Agile estimation is the process of assigning a relative value to the size, complexity, and uncertainty of a user story or feature. It helps you plan and prioritize your backlog, allocate resources, and track progress. But how do you know if your agile estimates are accurate and reliable? Here are some tips to improve your estimation skills.
One of the common pitfalls of agile estimation is using different units of measurement for different stories or tasks, such as hours, days, points, or t-shirt sizes. This can lead to confusion and inconsistency. To avoid this, choose one unit that works best for your team and stick to it. For example, you can use story points to represent the relative effort necessary to complete a story, regardless of time or complexity. Story points are based on your team's experience, skills, and velocity, and they can be adjusted over time as you learn more.
A correction: Story Points are not regardless of time or complexity, they are influenced by risk, uncertainty, and complexity, and ultimately do represent effort (time).
Or, Focus on understanding the value created before trying to get better at estimating when it will be done. Delivery is the easy part.
Another way to improve your agile estimates is to compare and contrast stories with each other rather than trying to estimate them in isolation. This can help you avoid overestimating or underestimating the scope of a story, and identify any dependencies or risks. You can use techniques like planning poker, affinity mapping, or bucket sorting to facilitate this process. In planning poker, each team member assigns a story point value to a story, and reveals it simultaneously. The team then discusses any discrepancies and reaches a consensus.
Agile estimation is not a solo activity, but a collaborative one. It involves the whole team, including the product owner, developers, testers, and anyone else who has a stake in the project. By involving the whole team, you leverage their collective knowledge and perspectives, and ensure everyone is on the same page. You can also avoid biases or hidden agendas that might skew your estimates. The team should estimate together, preferably in a face-to-face setting, or using a virtual tool if remote.
Agile estimation is an ongoing process. It's important to review and refine your estimates regularly, especially when new information or feedback arise. Compare your estimates with the actual outcomes, and learn from any deviations. This can help you improve your estimation accuracy and reliability over time, and adapt to any changing requirements. Also communicate your estimates clearly and set realistic expectations with your stakeholders.
There are limits to how much you can improve your estimation accuracy and reliability over time. If you're doing complex work, it's what you don't know that makes your estimates wrong or what you believe to know that turns out to be untrue. Don't fuss wrong estimates, we make them with limited information and they will likely be wrong.
Agile estimation is a hierarchical and iterative process. So use multiple levels of estimation, depending on the level of detail and certainty you have. For example, you can use high-level estimates for your product vision, roadmap, and releases based on themes or epics. You can then use more detailed estimates for your sprints or iterations based on user stories or tasks.
Instead of doing high-level estimates, use a Now - Next - Later roadmap, where you only estimate what's in Now. Use quarters for what's in Next, and skip Later. Don't waste too much time estimating.
Agile estimation is not a static or fixed process, but a dynamic and flexible one. Seek feedback and improvement from your team, stakeholders, and customers, and use it to refine your estimation practices. Also experiment with different methods or approaches, and see what works best for your goals. And don't forget to celebrate your successes and learn from your failures, and foster a culture of continuous improvement and learning.
In Product Development, there is more risk of building the wrong things than there is in our ability to deliver. There is very little benefit to being perfectly on time with something no one uses. Until you can show what you're building is working, spend time improving that instead of improving delivery estimates. Most of what looks like estimation problems point to something else. Overcommitment, Unclear Strategy or goal, indecision.