How do you select and prioritize the most relevant and actionable scenarios for your organization?

I think identifying your focal question is essential in selecting and prioritizing scenarios. Start by clarifying the main challenge or issue your organization needs to tackle. Ensure it aligns well with your goals and provides a foundation for exploring various future possibilities. It should encourage open-ended exploration rather than pointing to a fixed answer. This way, you're better prepared to adapt and innovate in response to emerging trends and changes.

It's critical that you identify scenarios, which would wreak havoc to your business should they occur. To determine the right scenarios to build-out, think of situations that have impact on your markets, your customers, your staffing and other key stakeholders (i.e., investors, suppliers, distributors, etc.). Look at the value chain and see where vulnerabilities my lurk -- It's those areas when solid scenario plans are needed to help you better manage risk.

When I choose the most important situations for my group, I first scan our surroundings. I look for big trends that could impact our goals. These include changes in society, technology, economy, environment, and politics. I use reports, articles, and expert opinions to find these trends. It's also crucial to spot early signs of big shifts or new opportunities. This helps us stay ahead and make smart choices.

To choose and rank the best scenarios for our organization, I focus on the key uncertainties that could change our future. I use brainstorming and voting to find out which factors are both important and unsure. We aim to pick two or three of these uncertainties that will really matter. For instance, how widely remote work is adopted or how much artificial intelligence is regulated can significantly shape our strategies. This way, we ensure we are prepared for various future possibilities.

When I choose scenarios for an organization, I start by focusing on what will impact us the most and what's most uncertain. Using tools like timelines or personas helps me visualize different futures. I aim for four to five detailed stories that show varied futures, each with unique names and rich details. This method helps me cover all bases and prepares us for different possibilities. It's important to think broadly and creatively to capture the full range of what might happen.

When evaluating scenarios for my organization, I begin by identifying the potential impacts and necessary actions for each situation. Techniques like SWOT analysis help me understand the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of each scenario. This understanding allows me to see which actions, such as creating partnerships or launching initiatives, will best prepare us. I focus on scenarios that align with our goals and can be acted upon effectively. For instance, implementing a remote work policy could significantly boost employee productivity and engagement.

One powerful thing to come out of a scenario exercise is the inevitable surprise. This could be: a trend that only Cassandras warned about, that turn out to be predetermined with major consequences. (The emergence of a pandemic, the populist backlash against immigration and meritocracy, advances in battery technology, etc.) Another is the "skin of our teeth" option: the ideas that help humanity squeak out of crises, that only a few people see ahead of time. Right now, these include explainable AI, industry alliances around carbon mitigation, repopulation of extinct animals, and (in my view) the advance of semi-geography in geopolitics.

Most of the literature on scenario planning suggests stating the purpose of the scenario planning project before identifying your focal question.