How do you incorporate seasonality, holidays, and events into your ad inventory forecasting?

Historical Analysis: Incorporate past performance data during specific seasons, holidays, and events to identify trends and patterns for accurate forecasting. Dynamic Models: Utilize dynamic forecasting models that can adapt to changing demand during peak seasons or events, considering factors like consumer behavior shifts. Collaboration with Marketing: Maintain close collaboration with marketing teams to align ad inventory forecasts with upcoming promotions, ensuring accurate predictions for heightened demand. Flexible Strategies: Develop flexible strategies that allow for quick adjustments, optimizing ad inventory allocation in response to unexpected shifts in seasonality, holidays, or events.

Working across multiple categories of advertising businesses I've realised the importance of tracking seasonality, holidays, and events, keeping your target user base in mind. Publishers should be tracking major local events, sales, and festivals to see how they might affect their business in different geos. For example, an education app/website will see lower traffic during summers and hence lower monetisation as compared to an e-commerce app, which might see much higher traffic. Consider that the users who still use the app during low seasonality might be the loyal users of an app and you might be able to price your inventory higher than the annual average because of higher viewability and engagement rates.

I know that seasonal patterns can have a significant impact on website traffic and engagement. For instance, in the summer of 2023, a company that sells winter gear may see a decline in traffic and conversions. However, a company that sells outdoor gear could see a surge in interest as people look to enjoy the warm weather. By understanding the seasonal patterns that affect their audience, businesses can create campaigns that tap into their customers' needs and desires, driving engagement and conversions. By staying in tune with their audience, businesses can create campaigns that are relevant and resonate with their target market.

Working on the supply side and selling impressions it's extremely important to know your seasonal patterns. However, what I find more useful to track is the US consumer confidence index. By tracking sectors you can see where consumer spending will be highest and thus require advertising. By pre-empting trends you can ensure fill for inventory at the highest possible prices.

Incorporating seasonality, holidays, and events into ad inventory forecasting is crucial for optimizing ad performance. Firstly, analyze historical data to identify patterns and trends associated with specific seasons, holidays, or events. Adjust forecasting models to account for anticipated fluctuations in user behavior and ad demand during these periods.

Plan ahead by marking relevant holidays and events on your calendar that could impact your website's traffic and engagement. Monitor the demand and supply for your ad inventory during these periods and adjust your pricing and targeting strategies accordingly. This proactive approach ensures you maximize revenue opportunities during peak times.

Working in mobile advertising on the supply side the two most important dates are: -Black Friday -Mid-December shopping You're entire ad stack needs to be optimized to these two events as eCPMs can double. The most important things to do from a mobile perspective are: -Update your app-ads.txt file to ensure all demand partners can bid on your inventory -Put placements that are 80% higher than normal in your waterfall -Increase banner refresh rate for days peak days to increase your supply on high eCPM days I've been living by these three simple steps every Q4 for the last 7 years and I've never seen incremental ad revenue gains below 55%!

Ad networks can vary in strength depending on specific events and sale seasons. For example, Amazon can deliver up to 3 times higher monetization during Amazon Prime Day sales as compared to other ad-serving partners, including Google. Publishers should also consider brainstorming with demand networks to explore other avenues, such as direct deals and PMPs during local sales and events, to boost monetization for their inventory in specific geos.

I know that summer is a time of relaxation and fun, and businesses can leverage this to create engaging marketing campaigns. For example, in the summer of 2023, a fitness company could create a campaign promoting outdoor workouts that take advantage of the warm weather. This campaign could be promoted with targeted ads on LinkedIn, showcasing the company's products and services in a way that resonates with customers' desire to enjoy the outdoors. By tapping into the joy and excitement of summer, businesses can create campaigns that not only drive engagement but also connect with their audience on a personal level.

Additionally, consider creating dedicated ad campaigns tailored to seasonal themes or holiday promotions. Collaborate closely with marketing teams to align ad creatives with the spirit of the occasion. Regularly review and update forecasting models based on real-time data during these periods to adapt to changing market dynamics. By proactively integrating seasonality insights, advertisers can enhance the accuracy of their ad inventory forecasting and capitalize on opportunities presented by key events and holidays.

I know that scenario planning can be a powerful tool for preparing for uncertainties in ad inventory forecasting. By testing different assumptions and conditions, businesses can better understand how their ad inventory would perform under different scenarios. For example, a website may use scenario planning to test how their ad inventory would perform if traffic were to decrease due to a seasonal event. They could then adjust their pricing and targeting accordingly, optimizing their ad inventory allocation and ensuring maximum revenue. By using tools like Adomik or Ad-Juster to automate scenario planning, businesses can save time and resources while gaining valuable insights into their ad inventory performance.

Scenario planning helps you prepare for various outcomes and uncertainties in your ad inventory forecasting. Create and compare different scenarios using tools like Excel or Google Sheets, or automate the process with tools like Adomik or Ad-Juster. This method allows you to optimize inventory allocation and adapt quickly to changes in demand and supply.

By monitoring actual performance and comparing it with the forecast, businesses can identify gaps and deviations, and adjust their strategies accordingly. For example, a company that sells sports equipment may notice an unexpected surge in demand for a particular product, prompting them to revise their forecast and adjust their inventory allocation. By staying on top of new trends, technologies, and regulations, businesses can ensure that their forecast remains accurate and up-to-date, and communicate any changes to stakeholders and partners. By taking a proactive approach to ad inventory forecasting, businesses can maximize their revenue and stay ahead of the competition.

Treat ad inventory forecasting as an ongoing process, not a one-time task. Continuously monitor actual performance against your forecasts and update them to reflect new trends, technologies, or competitive changes. Regular updates ensure your forecasts remain accurate and actionable, keeping stakeholders informed and aligned.

learning from results is crucial to improving ad inventory forecasting. Businesses should analyze their performance and identify factors that contributed to their success or failure. For example, a company that runs a successful ad campaign may review their results to identify which targeting methods and ad formats were most effective. By soliciting feedback from advertisers, publishers, and users, businesses can better understand their needs and preferences, and use this information to refine their forecasting methods and make better decisions for future campaigns. By continuously learning and improving, businesses can stay ahead of the competition and maximize their revenue potential.

Analyze your performance to understand what worked and what didn’t, and gather feedback from advertisers, publishers, and users. Use these insights to refine your forecasting methods, models, and tools. Continuous learning and adaptation will improve your decision-making and enhance future campaign effectiveness.

Having a good relationship with your ad network demand partners is more important in inventory forecasting than you think. Ad monetization managers often think that demand is a never-ending tap of impressions. However in reality the loudest publishers and the ones with the best relationships with demand partners tend to get higher Ad ARPDAUs. Sharing your forecasts with demand partners helps them also pre-empt clients and ensures you have high fill rate at a high eCPM.