What are the best practices for forecasting future HR needs?

1 Define your objectives

Before you start forecasting, you need to have a clear idea of what you want to achieve with your HR planning. What are your short-term and long-term goals? What are the external and internal factors that may affect your HR demand and supply? How do you measure your HR performance and outcomes? By defining your objectives, you can set the scope, direction, and criteria for your forecasting process.

2 Choose your methods

When forecasting future HR needs, there are several methods to consider depending on the desired level of detail, accuracy, and complexity. Trend analysis uses historical data and statistical techniques to project future HR needs based on past patterns and trends. Ratio analysis calculates future HR needs based on the relationship between HR variables and other business variables. Judgmental methods rely on the opinions and judgments of experts, managers, or employees to forecast future HR needs using techniques such as Delphi method, nominal group technique, or scenario planning. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages so it is important to consider which one best suits your needs.

3 Collect and analyze data

Once you have chosen your methods, you need to collect and analyze the relevant data that will inform your forecasting. This should include both quantitative and qualitative data, such as HR data on headcount, turnover, retention, productivity, performance, skills, competencies, diversity; business data on sales, revenue, market share, customer satisfaction, growth, innovation; and environmental data on external factors like economic, social, political, legal, technological, competitive influences. To collect and analyze this data you can use various sources and tools such as surveys, interviews, focus groups, observations, reports, databases and software. Be sure to ensure the reliability, validity, relevancy and consistency of the data.

4 Identify gaps and surpluses

After you have collected and analyzed the data, you need to compare your projected HR demand and supply to identify the gaps and surpluses that may exist. A gap occurs when your HR demand exceeds your HR supply, meaning that you have a shortage of employees or skills. A surplus occurs when your HR supply exceeds your HR demand, meaning that you have an excess of employees or skills. You should quantify and prioritize the gaps and surpluses based on their impact and urgency.

5 Develop and implement action plans

The final step of forecasting future HR needs is to develop and implement action plans that will address the gaps and surpluses that you have identified. You should consider the costs, benefits, risks, and feasibility of each action, as well as the alignment with your objectives and strategies. Possible actions could include recruitment, training, retention, succession, redeployment, and downsizing. Recruitment involves attracting and hiring new employees to fill the gaps in your HR demand. Training involves developing and enhancing the skills and competencies of your existing or new employees to meet the changing HR demand. Retention involves implementing policies and practices that foster employee engagement, satisfaction, loyalty, and performance. Succession involves preparing and developing your existing employees to take over key positions or roles in the future. Redeployment involves transferring or reassigning your existing employees to different units, locations, or functions to balance the HR supply and demand. Downsizing involves reducing or eliminating your existing employees to eliminate the surpluses in your HR supply. By following these best practices, you can ensure that you have the right people in the right place at the right time to achieve your organizational goals and strategies with efficiency and effectiveness.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?