What are the best ways to communicate assumptions and uncertainties in decision analysis?

1 Use clear and consistent language

One of the most important ways to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use clear and consistent language that avoids ambiguity, confusion, and misinterpretation. Define your terms, explain your symbols, and state your units. Use simple and direct sentences that convey your meaning without jargon or technicalities. For example, instead of saying "the probability of success is 0.8", say "we assume that 80% of the projects will achieve their goals". Similarly, instead of saying "the variance of the cost is 100", say "the cost may vary by plus or minus 10 units around the mean".

2 Use visual aids and formats

Another way to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use visual aids and formats that enhance your message and illustrate your points. Use graphs, charts, tables, diagrams, and icons that show the relationships, trends, and distributions of your data and models. Use colors, shapes, and sizes that highlight the key features and differences. Use labels, legends, and captions that explain your visual aids and formats. For example, use a tornado diagram to show the sensitivity of your decision to different assumptions, or use a probability tree to show the possible scenarios and outcomes.

3 Use scenarios and narratives

A third way to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use scenarios and narratives that tell a story and engage your audience. Use scenarios and narratives that describe the context, the alternatives, the criteria, and the consequences of your decision. Use scenarios and narratives that show how your assumptions and uncertainties affect your decision and its implications. Use scenarios and narratives that appeal to the emotions, values, and goals of your audience. For example, use a success story to show how your decision helped a client solve a problem, or use a cautionary tale to show how ignoring uncertainties led to a bad outcome.

4 Use feedback and dialogue

A fourth way to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use feedback and dialogue that invite questions, comments, and suggestions from your audience. Use feedback and dialogue that demonstrate your openness, honesty, and willingness to learn. Use feedback and dialogue that clarify your assumptions and uncertainties, address concerns and objections, and explore alternatives and improvements. Use feedback and dialogue that build trust, rapport, and collaboration with your audience. For example, use a survey to collect feedback on your decision analysis, or use a workshop to facilitate dialogue with your stakeholders.

5 Use validation and verification

A fifth way to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use validation and verification that show the quality, reliability, and accuracy of your decision analysis. Use validation and verification that test your data, models, and logic against reality, evidence, and standards. Use validation and verification that identify the sources, limits, and impacts of your assumptions and uncertainties. Use validation and verification that report your results, errors, and confidence intervals. For example, use a pilot study to validate your data, or use a peer review to verify your model.

6 Use education and training

A sixth way to communicate assumptions and uncertainties is to use education and training that teach your audience the principles, methods, and tools of decision analysis. Use education and training that explain the benefits, challenges, and best practices of decision analysis. Use education and training that demonstrate how to apply decision analysis to different situations, problems, and goals. Use education and training that develop the skills, knowledge, and attitudes of your audience. For example, use a webinar to educate your clients on decision analysis, or use a course to train your peers on decision analysis.