How can you use scenario planning to prepare for future challenges?

2 How to create scenarios?

To create scenarios, you need to first define the scope and purpose of your scenario planning. What is the main question or problem you want to address? What is the time horizon and geographic scope of your scenarios? Who are the key stakeholders and decision-makers involved? Next, you need to identify the driving forces and uncertainties that may influence your scenarios. These can be external factors, such as social, economic, political, technological, environmental, or legal trends, or internal factors, such as your goals, values, resources, or capabilities. You can use tools such as PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis, or stakeholder mapping to help you with this step. Then, you need to select the most critical and uncertain factors, and use them to create a matrix or a diagram that shows the different combinations of these factors. These combinations will form the basis of your scenarios. For each scenario, you need to develop a narrative that describes the main features, events, and outcomes of that future. You can use tools such as storytelling, visualizations, or simulations to help you with this step.

3 How to evaluate scenarios?

To evaluate scenarios, you need to compare and contrast them based on their likelihood, desirability, feasibility, and impact. You can use tools such as probability-impact matrix, scenario axes, or scenario cross-impact analysis to help you with this step. You need to assess how each scenario aligns with your goals, values, and preferences, and how it affects your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. You also need to consider how robust, flexible, and resilient each scenario is, and how it responds to changes or shocks. You need to identify the common elements, differences, and trade-offs among the scenarios, and the implications for your decisions and actions.

4 How to use scenarios?

To use scenarios, you need to apply them to your problem-solving process. You can use scenarios to generate and test different options, solutions, or strategies for your problem. You can use tools such as decision trees, cost-benefit analysis, or risk analysis to help you with this step. You need to evaluate how each option, solution, or strategy performs under each scenario, and how it balances the short-term and long-term outcomes. You also need to consider the ethical, social, and environmental aspects of each option, solution, or strategy. You need to select the best option, solution, or strategy based on your criteria and preferences, and communicate it clearly and convincingly to your stakeholders and decision-makers. You also need to monitor and review your option, solution, or strategy regularly, and adjust it as needed based on the changes or feedback from the scenarios.

5 Benefits of scenario planning

Scenario planning can help you improve your problem-solving skills in several ways, such as expanding your perspective and creativity by exploring different futures and possibilities, enhancing your critical thinking and analytical skills by evaluating different scenarios and their implications, strengthening your decision-making and action-taking skills by applying scenarios to your problem-solving process, increasing your preparedness and confidence by anticipating and adapting to future challenges and opportunities, and reducing your uncertainty and risk by identifying and mitigating potential threats and crises.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?