How do you use historical data and lessons learned to improve your cost forecasting skills?

"???????????? ???????? ????????????, ?????? ???????? ???????? ????????????????." Accurate cost forecasting isn't a crystal ball, it's built on the solid foundation of past projects. ???????????? ???????? ??????????????????:Collect all relevant data: costs, timelines, resources, quality, performance. Use tools that work for you! ?????????????? ?????? ??????: Decode patterns, identify trends, variances. Which factors impacted costs? Which teams outperformed? Uncover hidden correlations. ?????????????????? ???????? ??????????????: Use insights to adjust forecasting models. ??????'?? ???????? ???????? ????????:Continuously update data, integrate lessons learned, share with your team. More shared data, more accurate collective forecasting.

To my understanding, own experience and records from previous projects are excellent sources of data for cost estimation. Historical data can assist in identifying the primary cost drivers, average duration and effort, common risks and issues, and actual performance and outcomes of similar projects.

Certainly! In my short journey, leveraging historical data in cost forecasting is pivotal for project management success. Through comprehensive data analysis, predictive modelling, and continuous refinement of estimation managers, project controls managers and board members can enhance their ability to forecast costs accurately. This process not only enables proactive risk management but also fosters continuous improvement within the organization. By documenting insights and sharing knowledge, teams can collectively learn from past experiences, leading to more informed decision-making and better project outcomes in the future.

Analyzing historical data and lessons learned provides insights into past project performance, identifying trends, cost drivers, and areas for improvement. By studying similar projects, one can refine cost estimation methods, adjust for inflation, and anticipate potential risks. Incorporating past mistakes and successes enhances forecasting accuracy, informs contingency planning, and enables better resource allocation, ultimately leading to more reliable cost predictions and improved project outcomes.

"???????????? ???????? ????????????, ?????? ???????? ???????? ????????????????." History isn't just a record, it's a teacher. To truly master cost forecasting, we need to learn from the successes and stumbles of past projects. Transform lessons learned into cost forecasting gold: ???????????? ??????????????: Don't lose insights! Use reports, surveys, even workshops. Capture surprises, cost-saving strategies - document everything! ?????? ????????????: Go beyond numbers, ask "why?". Understand root causes of cost changes, avoid repeating mistakes ???????????? ???????? ??????????????:Use lessons to refine models. Unexpected delays? Add buffer. ???????? ????????????????: Lessons evolve. Stay open to new insights, adapt forecasting as needed

"???????????? ???????? ????????????, ?????? ???????? ???????? ????????????????." Cost forecasting isn't about predictions, it's about continuous refinement.Ensure your forecasts stay on track. ???????????? ???????? ???????????????????? ?????????? ????????????: Analogous: Leverage past project similarities Bottom-Up: Calculate individual cost components Three-Point: Consider best/worst/likely scenarios ?????????????? ??????????????????????: Sensitivity Analysis: Explore how changes impact costs Contingency Analysis: Allocate reserves for risks ?????????????? ?????? ??????????: Variance Analysis: Compare actual vs. forecast costs Earned Value Analysis: Track project performance vs. budget Tend Analysis: Anticipate future cost fluctuations

"???????????? ???????? ????????????, ?????? ???????? ???????? ????????????????." ???????? ?????? ??????????????, ?????? ???????? ?????? ??????????????????????:Visualize your forecast with charts, graphs, or dashboards. Share assumptions and data sources for transparency. ?????????????? ????????????????: Encourage input via feedback forms, meetings, or emails. Diverse perspectives refine the forecast. ?????????? ?????? ???????????????? ????????????????: Review the forecast as a team, ensuring alignment with project goals and expectations. ?????????????????????? ??????????????????, ?????????? ???????? ????????????:Keep everyone informed of updates and adjustments. Address changes collaboratively. shared knowledge is shared power.

Review Review Review! You can't forecast accurately without knowing the historical spend inside and out. Get feedback from stakeholders on what's changing in the future as well.

Environmental factors such as inflation and supply chain issues should be considered especially after what we saw with Covid. More importantly, management innovation through self imported work teams unveil many costs from activities which add no value to the product or service. Innovations from every level of the organization can and often do provide a realizable competitive edge saving both cost by you and your customers.

While I strongly emphasize the importance of utilizing historical data & lessons learned for making informed decisions and improving cost forecasting, I also recommend the adoption of Zero-Based Budgeting. This approach entails starting the budgeting process from scratch each year and necessitates the justification of all expenses, irrespective of their occurrence in the previous year. Zero-Based Budgeting may be more time-consuming than traditional budgeting methods, but can lead to more accurate and realistic budgets. Zero-Based Budgeting compels managers to think critically about expenses, enabling the identification of new areas for improvement.