How do you manage drilling project feasibility?

The economic analysis should estimate the costs and benefits of the drilling project, and compare them with the alternative options or scenarios. The economic analysis should also account for the uncertainties and sensitivities that may affect the economic performance of the drilling project

Quite often the success of a Drilling project is measured in cost. Narrowly defining scope and objectives are critical to avoiding scope creep. This step is best done very formally, and in writing, so it can potentially be used later to support the Management of Change process.

In geothermal, the economic analysis should estimate the costs and benefits of the drilling project, and compare them with the alternative options or scenarios. The project scope should also be flexible enough to accommodate changes and uncertainties that may arise during the project execution.

In addition, drilling programs often cost the company in overall cost inefficiency by taking short cuts that look beneficial in drilling side when running casing (faster run time doesn't always equal better costs, formation damage can occur) and conditioning well bore prior to cement jobs. This often leads to costly remedial repairs and delays bringing on well production. An extreme case was the BP Gulf of Mexico disaster, but is not the only example I know of. The best paying wells and fields are when the company has production people involved in real time with their drilling department. When your well comes on with minimum extra time between drilling complete and full production flow the more net profits for the company.

Managing drilling project feasibility involves assessing and mitigating risks, evaluating technical and financial viability, and ensuring alignment with project goals.Clearly outline the project's purpose, scope, and deliverables. ~Conduct feasibility studies: Assess technical, financial, and environmental aspects, including: - Geological and geophysical surveys - Drilling and completion costs - Production potential and reserves - Environmental impact and regulations - Market demand and pricing ~Evaluate risks and uncertainties: Identify potential risks, such as: - Geological uncertainties - Drilling and operational hazards - Regulatory and political risks - Market fluctuations

Risk analysis has always been a critical step in the drilling design phase. In the past this was more of an art. Now using a properly digitized and QC'ed database along with well thought out data analytics tools, this is easier and more thorough than ever. The part that still takes experience is the "what if" analysis of the design. Unfortunately, you have to have lived through some problems to imagine the things that can happen.

Technical evaluation is one of the key steps of drilling feasibility analysis. Hydraulics, Cementing and Torque&Drag simulations define the drilling feasibility of a project. Nowadays, wellbore strengthening becomes a must especially in mature fields where huge depleted exists as a result of production.

In my experience, when conducting the economic analysis for a drilling project, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of employing stochastic cost estimations over deterministic ones. Stochastic estimations offer several advantages in this context: Risk Assessment: Stochastic estimations consider the inherent uncertainties and variability in drilling projects, providing a more realistic outlook of potential risks. Probability Distribution: the most difficult task is to get the right distribution for the variables involved such as ROP and flat times. Sensitivity Analysis: Stochastic analysis facilitates sensitivity assessments, helping identify the key factors that have the most significant impact on the project's economic performance

One thing that we need to have in mind is the need for an unbiased feasibility study, one that refrains from subjective outcomes. The objective assessment of a drilling project's feasibility is paramount. In practice, it's common, in my experience, for human bias to creep in, as we might be inclined to 'make it work' due to our innate desire for project success. While enthusiasm and determination are admirable traits, they should not compromise the integrity of our feasibility study. An unbiased feasibility study should remain immune to any undue influence, ensuring that the assessment remains grounded in facts and data.

The vast amount of operational data, and previous outcomes that can be stored by digital solutions, along with its extremely fast (and getting faster) analytical capacity, produce predictive and prescriptive reports that can facilitate and expedite the decision making for safe and swift results. Final decision though, will still be on experienced humans, with specific tactical decision that will add up to the data collected.