Lean practices, adopting innovative technologies, or reengineering processes for greater efficiency and quality. Strategy: Here we should promote a culture of continuous improvement and Kaizen by incentivizing and recognizing efforts to challenge the status quo, experiment with new ideas, and embrace change as a catalyst for improvement.

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What do you do if your decision-making in Lean Manufacturing is influenced by biases?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Confirmation bias

2 Anchoring bias

3 Availability bias

4 Framing bias

5 Hindsight bias

6 Groupthink bias

7 Here’s what else to consider

Lean Manufacturing

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What do you do if your decision-making in Lean Manufacturing is influenced by biases?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Confirmation bias

2 Anchoring bias

3 Availability bias

4 Framing bias

5 Hindsight bias

6 Groupthink bias

7 Here’s what else to consider

Lean Manufacturing

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