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What is the best way to forecast revenue and expenses for a new program?

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Forecasting revenue and expenses for a new program is a crucial skill for any program manager. It helps you plan, monitor, and evaluate the performance and impact of your program. However, forecasting can also be challenging, especially when you have to deal with uncertainty, complexity, and change. How can you create reliable and realistic forecasts that support your program goals and align with your stakeholders' expectations? Here are some tips and best practices to help you.

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1 Understand the scope and purpose of your program

Before you start forecasting, you need to have a clear vision of what your program is, why it exists, and what it aims to achieve. You should also define the scope and boundaries of your program, including the expected outputs, outcomes, and benefits. This will help you identify the sources of revenue and the categories of expenses that are relevant to your program. It will also help you align your forecasts with your program strategy and objectives.

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Navdeep Malik

Program Management Leader | LinkedIn Top 1% PM Voice | Forbes Technology Council | AI and Digital Transformation I Judge I Mentor I Speaker I IEEE Sr. Member I IETE Fellow
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Begin by gathering historical data from similar programs or industry benchmarks and follow below steps: Develop a comprehensive budget that outlines where your program's revenue will come from and what expenses you anticipate. Be realistic and consider potential risks. Collaborate with financial experts, key stakeholders, and subject matter experts to ensure your forecasts are well-informed and balanced. Consider using financial modeling tools to simulate different scenarios and assess how factors like market changes or unexpected expenses might affect your budget. Continuously monitor your actual revenue and expenses, and compare them to your forecasts. Adjust your predictions as needed to stay on track and adapt to changes.

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Sushma Aradhya

Head Of Sourcing
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The best way to forecast revenue and expenses for a new program involves a strategic blend of thorough market research, financial modeling, clear documentation of assumptions, collaboration with experts, and continuous adjustments based on real-time feedback and performance metrics. Regularly revisiting and refining forecasts ensures adaptability to changing market conditions and enhances the accuracy of financial projections.

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Donna K.

CDSQ - Chief Disruptor of the Status Quo ?? Tailored Solutions to Complex & Expensive Problems for Fully Funded Start-ups and Fortune 500s?? Each day is a decision. Do you make excuses, or do you make progress?
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The cornerstone of forecasting revenue for a program is identifying vision, purpose, and scope. This enhances the program sponsors and manager to focus on realistic KPI's and their relevant outcomes.

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2 Gather and analyze data and information

To forecast revenue and expenses, you need to collect and analyze data and information from various sources, such as historical records, market research, industry trends, stakeholder feedback, and expert opinions. You should use both quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the current and future conditions that affect your program. You should also consider different scenarios and assumptions that may impact your forecasts, such as risks, opportunities, and changes in the external or internal environment.

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Donna K.

CDSQ - Chief Disruptor of the Status Quo ?? Tailored Solutions to Complex & Expensive Problems for Fully Funded Start-ups and Fortune 500s?? Each day is a decision. Do you make excuses, or do you make progress?
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Gathering and analyzing data is a necessity but even more importantly, what data and information do you believe is relevant? Have you polled the program sponsors and asked them if the data and information you believe relevant to gather and analyze aligns with their thinking and strategy? This is first and foremost in the analysis exercise. Otherwise, you may end up with a right answer to a wrong question.

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3 Use appropriate tools and techniques

There are many tools and techniques you can use to forecast revenue and expenses for your program, depending on the nature, size, and complexity. Spreadsheet models, such as Excel, can be used to create formulas, tables, charts, and graphs that show projections. Statistical methods, using software like R or SPSS, can apply mathematical and statistical models to analyze data and generate forecasts. Additionally, judgmental methods like Delphi or brainstorming can be used to elicit and aggregate opinions of experts and stakeholders who have relevant knowledge. NPV, IRR, ROI, confidence intervals, standard errors, and sensitivity analysis are all useful tools to measure the accuracy and reliability of your forecasts.

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Karthikeyan Allimuthu
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Based on the scope/objective of your program align with Sales/Clients/PO to have a clear under understanding on the forecasted outcome in terms of revenue , growth, benefits and road map. Work with your architects, technical heads/leads on the solutioning part, ensure you are highlighting the ballpark estimate(cost, resources, time line required etc), assumptions , RAID, risk factors and initiate the continuous iterations of your requirement greening sessions with stake holders. Ensure you are in alignment with HR, Infra team on resource and required s/w readiness. Prepare Daily/Weekly meetings to keep the Sales/Client/management on ongoing workaround, share the captured MOM/RISK/RAID until SOW is signed and project kickoff takes place.

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Keith Lorino

Accounting Professional with 10+ years Excel experience, 4+ years of tax and accounting with emphasis on analysis.
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Benchmarking doing comparison of organizations within the industry and do P E S Y E L Analysis and a swot analysis then do a comparison of historical epens3s and revenues from 3 to 5 years

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4 Communicate and update your forecasts

Once you have created your forecasts, you need to communicate them effectively to your stakeholders, such as sponsors, clients, partners, and team members. You should present your forecasts in a clear, concise, and transparent way, using visual aids, such as dashboards, reports, or presentations. You should also explain the assumptions, methods, and limitations of your forecasts, and how they relate to your program goals and strategy. Moreover, you should update your forecasts regularly, based on new data, information, or feedback, and report any significant changes or deviations from your original forecasts.

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5 Learn and improve your forecasting skills

Finally, you should always seek to learn and improve your forecasting skills, as they are essential for your program success. You should monitor and evaluate your forecasts against your actual revenue and expenses, and identify any gaps, errors, or biases that may affect your forecasts. You should also solicit and incorporate feedback from your stakeholders, and learn from your peers and mentors who have more experience or expertise in forecasting. You should also keep abreast of the latest tools, techniques, and best practices in forecasting, and apply them to your program context.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Saadeh Hammoudeh

Independent Development Consultant in : Strategic Planning Monitoring & Evaluation Project Management& Management Reform
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In fact it depend on the nature of the project is it profit project then one could forcaste based on different known financial analysis including balance sheet; income statment, IRR etc. Or non-profit project where one could calculate the expences based on the action plan. Then the revenue will be expressed in term of degree of achievement of the set out objectives and goals through adopting M&E system for example.

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What is the best way to forecast revenue and expenses for a new program?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Understand the scope and purpose of your program

2 Gather and analyze data and information

3 Use appropriate tools and techniques

4 Communicate and update your forecasts

5 Learn and improve your forecasting skills

6 Here’s what else to consider

Program Management

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What is the best way to forecast revenue and expenses for a new program?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Understand the scope and purpose of your program

2 Gather and analyze data and information

3 Use appropriate tools and techniques

4 Communicate and update your forecasts

5 Learn and improve your forecasting skills

6 Here’s what else to consider

Program Management

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