What are the best ways to predict market cycles and turning points using TA?

Trend is most crucial part in trading, and it help us to increase the accuracy. If trend is same on all the time frames, then there are more chances that it will in the direction of trend. There are multiple indicators to identify the trend but the most useful technique is "Advance trend analysis" used in Demand and supply theory.

Know the trend. Trade the trend. To do this: 1) Gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics by studying concepts like Price Action, the Elliott Wave Theory, or other relevant theories. 2) Once you’ve understood those theories, find indicators that reflect the theory you’ve learned. Build a trading strategy based on this understanding. 3) Trade on high timeframes like 4H or Daily to reduce the noise.

There are many approach to finding trend a stock/market is currently in. While drawing a trend line is one basic & widely used approach, where the trend line is supposed to have 3 or more touch points with the price chart, & it gives a fair idea whether stock is up/down trending or sideways. There are several Traders who have worked on stages of a stock, one being Stan Weinstein in his book 'Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Market'. Here he breaks down stock's move in 4 stages. Stage 1 being sideways stage with low volumes. Stage 2 is the uptrend phase where stock moves up making several bases. At its onset the fundamentals would be mostly negative. Stage 3 is volatile sideways move with larger volumes. Stage 4 is the declining phase.

Trend trading is a well-known investment strategy used by many investors in different markets such as stocks, forex, and commodities. Investors who adopt this strategy aim to benefit from the movement of price momentum in a specific path called a trend. This strategy is based on the adage “the trend is your friend.” Traders look for patterns and signals that indicate that a trend is just starting or will continue, and then they try to profit from that movement.

It's important to use a combination of a few tools and other factors like market sentiment, economic conditions, and geopolitical events. In addition, use risk management strategies to mitigate potential losses. It is important to remember that no method guarantees success, and markets can be unpredictable and volatile A trader often uses a combination of technical and fundamental analysis with his experience and intuition.

If we talk about candlestick chart, we can easily identify the repeatable patterns in candlestick chart. These patterns repeat not in just one scrip, but same patterns can be observed in multiple scrips. By seeing those patterns on higher to lower timeframe TA can anticipate the future price action or move. The move is depending on the pattern that is formed in recent past, whether it is cycle change or price reversal.

Pattern recognition is yet another way to predict stock's direction. However patterns don't drive the stock but they are created as a result of the move of a stock itself. It's classic supply demand in play. It can be broken down to analyze the psychology of traders. For eg-a cup & handle-Stocks show cup patterns during intermediate declines in general market since buyers are trapped having it bought at a higher price and they will wait patiently to let it come at cost. Once it is nearing the cost, few will exit making a handle like formation on low volumes (as they will be retailers). Once all weak hands are out & the volumes are low (meaning supply is very less in the market), even a small demand in the stock will bring in a big move now.

The detection of forms or configurations in price charts and other market data is referred to as pattern recognition in technical analysis (TA). Traders employ pattern recognition to forecast future price movements based on previous patterns that have demonstrated a proclivity to recur. These patterns can take various shapes and are frequently related to certain market behaviors. few types of patterns.Head and Shoulders. Double Tops and Bottoms. Candlestick Patterns. Fibonacci Patterns. and few others . Most importantly, Pattern recognition is not foolproof, and the interpretation of patterns involves an element of subjectivity.

Pattern recognition in trading is like a detective looking for clues. It's about spotting shapes on price charts that hint at what the market might do next. These patterns are like the markets language, showing what traders are thinking and feeling. There are two main types: reversal patterns, which signal a trend might flip, and continuation patterns, suggesting the trend will keep going after a brief pause. But remember, patterns are more art than science. They don't always predict the future accurately - they're just one tool among many. It's like predicting weather: you can see signs, but surprises can still happen.

Pattern Recognition is the another way to predict the stock behaviours, But pattern doesn't drive a stock in any time frame, But we can say that it will helpful to get more accuracy in trading and TA. Some patterns are follows the trend and some are reversals pattern. So we need to understand what kind of pattern has been form on charts and trade according it

Indicators are laggards and follow price action. Price move and volume shapes an indicator but psychology of traders are such that rather than following price they follow indicator at certain critical points and hence indicators seem to work.

Indicator analysis in trading is like using a weather forecast to plan a day out. It uses mathematical calculations from past price and volume data to give insights into market trends. There are two types: leading indicators: predicting future moves and lagging indicators: confirming past trends. Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be considered as a thermometer for the market's momentum, showing if it's overheated/overbought or too cold/oversold. If RSI disagrees with the current price trend, it's like a weather forecast predicting a change. but just like weather forecasts, indicators are not always right. They are guides not guarantees. As traders often say markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Being a technical analyst, I use EMAs, RSI as mathematical indicators in the combination of some strong pattern. I don't use indicators alone for buying or selling, i use them for an extra confirmation. If we use them alone, they don't perform well but with other patterns they give amazing results.

Indicators are laggards and follows price of particular stock, We can say it is lagging indicators that follows the price in the end Price has been specific weight, But using indicators we can find the trends in bigger time frame (TF), using 200 EMA (exponential moving average) we can check the trend of stock or any script using it in bigger time frame like daily, weekly or monthly

Use oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the stochastic oscillator to identify overbought or oversold conditions. Divergence between price and oscillator readings can be a potential signal of a market reversal. Apply Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential reversal zones based on the golden ratio. Traders often look for price reactions at these levels.

While we are doing research about a stock or index, we cannot ignore multiple timeframe analysis. On all the time frame price must be suggest same thing.

Time frame is the key element of technical analysis (TA), Its clearly shows the trend of of any stock or market. many investors uses bigger time frame to invest in Stocks, But some how day traders are uses bigger time frame to identify the trend and they will trade accordingly in smaller time frame, It will help then to gain more accuracy in over period of time in technical analysis

I suggest avoiding to trade on lower timeframes. Why? - it's noisy - less wins - less time to analyze I instead suggest trading on 4H and above. The same effort you put into lower timeframes will give you a better reward on a higher timeframe. You can analyze all the way down to the lowest timeframes to confirm your trade. Analyzing on lower timeframes is fine. Just don't trade on them. Trade on higher timeframes. P.S. What timeframe do you trade on?

Use time-based analysis, such as cycle analysis or Gann angles, to identify potential turning points. Monitor market sentiment through indicators like the put/call ratio or sentiment surveys. Extreme sentiment levels can sometimes precede market reversals.

One of the most difficult parts of trading is keeping the profits you make. Managing your risk helps you with that. Here are 2 simple ways of doing that: 1) Always take risk that your account can handle. 2) If you're losing 30% of your profits, stop trading. (You can change the 30% to what you're comfortable with) P.S. What does your lot size look like?

losing money in market without risk management are the common things in retails trading, Buy big players always use there risk management process. They did not dive into the stock in FOMO. they always use there capital by using risk management. Main thing in technical analysis is STOP-LOSS, use it or they will use you

Risk management is the key to become a successful trader in stock market. For managing the risk, we must fix Entry, stop loss and target before taking the trade.

En el mercado de alta volatilidad, traducido en alto riesgo la gestión no es esencial, es necesaria y obligatoria. Antes de realizar un análisis financiero para inversión se necesita entender cual es tu aversión al riesgo, eso te separa de la incertidumbre y de ser un simple especulador.

Risk to reward and position sizing is different and based on backtested data. If the probability of an event in your favor is more than 90%, you can deploy up to your 75% capital in such a strategy, and can also stay profitable with 5 risk : 1 reward. For example if you make 10 diversified investments you will make 9 rewards, and -5 risk, so end up with net +4 If the probability of an event in your favor is more than 70%, you can deploy up to your 40% capital in such a strategy, and can also stay profitable with 1 risk : 1 reward. For example if you make 10 diversified investments you will make 7 rewards and -3 risk, so end up with net +4 Continue in the next thread ...

Consider economic indicators, such as employment data or GDP, to understand broader market trends. Study candlestick patterns to understand market sentiment. Use technical analysis to determine when placing the trade and fundamental analysis to decide what to trade.

Market cycles are long term and are usually labeled as bull or bear markets. It is important to understand which cycle you are in to trade accordingly. If the market is in a bull cycle, the basic trend is upwards and your bias should be more focused on establishing long positions at attractive prices versus initiating short positions. These cycles can be best determined by using long term indicators, such as a 200 day moving average. There can be many trends - up or down - within a market cycle. These can be successfully traded utilizing shorter term indicators. The key is to know what overall cycle you are in and then to take advantage of the trends within these cycles, always with a bias to following the overall cycle.